2024 Tropical Weather Thread (5 Viewers)

[Doug B]

I know our geography has us at a disadvantage, but FORK! That's bad luck.

I ask this question all the time -- and I know I've asked it in EE in the past:

Was the New Orleans area just THAT lucky between Camille (1969) and Katrina (2005)?

Kinda not counting Georges (1998) even though that was the first storm I can recall that prompted some NOLA-area residents to evacuate. Never once in the 1970s and 1980s.

 

[St. Widge]

The guy on Fox 8 did the same, and also everything @bclemms said.

Also having watched these storms for years, it was pretty clear it was going to move east. The models have improved a lot over the years and I don’t think AI has much to add here since it’s just going to aggregate data that already exists.

Payton Malone on WWL TV also spent a lot of time talking about how the NHC track had the center a good bit west of NOLA, but that there was a model showing a direct hit and since it was on the Eastern edge of the cone it still could happen. He didn't come right out and say it would happen, but he warned that there was a possibility.

But most of the day yesterday WWL just kept talking about the NHC track which you could clearly see was wrong because the storm kept moving east and got to the edge of the cone, still headed East around 2:00 p.m. It was clear to me as an amateur looking at the radar that it was going East and running through the NHC cone, but when WWL had the NHC guy on he talked about the NHC track and then just mentioned maybe it could go a little bit more East than the track shows. When asked about it he just said, everyone in SELA should just know to expect impacts from the storm.

The models give you a general idea, but they really don't know what these things are going to do once they interact with land or get close to the coast. A little jog or stall in motion can change everything. Although this march East done by Francine was pretty dramatically different than what the NHC had been saying to expect.

The other problem is that there really wasn't anything anyone could do about it by the time some of the models shifted. There wasn't time to evacuate people so you just had to stay put and hope for the best. The only other option is for all of SELA to shutdown and evacuate any time a storm gets in the Gulf and that just isn't practical on many levels. If for no other reason, you can't evacuate if your place of employment wants you to be at work.

But it's not like they aren't trying or putting resources into this. Weather is just highly unpredictable and subject to so many variables.

 

[St. Widge]

Lee Zurch was really getting upset at around midnight with the whole flooding situation. Even brought Bruce Katz into the conversation ( thats the guy who called its eastern move ) about "did we get that much rain that the pumps couldnt handle???"

Bruce attempted to be pragmatic but just couldnt - said no. Its a major problem that these pumps dont work, S&WB refuses to answer calls/questions as to why, railing on the billions that poured in post Katrina AND WE STILL CANT GET WATER PUMPED OUT and no one knows why since NO/S&WB will simply not answer questions.

They got billions after Katrina but we still have pumps that were made in 1905.

 

[buzd]

I ask this question all the time -- and I know I've asked it in EE in the past:

Was the New Orleans area just THAT lucky between Camille (1969) and Katrina (2005)?

Kinda not counting Georges (1998) even though that was the first storm I can recall that prompted some NOLA-area residents to evacuate. Never once in the 1970s and 1980s.

Wasn't Camille more Mississippi? I think you want Betsy.

 

[buzd]

Payton Malone on WWL TV also spent a lot of time talking about how the NHC track had the center a good bit west of NOLA, but that there was a model showing a direct hit and since it was on the Eastern edge of the cone it still could happen. He didn't come right out and say it would happen, but he warned that there was a possibility.

But most of the day yesterday WWL just kept talking about the NHC track which you could clearly see was wrong because the storm kept moving east and got to the edge of the cone, still headed East around 2:00 p.m. It was clear to me as an amateur looking at the radar that it was going East and running through the NHC cone, but when WWL had the NHC guy on he talked about the NHC track and then just mentioned maybe it could go a little bit more East than the track shows. When asked about it he just said, everyone in SELA should just know to expect impacts from the storm.

The models give you a general idea, but they really don't know what these things are going to do once they interact with land or get close to the coast. A little jog or stall in motion can change everything. Although this march East done by Francine was pretty dramatically different than what the NHC had been saying to expect.

The other problem is that there really wasn't anything anyone could do about it by the time some of the models shifted. There wasn't time to evacuate people so you just had to stay put and hope for the best. The only other option is for all of SELA to shutdown and evacuate any time a storm gets in the Gulf and that just isn't practical on many levels. If for no other reason, you can't evacuate if your place of employment wants you to be at work.

But it's not like they aren't trying or putting resources into this. Weather is just highly unpredictable and subject to so many variables.

I'm off WWL. The worst, IMO.

 

[St. Widge]

I think a lot of senior, experienced folks have no problem bucking the trend of the NHC when they feel they need to.

I will never forget with Katrina, the official path had the storm going north into the Florida panhandle. This one guy from either Weather Underground or Accu-Weather said he thought the NHC was wrong and that after Katrina clipped South Florida/the islands, it was going to dip south and curve towards New Orleans. The local forecasters here picked up on it next. The NHC was the last to change course.

The problem is that you never know when the guy making the seemingly outlandish prediction is right or when he is just making a guess that is going to turn out wrong.

 

[efil4stnias]

As far as the hurricane fatigue, it's real. Here are the impacts Louisiana has experienced since 2019 -

Laura - CAT4
Delta - CAT2
Barry - CAT1
Zeta - CAT3
Ida - CAT4
Francine - CAT2

I know our geography has us at a disadvantage, but FORK! That's bad luck.

Its climatology and location - bad luck would be if we were in southern hemisphere still getting same results.

This is totally different ( but i get the gist of your post )

 

[St. Widge]

Wasn't Camille more Mississippi? I think you want Betsy.

Yep. Camile destroyed Gulport/Biloxi. Betsy was the real problem for New Orleans.

 

[Sailorsaint]

It's worse than that. SWB pumps require 25Hz power (consider US power is typically 60Hz and European power is 50Hz). This means that the generators (or transformers) to power the pumps have to be custom, and fixing the generators and pumps requires specific expert knowledge.

So you have to replace all the pumps and generators (as I understand it) as it would be close to impossible (or equally expensive) to retrofit it all.

Sometimes being unique amongst our peers is not a good thing.

 

[St. Widge]

I'm off WWL. The worst, IMO.

I never watch local news anymore other than for hurricanes so I defaulted to what I watched 20 years ago which was WWL. Clearly the Chris Franklin is not the successor to the abilities of prior WWL meteorologists. I guess I'll switch to Fox 8 for the next storm.

 

[GrandAdmiral]

The problem is that you never know when the guy making the seemingly outlandish prediction is right or when he is just making a guess that is going to turn out wrong.

Except when that guy was Nash Roberts.

 

[St. Widge]

we had a global pandemic/looming existential threat staring us in the face and socially, emotionally, politically we were unprepared and unable to adapt - and that was something that, essentially, required very little on our part
this?
this slow moving, non-obvious threat that's relatively easy to ignore with anecdote and bad science, I have no expectation that we will adapt until we are forced to in the 13th hour, which will be way too late for many of us

well. that was sobering to write
efil

The thing is that we have options. First they need to update the pumps and generators. But one of the plans involved digging out the City Park Lagoons to be deeper and use them as an overflow for Lakeview and Mid City. It would provided drainage and create additional wildlife habitat since part of the plan was to essentially create large areas of wet land in under-used parts of the park. But the people who live in Lake Vista and Lake Shore (the "bird streets" and "jewel streets", etc.) fought it because they were afraid the plan would flood them despite any evidence that it would cause them any issues. So, the plan was never implemented. As usual in New Orleans, it's a problem of mustering political will to all move in the right direction.

 

[St. Widge]

Except when that guy was Nash Roberts.

True.

 

[GrandAdmiral]

I'm off WWL. The worst, IMO.

I might watch Peyton. When Chris Franklin pops up I check out another station.

I don't recognize anyone on WDSU anymore now that Margaret and Damon are both gone. WVUE is pretty much the go-to, especially now the Bob is gone. As good as Breck was, his constant trek to be Nash Roberts irked the hell out of me.

 

[St. Widge]

As far as the hurricane fatigue, it's real. Here are the impacts Louisiana has experienced since 2019 -

Laura - CAT4
Delta - CAT2
Barry - CAT1
Zeta - CAT3
Ida - CAT4
Francine - CAT2

I know our geography has us at a disadvantage, but FORK! That's bad luck.

And you forgot Isaac CAT1 in 2012. I remember it because I lived in LaPlace back then. It was a weak storm and all seemed fine and then it just sat there and pushed all of Lake Maurepas into my house.