My case against Jarvis Jones (1 Viewer)

[Beerman84]

What does Jarvis Jones, Nick Fairley, Antonio Coleman, Carlos Dunlap, Marcus Howard, Jamaal Anderson, Willie Evans, and David Pollack all have in common?

Answer: They're the last 8 SEC sack leaders. Not a single Pro Bowler or impact player on that list. 2004 NCAA Division I-A College Football Individual Statistics Leaders for Defense - ESPN

Wait, it gets better. Here are the names that sit on the list of top SEC sack performances of the past decade:

Willie Evans
Jarvis Jones
Jamaal Anderson
Jadeveon Clowney
Demontre Moore
Nick Fairley
Quentin Moses
Derrick Harvey
Marcus Howard
Jake Bequette
Jouston Houston
Antonio Coleman
Wallace Gilberry
Greg Hardy
Chris Smith
Corey Lemonier
Courtney Upshaw
Carlos Dunlap
Quentin Groves
Charles Johnson
Sam Montgomery
Melvin Ingram
Carlos Dunlap
Eric Norwood
Jeremy Jarmon
Melvin Oliver

Southeastern Conference Single Season Leaders and Records for Sacks | College Football at Sports-Reference.com

There is one guy on this list, Charles Johnson, who I would deem an "impact player." Clowney should be one also, but he also has the athletic freak measureables that are necessary for the NFL game. Unfortunately, the athletic freak that also has the production a la Julius Peppers or Mario Williams or J.J. Watt, does not exist in this draft.

So no, Jones' stats do not speak for themselves. There is a reason why athletic freaks like Jordan, Mingo, and Ansah, who don't have outstanding production, are all projected to go ahead of Jones. It's because they're better NFL prospects and their games are projected to translate better to the NFL game.

There aren't any 245 pound pass rushing specialists out there that run a 4.92. And that's all Jones would be at this level, a pass rush specialist, because he darn sure isn't going to be covering anybody. James Harrison, who is slow, but not 4.92 slow, is the exception, not the rule.

We should not ignore a guy's workout #s. You can get away with not being an exceptional athlete at the college level, but you typically cannot at the NFL level.

Danny Weurfell and Troy Davis both produced in college, but neither was a great athlete and failed in the NFL. The same principle can apply to Jones. He lacks explosion, lacks pass rush moves, and quite frankly, fell into a lot of his sacks and/or had easy paths to the QB on playaction zone read plays.

I think he could potential be a decent player, but I think any chance of him being a blue chip prospect has gone out the window. If NFL scouts truly thought his game would translate perfectly from the college game to the pro game, he'd be a top 3 pick.

In most cases, to be a successful NFL player, you have to also be an exceptional athlete, and Jarvis Jones just isn't that.

Is there a chance Jones can beat the odds and be a success? Yes. But this would be a very risky pick IMHO. Between Jones' bad workout, the 4.92 speed, the reported laziness, the high bust rate of SEC sack leaders, and the spinal stenosis, I just think it is too much of a risk. I'd rather let someone else roll the dice on him.

History says at least 5 of the top 15 picks will be busts. It's about time we start trying to identify which ones have the "best" opportunity of being one of those 5. Personally, I think Jones fits the bill.

Not that you don't make an argument that makes me think, but that list is really misleading. A lot of those guys were later draft picks anyway. Dunlap's scored 20 sacks in three years, Greg Hardy just racked up 11 last year for Carolina. Fairley had 5.5 last year and he's a DT. Johnson, as you noted, is pretty good. Some of those guys are listed for no reason because they haven't played in the league yet, and a couple are on there with just one year of experience.

For a more accurate read, Jones should be compared to the other first round caliber guys. Dunlap, Harvey, Anderson and Fairley were all first rounders (I could be missing a few but didn't check all of them). Dunlap's done well. Fairley has done well at least as a pass rusher (5.5 sacks is pretty high for a DT). The other two were busts. That's a small sample size to really draw from.

And a couple of the other guys on your list far exceeded expectations. Hardy was a 6th rounder, Johnson a 3rd.Wallace Gilberry's turned into a pretty solid player, and he was undrafted.Justin Houston went in the 3rd and has been really good, 15 sacks in just two years.

 

[bigcobra]

OK...so I'm not allowed to disagree now. Ok you win. Jones's stats are a warning sign. We should definitely avoid him.

This is a classic case of slanted reasoning, and everybody is on board with it.

That post was directed to this comment you made:

"I'm pretty sure you're not discussing any other potential Saints picks"

In a thread titled My Case against Jarvis Jones, why would you expect him to discuss anything other than his case against Jarvis Jones?

 

[St. Geezy]

Not that you don't make an argument that makes me think, but that list is really misleading. A lot of those guys were later draft picks anyway. Dunlap's scored 20 sacks in three years, Greg Hardy just racked up 11 last year for Carolina. Fairley had 5.5 last year and he's a DT. Johnson, as you noted, is pretty good. Some of those guys are listed for no reason because they haven't played in the league yet, and a couple are on there with just one year of experience.

For a more accurate read, Jones should be compared to the other first round caliber guys. Dunlap, Harvey, Anderson and Fairley were all first rounders (I could be missing a few but didn't check all of them). Dunlap's done well. Fairley has done well at least as a pass rusher (5.5 sacks is pretty high for a DT). The other two were busts. That's a small sample size to really draw from.

And a couple of the other guys on your list far exceeded expectations. Hardy was a 6th rounder, Johnson a 3rd.

This is all true, and I am glad this thread is somewhat getting back on track.

However I would like to point out, prior to the combine/workout process, Jones was indeed a consensus projected top 5 pick and sat #1 on Mel Kiper's Big Board all season long.

 

[RazorOye]

Virtually every fan of Jones' only argument is "the production speaks for itself."

is "production" code for "sacks" only? And "virtually every"? I don't think so. Once again, you are playing with statistical terms in very lazy ways to support a point that is otherwise very weak on its own.

I pointed out stats only because I am trying to illustrate that they don't always matter when trying to project.

Your thread is the "case against Jarvis Jones" and it's based on a single stat. So either they matter, and your case here has a shred of merit. Or they don't matter and you're case invalidates itself.

the only rebuttable for his defenders.

No, it's not. "Only"?

You use terms like "always" and "only" and "every" pretty indiscriminately.

Sorry you don't understand the game of football or football analysis.

I am not the most football savvy person on the SSF, this is true. But I know enough that you don't have anything that remotely constitutes "analysis."

And even football analysis falls under general analytical things like statistics and logic and argumentation. I understand all of those pretty well and the critical and research and argumentative skills translate across disciplines, including football.

Sorry you don't understand the game of logic and research and statistics and argumentation and verifiability and reliability and relevance and credibility and any of the other rules that guide "analysis" - football or not

 

[HennessyRob]

No offense, but I doubt the coaching staff will take your information into consideration tonight.

This site is to talk to fellow Who Dat's, not the Coaching Staff.

 

[RazorOye]

Just because an analysis does not make a definitive statement however does not mean it is not analysis.

you use "analysis" like John Clayton uses "Elite Quarterback" when he includes Matt Ryan in his list

<iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/G2y8Sx4B2Sk" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[Nightshade]

For some reason I can see this turning into a case against saintaholic a court case that leads to a restraining order that is.

We know you don't like the guy but this is just an unhealthy obsession at this point.


Posted from Saintsreport.com App for Android

 

[St. Geezy]

is "production" code for "sacks" only? And "virtually every"? I don't think so. Once again, you are playing with statistical terms in very lazy ways to support a point that is otherwise very weak on its own.



Your thread is the "case against Jarvis Jones" and it's based on a single stat. So either they matter, and your case here has a shred of merit. Or they don't matter and you're case invalidates itself.



No, it's not. "Only"?

You use terms like "always" and "only" and "every" pretty indiscriminately.



I am not the most football savvy person on the SSF, this is true. But I know enough that you don't have anything that remotely constitutes "analysis."

And even football analysis falls under general analytical things like statistics and logic and argumentation. I understand all of those pretty well and the critical and research and argumentative skills translate across disciplines, including football.

Sorry you don't understand the game of logic and research and statistics and argumentation and verifiability and reliability and relevance and credibility and any of the other rules that guide "analysis" - football or not

I've been on this board a long time and have never once found the need to use the ignore button. Posts like these from you have become a pattern. Not just with me, but with many others on this forum. I won't use the button, but consider this your warning that I probably won't be responding to any more of your posts, so don't waste your time with your long, drawn out rebuttals on me anymore.

Your posts too often have a "forum police" vibe to them.

 

[WhoDat?DrewDat]

Absolutely, and I am not denying that at all.

I like several prospects at 15: Vaccarro, Ansah (likely not there), Rhodes, the WRs, etc. Heck, I even like his teammate, Ogletree, better.

I think something that you are leaving out, about JJ is his play making ability. Like I previously stated, nobody else in this entire draft can completely take over a game like Jarvis can. When there are crucial times in big games, Jarvis constantly steps up and makes plays, something that cant be measured.

I find it interesting that your twisting Jarvis's greatest positive against him. Producing at an elite level when asked is a positive trait, just because he did not run the fastest 40 time does not mean he cant play in the NFL. Such as these 4 examples. Now, granted Jones ranks in the bottom half of my list im just using it as an example. Each player is different so saying they cant make it because of what other players couldn't accomplish is unfair.

Terrell Suggs - 4.84
Tamba Hali - 4.87
Paul Kruger - 5.0
Elvis Dumervile - 4.75

 

[GeaxSaints44]

For some reason I can see this turning into a case against saintaholic a court case that leads to a restraining order that is.

We know you don't like the guy but this is just an unhealthy obsession at this point.


Posted from Saintsreport.com App for Android

This is what I've been trying to say. I'm not AGAINST Jones, or any other pick for that matter. I just feel like too much focus has been placed Jones in a negative sense. What if he's our pick tonight? Will there be threads calling him a bust before he sets foot on the field?

 

[nolafan33]

Nick Fairley, Antonio Coleman, Carlos Dunlap, Marcus Howard, Jamaal Anderson, Willie Evans, and David Pollack

What's really funny is that I would jump at the chance to have Fairley and Dunlap on this team.

The rest of those guys? Coleman was a UDFA, Howard went in the 5th, Evans was a UDFA, and Pollack obviously had a career ending injury. So I'm not sure what they have to do with Jones?

I'm also not sure what exactly the op is trying to say.

 

[Beerman84]

This is all true, and I am glad this thread is somewhat getting back on track.

However I would like to point out, prior to the combine/workout process, Jones was indeed a consensus projected top 5 pick and sat #1 on Mel Kiper's Big Board all season long.

Right, which either makes him a ? and also a potential absurd value. Not saying you're wrong on that, but that comes down to the Saints (or anybody's) evaluation of him on film as to if they want to take the risk.

I get the larger point that "you can't just cite production" as a guarantee, which is true. Jones isn't a guarantee, but I wouldn't avoid him based on the listed players at all.

 

[Beerman84]

I think something that you are leaving out, about JJ is his play making ability. Like I previously stated, nobody else in this entire draft can completely take over a game like Jarvis can. When there are crucial times in big games, Jarvis constantly steps up and makes plays, something that cant be measured.

I find it interesting that your twisting Jarvis's greatest positive against him. Producing at an elite level when asked is a positive trait, just because he did not run the fastest 40 time does not mean he cant play in the NFL. Such as these 4 examples. Now, granted Jones ranks in the bottom half of my list im just using it as an example. Each player is different so saying they cant make it because of what other players couldn't accomplish is unfair.

Terrell Suggs - 4.84
Tamba Hali - 4.87
Paul Kruger - 5.0
Elvis Dumervile - 4.75

Suggs is the guy most often compared to Jones that I've seen. Being explosive in a short area is more important to what these guys do IMO.

 

[St. Geezy]

I think something that you are leaving out, about JJ is his play making ability. Like I previously stated, nobody else in this entire draft can completely take over a game like Jarvis can. When there are crucial times in big games, Jarvis constantly steps up and makes plays, something that cant be measured.

I find it interesting that your twisting Jarvis's greatest positive against him. Producing at an elite level when asked is a positive trait, just because he did not run the fastest 40 time does not mean he cant play in the NFL. Such as these 4 examples. Now, granted Jones ranks in the bottom half of my list im just using it as an example. Each player is different so saying they cant make it because of what other players couldn't accomplish is unfair.

Terrell Suggs - 4.84
Tamba Hali - 4.87
Paul Kruger - 5.0
Elvis Dumervile - 4.75

Here is the thing though:

Suggs: 6-3, 260 (Suggs is also a special case, by the way, as he broke the NCAA sack record with 24)
Hali: 6-3, 275
Kruger: 6-4, 270
Dumervil (4.75 is much faster than 4.92 by the way): 5-11 260
Jones: 6-2, 245