COVID-19 Outbreak (Update: More than 2.9M cases and 132,313 deaths in US) (9 Viewers)

[B4YOU]

Just to be clear, the US is not leading the world in deaths per Capita, and it’s not even close compared to the worst hit countries in Europe. I believe this site updates their data daily, these numbers are as of 5/4.

COVID-19 deaths per capita by country | Statista

COVID deaths worldwide were highest in Peru, topping a list that compares deaths per million in 210 countries worldwide.

www.statista.com

�

	Confirmed deaths (absolute)	Population (in millions)	Deaths per million	Population Density (pop/mi2)	Deaths per mill / Pop density
Belgium	7,844	11.42	686.74	974	0.71
Spain	25,264	46.72	540.71	241	2.24
Italy	28,884	60.43	477.96	518	0.92
United Kingdom	28,446	66.49	427.83	710	0.60
France	24,864	66.99	371.18	319	1.16
Netherlands	5,056	17.23	293.42	1089	0.27
Ireland	1,303	4.85	268.47	181	1.48
Sweden	2,679	10.18	263.08	60	4.38
Switzerland	1,762	8.52	206.89	539	0.38
United States	67,580	327.17	206.56	87	2.38

I think a factor that is left out is population density. So I added that as a factor to your chart. I then divided the deaths/million by the population density per sqmi to get a factor that accounts for both. Looking at this we have Sweden which chose to do no lockdown with the worst death/million to population density factor. That should be expected as the "do nothing, herd immunity" plan was never going to get the best outcome. That is followed by the US in 2nd and Spain in 3rd.

I think it is reasonable to say the US has had the 2nd worst response by a first world country. Our delayed testing and delayed actions on closing public transportation, schools, churches, and businesses are most likely the reason for this.

 

[Saint_Ward]

This is a really good paper, but I can't really follow a lot of it, since I'm not a doctor. Maybe someone here can explain a bit about the different mutations. I'm trying to understand if the "geo marker" (my term for how they know where it came from), and if one version is really any different than another? Does the ORF1a, ORF1b, S, etc mean anything?

Features, Evaluation, and Treatment of Coronavirus (COVID-19) - StatPearls - NCBI Bookshelf

Pathophysiology
CoVs are enveloped, positive-stranded RNA viruses with nucleocapsid. For addressing pathogenetic mechanisms of SARS-CoV-2, its viral structure, and genome must be considerations. In CoVs, the genomic structure is organized in a +ssRNA of approximately 30 kb in length — the largest known RNA viruses — and with a 5′-cap structure and 3′-poly-A tail. Starting from the viral RNA, the synthesis of polyprotein 1a/1ab (pp1a/pp1ab) in the host is realized. The transcription works through the replication-transcription complex (RCT) organized in double-membrane vesicles and via the synthesis of subgenomic RNAs (sgRNAs) sequences. Of note, transcription termination occurs at transcription regulatory sequences, located between the so-called open reading frames (ORFs) that work as templates for the production of subgenomic mRNAs. In the atypical CoV genome, at least six ORFs can be present. Among these, a frameshift between ORF1a and ORF1b guides the production of both pp1a and pp1ab polypeptides that are processed by virally encoded chymotrypsin-like protease (3CLpro) or main protease (Mpro), as well as one or two papain-like proteases for producing 16 non-structural proteins (nsps). Apart from ORF1a and ORF1b, other ORFs encode for structural proteins, including spike, membrane, envelope, and nucleocapsid proteins.[1] and accessory proteic chains. Different CoVs present special structural and accessory proteins translated by dedicated sgRNAs.

Pathophysiology and virulence mechanisms of CoVs, and therefore also of SARS-CoV-2 have links to the function of the nsps and structural proteins. For instance, research underlined that nsp is able to block the host innate immune response.[7] Among functions of structural proteins, the envelope has a crucial role in virus pathogenicity as it promotes viral assembly and release. However, many of these features (e.g., those of nsp 2, and 11) have not yet been described.

Among the structural elements of CoVs, there are the spike glycoproteins composed of two subunits (S1 and S2). Homotrimers of S proteins compose the spikes on the viral surface, guiding the link to host receptors.[8] Of note, in SARS-CoV-2, the S2 subunit — containing a fusion peptide, a transmembrane domain, and cytoplasmic domain — is highly conserved. Thus, it could be a target for antiviral (anti-S2) compounds. On the contrary, the spike receptor-binding domain presents only a 40% amino acid identity with other SARS-CoVs. Other structural elements on which research must necessarily focus are the ORF3b that has no homology with that of SARS-CoVs and a secreted protein (encoded by ORF8), which is structurally different from those of SARS-CoV.

In international gene banks such as GenBank, researchers have published several Sars-CoV-2 gene sequences. This gene mapping is of fundamental importance allowing researchers to trace the phylogenetic tree of the virus and, above all, the recognition of strains that differ according to the mutations. According to recent research, a spike mutation, which probably occurred in late November 2019, triggered jumping to humans. In particular, Angeletti et al. compared the Sars-Cov-2 gene sequence with that of Sars-CoV. They analyzed the transmembrane helical segments in the ORF1ab encoded 2 (nsp2) and nsp3 and found that position 723 presents a serine instead of a glycine residue, while the position 1010 is occupied by proline instead of isoleucine.[9] The matter of viral mutations is key for explaining potential disease relapses.

Research will be needed to determine the structural characteristics of SARS-COV-2 that underlie the pathogenetic mechanisms. Compared to SARS, for example, initial clinical data show less extra respiratory involvement, although due to the lack of extensive data, it is not possible to draw definitive clinical information.

The pathogenic mechanism that produces pneumonia seems to be particularly complex. Clinical and preclinical research will have to explain many aspects that underlie the particular clinical presentations of the disease. The data so far available seem to indicate that the viral infection is capable of producing an excessive immune reaction in the host. In some cases, a reaction takes place which as a whole is labeled a 'cytokine storm'. The effect is extensive tissue damage. The protagonist of this storm is interleukin 6 (IL-6). IL-6 is produced by activated leukocytes and acts on a large number of cells and tissues. It is able to promote the differentiation of B lymphocytes, promotes the growth of some categories of cells, and inhibits the growth of others. It also stimulates the production of acute phase proteins and plays an important role in thermoregulation, in bone maintenance and in the functionality of the central nervous system. Although the main role played by IL-6 is pro-inflammatory, it can also have anti-inflammatory effects. In turn, IL-6 increases during inflammatory diseases, infections, autoimmune disorders, cardiovascular diseases and some types of cancer. It is also implicated into the pathogenesis of the cytokine release syndrome (CRS) that is an acute systemic inflammatory syndrome characterized by fever and multiple organ dysfunction.

auspice

nextstrain.org

GISAID - gisaid.org

www.gisaid.org

 

[AARPSaint]

As scientists around the world race to develop a vaccine for the coronavirus, the pandemic is also stoking a surge of activity among activists who argue that such a vaccine must be resisted.

Leaders of the anti-vaccination movement, who in recent years have seen their efforts frustrated as U.S. states have adopted stricter laws promoting the inoculation of children, are seizing on the anxiety and social unrest generated by the virus and the government attempts to contain it.

Anti-vaccination protesters have been a visible presence in recent weeks at rallies to end the lockdowns that continue in many states. But beyond the rallies and hand-painted signs, the movement’s chief organizers have launched a less confrontational but more far-reaching information campaign.

Incorporating the rhetoric honed over years to sow fear of childhood vaccines, they maintain that mandated quarantines are new evidence of government officials’ zeal to control individual health-care choices...........

https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2020/05/05/anti-vaxxers-wakefield-coronavirus-vaccine/

To me, not wearing a mask under these circumstances, refusing to get vaccinated against communicable diseases, not wearing a motorcycle or bicycle helmet, or taking precautions against accidents in general all needlessly jeopardize public health. Since public health affects everyone, it's as though the public is being literally assaulted.

 

[RKNSaint]

One thing I have learned through all this , Don’t watch FoxNews. Even the right is calling them out now.

Not sure I can name one news show or news paper you can tune into for accurate / fact based news. I occasionally catch 30-45 seconds (seconds!) of Fox, CNN, etc before getting nauseated.

 

[gboudx]

Not sure I can name one news show or news paper you can tune into for accurate / fact based news. I occasionally catch 30-45 seconds (seconds!) of Fox, CNN, etc before getting nauseated.

I stick with my local news(any channel), and ABC World New Tonight with David Muir.

 

[Saint_Ward]

Thanks for posting these. I was wondering...how do you get the trends on the JHU website by county. I'm able to get the overview of cases and deaths, but not the trends. Thanks

This is the State of Florida dash board. It's not John Hopkins, they just use the same software.

Experience

experience.arcgis.com

Then click on the tab, cases by county.. I don't like that they got rid of the "full time length" chart, when you can go back to Feb. Now it's just the last 30 days for the aggregate data.



Now, in Miami, the city is allowing anyone to get tested, symptoms or not, form what I understand, I'm not shocked that the %positive is going down more. But, we've been hovering around 9-10%, with symptomatic people.





Duval. Not loving that small upward tick, but we're still talking 15-20 cases a day.



I"m being goofy.. but they have a new health metrics, that you can do on the aggregate or by county... ED (Emergency Departments... not the other ED..lol) visits down is the best news.

 

[Doug B]

I'll note that I have no idea of the veracity of this report or the validity of the science since the information is not peer reviewed, but this doesn't look good. It could explain the long held question of why mortality is higher and the spread seems faster in New York. Allegedly the second strain took over from the original strain from Wuhan within a few days:

What did this say before it was deleted?

 

[Saint_Ward]

The health info data is a bit out of date though. Looks like that data takes longer to get received. April 26th is the most recent data.

 

[Saint_Ward]

 

[sammymvpknight]

This is the State of Florida dash board. It's not John Hopkins, they just use the same software.

Experience

experience.arcgis.com

Then click on the tab, cases by county.. I don't like that they got rid of the "full time length" chart, when you can go back to Feb. Now it's just the last 30 days for the aggregate data.



Now, in Miami, the city is allowing anyone to get tested, symptoms or not, form what I understand, I'm not shocked that the %positive is going down more. But, we've been hovering around 9-10%, with symptomatic people.





Duval. Not loving that small upward tick, but we're still talking 15-20 cases a day.



I"m being goofy.. but they have a new health metrics, that you can do on the aggregate or by county... ED (Emergency Departments... not the other ED..lol) visits down is the best news.

thanks. That makes sense. Should have just asked before I wasted 30 minutes trying to find it

 

[Saint by the Bay]

Not sure I can name one news show or news paper you can tune into for accurate / fact based news. I occasionally catch 30-45 seconds (seconds!) of Fox, CNN, etc before getting nauseated.

I flip between all of them during the day and have for years. Honestly, I don't find the actual news shows to be bad. A little sensationalist, but pretty much fact-based.

I turn them off at 3 PM because once the pundits start it gets bad. Cuomo is pretty good if you can get past his enormous ego. He's a lot like early Bill O before he went off the deep end during the Obama years.

 

[Saint_Ward]

For those more interested in Louisiana. By my basic rounded math, looks like y'all might be down to 7.6k active cases...

http://ldh.la.gov/Coronavirus/



Interesting how hypertension is such a higher comorbidity than things like Pulmonary or Asthma.



By the way, Let me add this. A lot of people have been stressed out about this. Many folks can't handle being home, or away from friends and family. There's no shame in that. If you need help, or someone to talk to, call this Hotline.

 

[Saint_Ward]

thanks. That makes sense. Should have just asked before I wasted 30 minutes trying to find it

I just google whatever State's department of Health (or similar) and look for a Coronavirus tab and see what info they have.

 

[St. Widge]

What did this say before it was deleted?

That's weird. All it did was link an LA Times article saying that there are two different strains in the U.S. One that came here from Wuhan and one that came from Europe and quickly overtook the Wuhan variant in New York. It also suggested that there is some research suggesting that the virus is mutating at the spike that the vaccines in development are targeting. I'll see if I can find a direct link to the LA Times.

Edit: Here is the story it linked to - https://www.latimes.com/california/...rus-has-emerged-more-contagious-than-original

And here is another story on the same article that is written and published by Sky News:

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...avirus-strain-sweeping-europe-and-us-11983554

 

[BobE]

For all the cruise lovers, Norwegian tied up 3 of them in Norfolk yesterday and they will be here till July 31st.