COVID-19 Outbreak (Update: More than 2.9M cases and 132,313 deaths in US) (5 Viewers)

[Loose Cannon]

Looking at the state and world maps, there are some things that just do not make sense (yet). The huge death toll in NYC compared to the rest of the country, or even the world, for example. If its about population density and close quarters, public transit, etc., then places like India with even greater density AND closer proximity to China should have tens of thousands of deaths. They report 21,000+ cases - that's fewer cases than Italy or NYC have *deaths*.

Maybe its lack of testing or fudging the numbers, I dunno.

There was an article yesterday (I think) where Japan found out that there was a handful of people who got sick via air conditioning circulating in a restaurant where a Covid+ person was also eating. They weren't close enough to the Covid+ person to pick it up normally, so they speculate it traveled via the HVAC system.

If that's true (and theoretically it makes plenty of sense), then areas with high population density and a lot of people living in condos and apartments would be hardest hit (Italy, NYC, China, etc.).

It also would explain why Texas and Florida are largely staying quiet and without crisis, despite huge populations and the fact that it's very apparent to me that we are not really following social distancing guidelines that well. At least not as well as some other places with worse situations have been.

 

[superchuck500]

There was an article yesterday (I think) where Japan found out that there was a handful of people who got sick via air conditioning circulating in a restaurant where a Covid+ person was also eating. They weren't close enough to the Covid+ person to pick it up normally, so they speculate it traveled via the HVAC system.

If that's true (and theoretically it makes plenty of sense), then areas with high population density and a lot of people living in condos and apartments would be hardest hit (Italy, NYC, China, etc.).

It also would explain why Texas and Florida are largely staying quiet and without crisis, despite huge populations and the fact that it's very apparent to me that we are not really following social distancing guidelines that well. At least not as well as some other places have been.

Right but Mr. Sparkle (who is disrespectful to dirt) is saying that it's surprising that some of the highest population density locations (e.g. India and I would add Tokyo, Mexico City, Lagos Nigeria, Jakarta) aren't reporting the same scale of outbreak as New York.

I agree, it's puzzling and it's likely that they are experiencing outbreaks. But at some point, you would think we would hear about it.

 

[WhoDatPhan78]

Right but Mr. Sparkle (who is disrespectful to dirt) is saying that it's surprising that some of the highest population density locations (e.g. India and I would Tokyo, Mexico City, Lagos Nigeria, Jakarta) aren't reporting the same scale of outbreak as New York.

I agree, it's puzzling and it's likely that they are experiencing outbreaks. But at some point, you would think we would hear about it.

Would be interesting to compare normal total deaths per day to current total deaths per day in those countries rather than look specifically at the Covid stastics.

 

[Mr. Sparkle]

Right but Mr. Sparkle (who is disrespectful to dirt) is saying that it's surprising that some of the highest population density locations (e.g. India and I would Tokyo, Mexico City, Lagos Nigeria, Jakarta) aren't reporting the same scale of outbreak as New York.

I agree, it's puzzling and it's likely that they are experiencing outbreaks. But at some point, you would think we would hear about it.

Right. Delhi or Bombay (or Karachi or Bangkok or Kuala Lumpur) have lots of apartment dwellers but relatively few cases and far fewer deaths.

 

[Loose Cannon]

Right but Mr. Sparkle (who is disrespectful to dirt) is saying that it's surprising that some of the highest population density locations (e.g. India and I would add Tokyo, Mexico City, Lagos Nigeria, Jakarta) aren't reporting the same scale of outbreak as New York.

I agree, it's puzzling and it's likely that they are experiencing outbreaks. But at some point, you would think we would hear about it.

Oh, my bad. I'm on a conference call while I'm reading, so sorta half-paying attention and missed the point.

 

[SharonT]

So, if there is a less-lethal strain hitting certain parts of the world (or US) and that strain winds up giving immunity to the other strains, would it make sense to promote exposure?

The strain could be the variable, and makes all the crowing about 'good response' and obsession with 'they're lying' all the more ridiculous.

 

[Loose Cannon]

So, if there is a less-lethal strain hitting certain parts of the world (or US) and that strain winds up giving immunity to the other strains, would it make sense to promote exposure?

The strain could be the variable, and makes all the crowing about 'good response' and obsession with 'they're lying' all the more ridiculous.

If there was a lesser strain that had inherent risk somewhere in the ballpark of the flu and gave you antibodies to all strains...

 

[SharonT]

And I'm catching up with my reading today. Last I remember the three random genomes from New Orleans they were able to sequence all came from Washington State. New York got mostly the European version. It was a surprise because we assumed we had the European/Italian version here.

 

[COsaintsfan]

Are Tennessee and West Virginia just sitting this one out or what?
No testing in these places?

 

[SharonT]

And I hate the thought that creeps into my brain that the delay in releasing this information is having lawyers going over patent information. I'm sorry.

 

[Saint_Ward]

California reports 'deadliest day' yet, global lockdowns ease

Covid-19 has infected more than 2.7 million people around the world as of Thursday, killing at least 190,303 people.

www.cnbc.com

I'm moving to Montana! haha.

 

[Saint_Ward]

A Coronavirus Death in Early February Was ‘Probably the Tip of an Iceberg’ (Published 2020)

The startling discovery that the virus was responsible for a Feb. 6 death in California raises questions about where else it might have been spreading undetected.

www.nytimes.com

I forget if this was already posted.

There have been signs that the virus established itself long before community transmission was recognized.
Researchers believe that cases in New York probably began circulating in mid-February. Trevor Bedford, a scientist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center who studies the spread and evolution of viruses, has estimated that an outbreak in the Seattle area likely has roots back to about Feb. 1, or perhaps could be linked to the first reported case in the United States — a man who flew from China to the Seattle area on Jan. 15 and later tested positive.
But, until now, the first known deaths from the coronavirus were recorded in the Seattle area on Feb. 26.
Whether and how the early cases might be related to later cases remains unclear. C.D.C. scientists are attempting to discern the genetic sequences of the virus from the three cases, which can be challenging when tissues are obtained after death.
So far, only relatively short pieces of genetic material have been obtained, said Kristen Nordlund, a spokeswoman for the agency. That was enough to confirm the diagnosis, but not large enough to detect the specific virus’s subtype, which could help identify potential links to other cases.

Dr. Charles Chiu, who has been examining the genetic signatures of the viruses circulating in the Bay Area, had previous suspicions about the Santa Clara cases. While many of the viruses landing in the United States have several mutations compared with the original strain in Wuhan, one of the cases examined at the end of February in Santa Clara had only one mutation.
That indicated that the cases there had a strong link to the original Wuhan strain.
“It suggested that it was an early introduction,” Dr. Chiu said. Even still, he was surprised that a virus-related death occurred as early as it did in February. He is interested in seeing the genomic sequence of the new cases, although he suspects they are likely to be connected to the larger cluster in Santa Clara linked by the same signature mutation.

The virus has an incubation period of up to 14 days, and people can be infectious before symptoms begin. Because Ms. Dowd had been ill for several days before dying on Feb. 6, it is possible that she could have transmitted the infection to others as early as January.
“This offers evidence of what many of us in the field had been saying,” said Dr. Adalja, the infectious disease specialist. “That restricting testing was going to miss cases that could have a chain of transmission that ended up with somebody dying.”

 

[EGLSShin]

Well, not to beat the drum of redundancy but you also have to look at overall health of your population. The USA isnt exactly a bastion of health when compared to places in Asia. This virus has a field day with people who have Diabetes, high blood pressure and are Obese. The more serious cases of the virus saps your ability to breathe to the point oxygen cant get to the rest of your organs and thats when you have those other conditions in place, its like a nuke going off in your body.

 

[superchuck500]

So, if there is a less-lethal strain hitting certain parts of the world (or US) and that strain winds up giving immunity to the other strains, would it make sense to promote exposure?

The strain could be the variable, and makes all the crowing about 'good response' and obsession with 'they're lying' all the more ridiculous.

Note that the strain study that is being referenced here is based on data and samples that have aged a bit - I think the take-away from it is that this virus mutates very commonly (as RNA viruses do, but apparently some conoraviruses don't mutate as often) and that the mutations do have consequences on the pathology. But there are likely scores of additional identifiable strains since that study. I still think that in general, it looks like the mutations move toward less pathology (more benign).

While prevalence of strains with higher viral load based on region was part of the conclusions from the study, I don't know if that means we can presume that that regional prevalence remains over extended periods of time, as the mutation cycle continues. It certainly bears more study.

Higher viral load doesn't necessarily mean more severe infection - I don't think it does at least. But it does mean greater ease of transmission. I think what I'm getting at is that it's probably not as simple as concluding that prevalence of possibly more intense strains elsewhere means that we should try to encourage spread of a (possibly) more benign strain locally. We still have a high degree of seriousness (relative to other seasonal viruses) and we don't yet know how immunity works with respect to the spectrum of strains.

 

[SharonT]

We still have a high degree of seriousness (relative to other seasonal viruses) and we don't yet know how immunity works with respect to the spectrum of strains.

Chicken Pox. I'm of the generation whose mothers invited kids over so their kids would hopefully be exposed and over with it while they were young. Or out of school.
Risk/rewards in the days before a vaccine.