PFF - have y'all seen this (2 Viewers)

[2024InjuryApocalypse]

I think outside people should be able to acknowledge we have a realistic SHOT at winning the division b/c our division is so weak but Saints fans also need to acknowledge we have a lot of question marks (can Carr lead a team to the playoffs again, can Allen not drive the car off a cliff, can our OL have a competent year, can we avoid horribly bad injury luck, will we get anything out of Michael Thomas, etc.).

 

[jahsoul357]

But I was agreeng with you.

Or wasn't I?

You're so busy replying on so many different fronts to try to justify why Carr isn't actually that good, it must be hard to keep up with who's saying what

Who said Carr isn't good. If you actually read the 2 things that I'm critical about with Carr, it is his RZ issues and his TD rate.

Because that's the year you (cherry) picked, when you unilaterally decided that red zone passing TD percentage was more important than redzone passing completion percentage.

Nope...I picked 2021 to show the difference between the Saints in the RZ in 2021 and the Saints in the RZ in 2022. I said that multiple time and I see that I have to reiterate. The Saints in 2021 was a better RZ team than the Saints in 2022, with the latter having better weapons. If you read any of my takes on the red zone, you know I put a lot on coaching. But let's be real here, completion percentage in the RZ doesn't mean crap. There has never been a single season where Derek Carr was more accurate than Andy Dalton was in the red zone last season. How did that pan out? TD Rate always outweighs completion percentage.

That's what cherry picking is, selectively choosing only the criteria that suit your desired end result.

And what was the end result?

By the way, I just happen to notice that whatever stats you do happen to look up 'for grins and giggles', they just so happen to show one of our backup QBs in a very positive light. Every. Single. Time.

The guy's name is Jameis Winston.

Maybe for even more grins and giggles, you should should tell us who, objectively of course, should be the Saints starting QB? I think it could be valuable insight

Apparently, Jameis is living rent free in your head because I listed every Saints QB that qualified for the 150+ attempts in the RZ over the past 5 seasons and then I listed every Saints QB that had attempts in the RZ in 2021. The fact that YOU chose to single out Jameis points to 2 things:
-He is up there rent free
-You had no idea about him in the RZ

You are trying to turn this into a Jameis thing but, from a metrics standpoint, all 3 QBs in 2021 are shown in a positive light compared to Carr in the RZ. (2021 Carr - 47/93 (50.54%), 290 yards, 18TD/3INTs, 19.3% TD Rate, 83.33 Passer Rating). We don't know if it was coaching, Carr not being able to perform with a smaller field, or both, but this season will be key to seeing if it is correctable.

This is my last time saying this, as I've said it once before. Bringing up stats and metrics when comparing Jameis and DC4 is futile, because the majority of them favor Jameis. Also, bringing up their situations with their past teams net the same result because the only difference is Carr got better coaching and a better run game. We gave Carr a $150 million contract because he is DA's "guy" and honestly, that all it takes. He is wearing the Black and Gold and when the season starts, I will be rooting for him to crush every team we face (even though I got us winning 10..lol)

 

[dvdman]

And I say they go 12-5.

PFF has as much credibility as I do and that’s not a compliment. lol

 

[TribuneUK]

I do enjoy that you have a back story, and you stick to it religiously. It's not going to be mistaken for method acting, but you could get a few lines in the high school play with that act. It's delightful.

So anyway, you didn't answer the question.

You always post your bowl of cherries with JW somehow sitting on the top. Try to call it off as happenstance if you wish. I know what I see.

I'll ask you the same question again, just in case you think I missed the non-answer:

Maybe for even more grins and giggles, you should should tell us who, objectively of course, should be the Saints starting QB? I think it could be valuable insight

 

[jahsoul357]

I do enjoy that you have a back story, and you stick to it religiously. It's not going to be mistaken for method acting, but you could get a few lines in the high school play with that act. It's delightful.

So anyway, you didn't answer the question.

You always post your bowl of cherries with JW somehow sitting on the top. Try to call it off as happenstance if you wish. I know what I see.

Actually, if you read the thread, you would know that Drew Brees was sitting on top of that "bowl of cherries" in this discussion. Also, regarding "happenstance," please reread this part:

This is my last time saying this, as I've said it once before. Bringing up stats and metrics when comparing Jameis and DC4 is futile, because the majority of them favor Jameis. Also, bringing up their situations with their past teams net the same result because the only difference is Carr got better coaching and a better run game. We gave Carr a $150 million contract because he is DA's "guy" and honestly, that all it takes. He is wearing the Black and Gold and when the season starts, I will be rooting for him to crush every team we face (even though I got us winning 10..lol)

There is no such thing as happenstance when a "standard" is set.

I'll ask you the same question again, just in case you think I missed the non-answer:

I gave my answer; DA made his pick and that's who I'm rocking with. And I gave that answer because I don't think you really want to talk football, but I'll indulge you.

Objectively, it is all on the crafted offense.

If DA wants the offense of "Broken Brees (2017-2020)," then Carr would be the better choice. If DA wanted the offense of "Brees of Times Past (2008-2015)," then Jameis would be the better choice. "Why" you ask? Familiarity.

2017-2020 Brees ran a WCO while 2006-2015 Brees ran a Coryell based offense.
*Carr has been in a WCO since college and the vast majority of his time in the league, with the exception of last season. McDaniels runs the Erhardt-Perkins system, which is a total departure from what Carr is used to. Not much to say about the WCO offense, as our media outlets talk enough about it...lol
*In college, Jameis ran what Jimbo Fisher calls "Multiple Offense," which at its core is the Erhardt-Perkins system (same set of concepts ran from a lot of formations). He comes into the league and Lovie Smith decides that it is going to be Air Coryell for him. He ran that system all the way up to "No Risk It, No Biscuit" and if folks were really paying attention to the 2021 season, they could see where our offense was trending.

The way you read the field is completely different and it relies on different "strengths." Jameis and DC4 both have identical completion percentages from behind the line to the 10 yard line, so it is not a case of "can they make the throw" but the throws and reads that they are used to making. The divide is the intermediate throws; this is Jameis' bread and butter (no one has thrown that pass more in the league since 2015) and this is always where your reads "start" in a Coryell, as the Coryell is normally a "Top Down" read (pick your poison but the deeper route is usually the first read. Think Prime Brees dropping back and looking downfield first before coming back down to the checkdown) while WCO is side to side. Jameis also throws this much better than Carr..like much better. This is also where raw numbers on passes over 20+ yards gets "screwy" but that's another topic.

WCO - Carr all day
Air Coryell or Erhardt-Perkins - Winston without even thinking

Now personally, if I had to pick a QB to build my system around between those 2, I would pick Jameis every day of the week; why?
*When DC4 got into a completely different and complex system with a crazy coach, his TD rate went up but his completion percentage dropped, his yards per game went down, and his interception rate increased.
*When Jameis got into a completely different and complex system with a crazy coach, his TD rate went up, his yards per game went, his completion percentage dropped, his interception rate exploded, but he still led the #3 team in both scoring and yards WITHOUT a run game.

But when you actually peel back the layers of that 2019 season, it shows a lot more and for those that really know football know that we dodge a bullet with the Bucs thinking short term vs long term. Because the truth is, both Carr and Winston would have been much better 2nd season in McDaniels' and Arians' systems, respectively. Imagine a QB throwing 5k yards and 33TDs in what is said to be their worst season because they are still learning the system and then things "click."

 

[TribuneUK]

Actually, if you read the thread, you would know that Drew Brees was sitting on top of that "bowl of cherries" in this discussion. Also, regarding "happenstance," please reread this part:



There is no such thing as happenstance when a "standard" is set.



I gave my answer; DA made his pick and that's who I'm rocking with. And I gave that answer because I don't think you really want to talk football, but I'll indulge you.

Objectively, it is all on the crafted offense.

If DA wants the offense of "Broken Brees (2017-2020)," then Carr would be the better choice. If DA wanted the offense of "Brees of Times Past (2008-2015)," then Jameis would be the better choice. "Why" you ask? Familiarity.

2017-2020 Brees ran a WCO while 2006-2015 Brees ran a Coryell based offense.
*Carr has been in a WCO since college and the vast majority of his time in the league, with the exception of last season. McDaniels runs the Erhardt-Perkins system, which is a total departure from what Carr is used to. Not much to say about the WCO offense, as our media outlets talk enough about it...lol
*In college, Jameis ran what Jimbo Fisher calls "Multiple Offense," which at its core is the Erhardt-Perkins system (same set of concepts ran from a lot of formations). He comes into the league and Lovie Smith decides that it is going to be Air Coryell for him. He ran that system all the way up to "No Risk It, No Biscuit" and if folks were really paying attention to the 2021 season, they could see where our offense was trending.

The way you read the field is completely different and it relies on different "strengths." Jameis and DC4 both have identical completion percentages from behind the line to the 10 yard line, so it is not a case of "can they make the throw" but the throws and reads that they are used to making. The divide is the intermediate throws; this is Jameis' bread and butter (no one has thrown that pass more in the league since 2015) and this is always where your reads "start" in a Coryell, as the Coryell is normally a "Top Down" read (pick your poison but the deeper route is usually the first read. Think Prime Brees dropping back and looking downfield first before coming back down to the checkdown) while WCO is side to side. Jameis also throws this much better than Carr..like much better. This is also where raw numbers on passes over 20+ yards gets "screwy" but that's another topic.

WCO - Carr all day
Air Coryell or Erhardt-Perkins - Winston without even thinking

Now personally, if I had to pick a QB to build my system around between those 2, I would pick Jameis every day of the week; why?
*When DC4 got into a completely different and complex system with a crazy coach, his TD rate went up but his completion percentage dropped, his yards per game went down, and his interception rate increased.
*When Jameis got into a completely different and complex system with a crazy coach, his TD rate went up, his yards per game went, his completion percentage dropped, his interception rate exploded, but he still led the #3 team in both scoring and yards WITHOUT a run game.

But when you actually peel back the layers of that 2019 season, it shows a lot more and for those that really know football know that we dodge a bullet with the Bucs thinking short term vs long term. Because the truth is, both Carr and Winston would have been much better 2nd season in McDaniels' and Arians' systems, respectively. Imagine a QB throwing 5k yards and 33TDs in what is said to be their worst season because they are still learning the system and then things "click."

Thanks for confirming Jameis. Doesn't it just feel better to be honest?

 

[jahsoul357]

Thanks for confirming Jameis. Doesn't it just feel better to be honest?

I've been nothing but honest on here and any objective person would understand reasoning but again, I figured that you didn't want to really talk football.

 

[Rexman100]

Carr was probably the best QB option leaving out a never-would’ve-happened trade for Rodgers, I’m not going to argue against that.

On DA, the more I think about it, the more he seems like a virtual lock to be our coach in 2024, barring a total team implosion in 2023. Carr left Vegas to get away from the never ending coaching changes and lack of stability, so I’m having a hard time believing we will fire the coach that played a big role in Carr joining our team just one year after he joins the team.

Besides that, Carr’s down year is blamed on the change in offensive systems while his success is assumed based on his experience in our system. Firing DA means new HC, and I don’t know that the Saints will hire the guy that is suing the league to prevent Carr from having to learn yet another offensive system.

Good point about the Saints hiring a coach that is in the process of suing the league. I don't mean the sole reason they'd hire him would be to maximize Carrs remaining years. But it would be a sizable box being checked. The main box that would be checked is getting a coach that is as good or better than SP.

At a time when his stock price is dirt cheap. (they both have SB wins) And the Raiders were on a fast track to the playoffs until the email thing happened.

 

[Rexman100]

I've been nothing but honest on here and any objective person would understand reasoning but again, I figured that you didn't want to really talk football.

Jameis is a victim of bad luck. Under SP he was nervous and stiff and played uncomfortable, he needed time that injures didnt allow. And when he was finally healthy we were far into the season and we couldnt afford to regress, but only improve. A bench player off of an injury isnt likely to light it up considering how nervous he was during the time of injury. The Air Coreyall offense obviously was created in the early 80's at San Diego. But a more recent example is the Rams and Mike Martz. I disagree with you that Carr would do worse than JW. JW has never proved that he can throw at a high completion rate. He's never thrown better that 63.5 at the Saints, in 2018 : 64.6. Kurt Warners best years : 67.7 and 68.7. Carrs best years: 68.4. 68.9 and 70.4. I see JW better in the Erhardt-Perkins where he can utilize his legs and improvise. Like i said hes a victim of bad luck. I hope he gets a chance to mature as a QB on a team.

 

[jahsoul357]

Jameis is a victim of bad luck. Under SP he was nervous and stiff and played uncomfortable, he needed time that injures didnt allow. And when he was finally healthy we were far into the season and we couldnt afford to regress, but only improve. A bench player off of an injury isnt likely to light it up considering how nervous he was during the time of injury. The Air Coreyall offense obviously was created in the early 80's at San Diego. But a more recent example is the Rams and Mike Martz. I disagree with you that Carr would do worse than JW. JW has never proved that he can throw at a high completion rate. He's never thrown better that 63.5 at the Saints, in 2018 : 64.6. Kurt Warners best years : 67.7 and 68.7. Carrs best years: 68.4. 68.9 and 70.4. I see JW better in the Erhardt-Perkins where he can utilize his legs and improvise. Like i said hes a victim of bad luck. I hope he gets a chance to mature as a QB on a team.

Completion percentage is TRICKY..lol. According to SISDatahub, Carr and WInston are identical from behind the line to 10 yards, Jameis has a better completion percentage from 10-20, and Carr has a better completion percentage in 20+ yards. Due to the increase of "dink and dunk" QBs, completion percentages were skewed and that's why they began to try to formulate things like CPOE. We are judging the completion percentage between one QB whose career average depth of throw is 10 yards per throw to another QB whose career average depth is 7.5 yards. Whether fair or not, they are view equally in the eyes of most.

 

[Rexman100]

Completion percentage is TRICKY..lol. According to SISDatahub, Carr and WInston are identical from behind the line to 10 yards, Jameis has a better completion percentage from 10-20, and Carr has a better completion percentage in 20+ yards. Due to the increase of "dink and dunk" QBs, completion percentages were skewed and that's why they began to try to formulate things like CPOE. We are judging the completion percentage between one QB whose career average depth of throw is 10 yards per throw to another QB whose career average depth is 7.5 yards. Whether fair or not, they are view equally in the eyes of most.

Carr was ascending like a rocket under Gruden. I noticed it even as a Saints fan. They were building something special until it was de-railed. LV fans must’ve felt snake bitten. They waited patiently for years thru many coaches and staffs to finally hit on one. But as quickly as it rose it fell. Then a new coach comes in and it was an immediate fail, back to the beginning. Regardless if Carr or their weak defense was at fault, too much time has passed if youre a Raider fan, you have to tear it down and start over. Rather than going thru the long meticulous rebuilding process again. At least that’s the fear anyway. That’s why Carr is not a Raider. (But they should’ve gotten rid JM too). So the question is, will Carr continue where he left off and ascend in our scheme. The ans: he has to. Everything is riding on it. His career, DA and company, it’s all on the line. Also, Carr needs to spread around to the defense his sense of urgency. JW, like I said, he was about to ascend, then he got de-railed. JW would have ascended for sure, and may still somewhere else. Or here. Who knows. All of the players know it’s about opportunities. You get one, you better step the F up. And hope you don’t get injured. (DB learned the art of not getting injured)

 

[David Robbins]

Actually, if you read the thread, you would know that Drew Brees was sitting on top of that "bowl of cherries" in this discussion. Also, regarding "happenstance," please reread this part:



There is no such thing as happenstance when a "standard" is set.



I gave my answer; DA made his pick and that's who I'm rocking with. And I gave that answer because I don't think you really want to talk football, but I'll indulge you.

Objectively, it is all on the crafted offense.

If DA wants the offense of "Broken Brees (2017-2020)," then Carr would be the better choice. If DA wanted the offense of "Brees of Times Past (2008-2015)," then Jameis would be the better choice. "Why" you ask? Familiarity.

2017-2020 Brees ran a WCO while 2006-2015 Brees ran a Coryell based offense.
*Carr has been in a WCO since college and the vast majority of his time in the league, with the exception of last season. McDaniels runs the Erhardt-Perkins system, which is a total departure from what Carr is used to. Not much to say about the WCO offense, as our media outlets talk enough about it...lol
*In college, Jameis ran what Jimbo Fisher calls "Multiple Offense," which at its core is the Erhardt-Perkins system (same set of concepts ran from a lot of formations). He comes into the league and Lovie Smith decides that it is going to be Air Coryell for him. He ran that system all the way up to "No Risk It, No Biscuit" and if folks were really paying attention to the 2021 season, they could see where our offense was trending.

The way you read the field is completely different and it relies on different "strengths." Jameis and DC4 both have identical completion percentages from behind the line to the 10 yard line, so it is not a case of "can they make the throw" but the throws and reads that they are used to making. The divide is the intermediate throws; this is Jameis' bread and butter (no one has thrown that pass more in the league since 2015) and this is always where your reads "start" in a Coryell, as the Coryell is normally a "Top Down" read (pick your poison but the deeper route is usually the first read. Think Prime Brees dropping back and looking downfield first before coming back down to the checkdown) while WCO is side to side. Jameis also throws this much better than Carr..like much better. This is also where raw numbers on passes over 20+ yards gets "screwy" but that's another topic.

WCO - Carr all day
Air Coryell or Erhardt-Perkins - Winston without even thinking

Now personally, if I had to pick a QB to build my system around between those 2, I would pick Jameis every day of the week; why?
*When DC4 got into a completely different and complex system with a crazy coach, his TD rate went up but his completion percentage dropped, his yards per game went down, and his interception rate increased.
*When Jameis got into a completely different and complex system with a crazy coach, his TD rate went up, his yards per game went, his completion percentage dropped, his interception rate exploded, but he still led the #3 team in both scoring and yards WITHOUT a run game.

But when you actually peel back the layers of that 2019 season, it shows a lot more and for those that really know football know that we dodge a bullet with the Bucs thinking short term vs long term. Because the truth is, both Carr and Winston would have been much better 2nd season in McDaniels' and Arians' systems, respectively. Imagine a QB throwing 5k yards and 33TDs in what is said to be their worst season because they are still learning the system and then things "click."

Are you saying that Jamie's should be starting over Derek Carr. That's ridiculous. Jamie's had his shot and he flopped.

 

[David Robbins]

Jameis is a victim of bad luck. Under SP he was nervous and stiff and played uncomfortable, he needed time that injures didnt allow. And when he was finally healthy we were far into the season and we couldnt afford to regress, but only improve. A bench player off of an injury isnt likely to light it up considering how nervous he was during the time of injury. The Air Coreyall offense obviously was created in the early 80's at San Diego. But a more recent example is the Rams and Mike Martz. I disagree with you that Carr would do worse than JW. JW has never proved that he can throw at a high completion rate. He's never thrown better that 63.5 at the Saints, in 2018 : 64.6. Kurt Warners best years : 67.7 and 68.7. Carrs best years: 68.4. 68.9 and 70.4. I see JW better in the Erhardt-Perkins where he can utilize his legs and improvise. Like i said hes a victim of bad luck. I hope he gets a chance to mature as a QB on a team.

Excellent analysis

 

[BBarnes]

It's not necessarily the completion percentage but the TD rates:
2018 - 23.7%
2019 - 20.8%
2020 -19.2%
2021 - 19.3%
2022 - 19.3%

Those are pretty bad, especially when you tie in the interceptions in the red zone. Hopefully, Sneaky Pete can scheme that clean because just for grins and giggles, I checked 2021 stats, based on volume highest number of attempts:

Siemian - 17/35 (48.8%), 123 yards, 10TDs/0INTs, 28.5% TD Rate, 97.38 passer rating (Siemian also had 1 rushing TD in the RZ)
Winston - 16/21 (76.2%), 147 yards, 11TDs/0INTs, 52.3% TD Rate, 134.33 passer rating (Winston also had 1 rushing TD in the RZ)
Taysom - 7/13 (53.9%) 46 yards. 2TD/0INTs, 15.3% TD Rate, 101.28 passer rating (Taysom also had 4 rushing TDs in the RZ)

Siemian threw TDs at a higher rate than Dalton did this past season.

His completion percentage was just a small part of the problem, you’re right.

Really I should have focused more on the 3rd down conversion rate and TD conversion rate. Both weren’t high enough. I’m not sure a td rate percentage being bad is necessarily solely a QB issue as much as a scheme issue, but we shall see. However if you’re talking td passes in the redzone then that would be of course more on the QB.

Either way, I’m happy that we have a competent QB who fits our scheme. He should do well here.