COVID-19 Outbreak (Update: More than 2.9M cases and 132,313 deaths in US) (3 Viewers)

[St. Geezy]

Actually, the 100-200k is still reasonable within the bell curve.

We have seemingly reached the peak death rate across this country. Some were earlier, some are later. Not sure if we'll have a 1 day peak, but if so, that was yesterday or Monday.

So, we're approximately half way through the bell curve. We still have to go down. So, we're just shy of 48k deaths in the US. So, multiply that by 2, which is 96k dead. That's what we'll probably end up with as new cases slow down, and deaths slow down. That's assuming the down side of the curve is the same as the upside, which it won't be. it will be prolonged and skewed to the right, so we may easily end up with over 100k dead.

That's how you read those bell curve charts. It's not the max.

It's not like this curve just ends with a cliff.

This was so well stated, and has a been a fear I have had for awhile now...

I think the phrasing "flattening the curve" has been used far too much throughout this entire saga by leaders and by everyday citizens, and it is to the point now where many, including the politicians/decision-makers, feel as though that was the goal, and once achieved, everything will be just fine to re-open. Some of that is due to pure ignorance, displayed by folks such as the Las Vegas Mayor, and some of that is due to China's sudden flattening and "end of pandemic" narrative that many people gobbled up as 100% fact.

Truth is, it is the exact opposite of that. I mean great, we have hit the ceiling based on our current measures, but this truly isn't the end and we should not be treating it as such and being so eager to open immediately, at least not in the manner some leaders are presenting it to the public. As long as there are still active cases out there, this thing can and will begin spreading again quickly if we do not remain cautious for some time after the curve has flattened.

We have already seen that all it takes is 1 case to turn into thousands and ultimately kill thousands within weeks, and this has been my problem with this quarantine measure all along and why it will ultimately prove moot - this thing will always break out if we aren't practicing social distancing until a vaccine comes out, but practicing social distancing to the degree we are until a vaccine comes out is also not realistic, so we are stuck in a no-win battle and are just delaying the inevitable.

To me, I uncharacteristically agree with the far right that we HAVE to open the country up at some point, probably within the next 30 days or so, in some form or fashion; the country simply cannot afford to live like this for the next 12+ months until a vaccine comes out, because if we try to, we will go into a decade-plus long period of depression. That said, we also should not be purporting that we have reached the goal and are home free either. We probably do need to have a thorough evaluation of what is essential, what is non-essential, what jobs can make-due as work from home jobs for the next 12 months, and which ones can't. There still needs to be a strong element of fear preached to society, there needs to continue to be a level of social distancing, and we should not let people get too comfortable and think things are back to normal and a-okay just because "the curve has been flattened."

 

[kat5s]

There was an article yesterday (I think) where Japan found out that there was a handful of people who got sick via air conditioning circulating in a restaurant where a Covid+ person was also eating. They weren't close enough to the Covid+ person to pick it up normally, so they speculate it traveled via the HVAC system.

If that's true (and theoretically it makes plenty of sense), then areas with high population density and a lot of people living in condos and apartments would be hardest hit (Italy, NYC, China, etc.).

It also would explain why Texas and Florida are largely staying quiet and without crisis, despite huge populations and the fact that it's very apparent to me that we are not really following social distancing guidelines that well. At least not as well as some other places with worse situations have been.

More of air flow from AC moving droplets around confined space..

Article:

COVID-19 Outbreak Associated with Air Conditioning in Restaurant, Guangzhou, China, 2020

COVID-19 Outbreak Associated with Air Conditioning in Restaurant, Guangzhou, China, 2020

wwwnc.cdc.gov

Interesting Thread/Comments:

 

[efil4stnias]

More of air flow from AC moving droplets around confined space..

Article:

COVID-19 Outbreak Associated with Air Conditioning in Restaurant, Guangzhou, China, 2020

COVID-19 Outbreak Associated with Air Conditioning in Restaurant, Guangzhou, China, 2020

wwwnc.cdc.gov

Interesting Thread/Comments:

assuming A1 is patient zero, the AC coming from right to left ( in pic ) doesnt help explain C 1 and C2

 

[DaveXA]

Looking at the state and world maps, there are some things that just do not make sense (yet). The huge death toll in NYC compared to the rest of the country, or even the world, for example. If its about population density and close quarters, public transit, etc., then places like India with even greater density AND closer proximity to China should have tens of thousands of deaths. JHU report says just 21,000+ cases for India- that's almost fewer cases than Italy or NYC have *deaths*.

Maybe its lack of testing or fudging the numbers, I dunno.

I theorized that the NYC has a different strain of the virus, more virulent and more deadly than other strains in the rest of the country. More is now being written about this, so this may account for some of the differences.

Also, the earliest confirmed deaths are now from California, not Washington state as previously thought. As many here suspected, there was community spread in California predating the Washington cases. The severe lack of testing and super narrow requirements to get tested meant a whole lot of people being missed early on. Limiting it to only those recently visiting Wuhan was always a stupid idea.

 

[kat5s]

Still a lot to learn...This a preprint and not peer reviewed yet

Thread:

Coronavirus: Scientists in China find 33 mutations of virus in warning to vaccine developers

Researchers say vaccine developers need to consider the impact of these "accumulating mutations... to avoid potential pitfalls".

news.sky.com

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20060160v2.full.pdf

 

[Saint by the Bay]

re: India

We have about 1,000 people working in India. They locked down fairly early (in terms of cases there) and it is SUPER strict. I talked to my guys every morning and evening and I'm telling you, they are not moving at all. It makes them super productive.

I think there's also something to be said for diet and general health. I think India has a lower percentage of the risk factors with the exception of diabetes which is rampant there for some reason.

 

[itztime]

re: India

We have about 1,000 people working in India. They locked down fairly early (in terms of cases there) and it is SUPER strict. I talked to my guys every morning and evening and I'm telling you, they are not moving at all. It makes them super productive.

Same here we contract a handful of jobs to India and over a month ago they (India) sent everyone home with strict orders. Only issue is most of them had to leave the big cities and go back to their rural dwellings and have no internet to be able to carry on their daily duties and the ones who do live in the big city could not prove they were HIPAA compliant from home.

 

[travelingsaintsfan]

I learned several things today with the Walmart Pickup.

First thing is do not schedule your pickup time for first thing in the morning. A lot of the daily deliveries have not been made yet, so these items were deleted from my order. I did afternoon pickups the two other successful times.

Make sure to check the "do not substitute" box. I forgot to do it this time and of the five items they substituted three of them were nothing like what I ordered. One item was McCormick Pork Chops Bag n Season and they substituted chili of it.

There is no way to cancel your order after they either did not have or substituted items on your list. I had to call the store to cancel it. Even two hours past my pickup time Walmart is still texting me saying my order is ready for pickup. We ended up going inside and getting most of the stuff we wanted instead including the out of stock and substituted items.

 

[Saint_Ward]

This was so well stated, and has a been a fear I have had for awhile now...

I think the phrasing "flattening the curve" has been used far too much throughout this entire saga by leaders and by everyday citizens, and it is to the point now where many, including the politicians/decision-makers, feel as though that was the goal, and once achieved, everything will be just fine to re-open. Some of that is due to pure ignorance, displayed by folks such as the Las Vegas Mayor, and some of that is due to China's sudden flattening and "end of pandemic" narrative that many people gobbled up as 100% fact.

Truth is, it is the exact opposite of that. I mean great, we have hit the ceiling based on our current measures, but this truly isn't the end and we should not be treating it as such and being so eager to open immediately, at least not in the manner some leaders are presenting it to the public. As long as there are still active cases out there, this thing can and will begin spreading again quickly if we do not remain cautious for some time after the curve has flattened.

We have already seen that all it takes is 1 case to turn into thousands and ultimately kill thousands within weeks, and this has been my problem with this quarantine measure all along and why it will ultimately prove moot - this thing will always break out if we aren't practicing social distancing until a vaccine comes out, but practicing social distancing to the degree we are until a vaccine comes out is also not realistic, so we are stuck in a no-win battle and are just delaying the inevitable.

To me, I uncharacteristically agree with the far right that we HAVE to open the country up at some point, probably within the next 30 days or so, in some form or fashion; the country simply cannot afford to live like this for the next 12+ months until a vaccine comes out, because if we try to, we will go into a decade-plus long period of depression. That said, we also should not be purporting that we have reached the goal and are home free either. We probably do need to have a thorough evaluation of what is essential, what is non-essential, what jobs can make-due as work from home jobs for the next 12 months, and which ones can't. There still needs to be a strong element of fear preached to society, there needs to continue to be a level of social distancing, and we should not let people get too comfortable and think things are back to normal and a-okay just because "the curve has been flattened."

The new normal may not be the best phrase, but it encapsulates the idea. We need to re enter society in a controlled fashion.

I've been asking the question for weeks. How do we open up mass transit, air travel, hotels, theme parks, concerts, sports?

They won't all happen at the same time, but there needs to be a careful plan.

I told my hair dresser friend that she needs an N95 mask for work. Only because her patrons won't be able to wear masks while being fixed up. She needs to wash her hands, wipe down her station, and her scissors/clippers between customers. They already do this with combs and other things.

Told her if anyone looks or sounds sick, you cancel their appointment.

We need folks to remain steadfast on this. Many will. Many won't or can't.

Some will be much harder... how do you open a bar to the public? Night clubs? Screening? Gonna be a lonely year for a lot of singles...lol

 

[itztime]

I learned several things today with the Walmart Pickup.

First thing is do not schedule your pickup time for first thing in the morning. A lot of the daily deliveries have not been made yet, so these items were deleted from my order. I did afternoon pickups the two other successful times.

Make sure to check the "do not substitute" box. I forgot to do it this time and of the five items they substituted three of them were nothing like what I ordered. One item was McCormick Pork Chops Bag n Season and they substituted chili of it.

There is no way to cancel your order after they either did not have or substituted items on your list. I had to call the store to cancel it. Even two hours past my pickup time Walmart is still texting me saying my order is ready for pickup. We ended up going inside and getting most of the stuff we wanted instead including the out of stock and substituted items.

Similar experience, I have tried early morning and late evening, while trying different Walmart's, whichever route you choose will be a bust. With substitutions at one WalMart the girl removed the items from my invoice and let me keep them, at another WalMart the substitution from the email was wrong, I told the guy I don't want that crap, he told me he would have to go inside to remove from the invoice, I told him no worries, I don't want you to go through all of that.

The shameful thing is the items that are "not in stock" or "no substitution available", if you look carefully at other shopper's buggies they have those items you are looking for. So like you, I have to end up going inside. The same tale can be told with Kroger also, I have tried them also. Moral of story if you need meat, some dairy items, frozen (depending on the criteria) or paper products you will more than likely need to go inside, other than that pick up is nice.

 

[Saint_Ward]

assuming A1 is patient zero, the AC coming from right to left ( in pic ) doesnt help explain C 1 and C2

A/C return (intake) air flow. So, it's sucking it back toward them, then blowing it on them.

Likely less concentrated than the table to the left.

 

[superchuck500]

 

[sonicboom]

Umm. Things are really starting to get interesting. I don't think things are ever gonna be the same again. We are playing a new ball game now.

• "Every American age 16 and older making less than $130,000 annually would receive at least $2,000 per month.

Proposal #2: Cancel Rent & Mortgage Payments Through The Coronavirus Emergency"

Proposed: $2,000 Monthly Stimulus Checks And Canceled Rent And Mortgage Payments For 1 Year

$2,000 Monthly Stimulus Check for up to 12 Months and Canceled Rent & Mortgage Payments for 1 Year

www.forbes.com

 

[guidomerkinsrules]

The new normal may not be the best phrase, but it encapsulates the idea. We need to re enter society in a controlled fashion.

I've been asking the question for weeks. How do we open up mass transit, air travel, hotels, theme parks, concerts, sports?

They won't all happen at the same time, but there needs to be a careful plan.

I told my hair dresser friend that she needs an N95 mask for work. Only because her patrons won't be able to wear masks while being fixed up. She needs to wash her hands, wipe down her station, and her scissors/clippers between customers. They already do this with combs and other things.

Told her if anyone looks or sounds sick, you cancel their appointment.

We need folks to remain steadfast on this. Many will. Many won't or can't.

Some will be much harder... how do you open a bar to the public? Night clubs? Screening? Gonna be a lonely year for a lot of singles...lol

There are two main factors at play that I see
-Many of us a programmed for social nicities- it makes social distancing in public spaces awkward
-Then there is our ‘customer is king’ dynamic- that is going to have to die a quick death. Customers MUST adhere to rules or get kicked out immediately — and ALL businesses need to adhere. We can’t have some restaurants letting in unsafe numbers just to boost sales- the system would collapse pretty quickly

 

[DaveXA]

Umm. Things are really starting to get interesting. I don't think things are ever gonna be the same again. We are playing a new ball game now.

• "Every American age 16 and older making less than $130,000 annually would receive at least $2,000 per month.

Proposal #2: Cancel Rent & Mortgage Payments Through The Coronavirus Emergency"

Proposed: $2,000 Monthly Stimulus Checks And Canceled Rent And Mortgage Payments For 1 Year

$2,000 Monthly Stimulus Check for up to 12 Months and Canceled Rent & Mortgage Payments for 1 Year

www.forbes.com

Well my rent is around $2000/month, so I'm down with either scenario.

I have 3 kids over 16, so each of them getting 2k/month would be great for them.

That said, it will never happen. The Senate isn't gonna vote for it. McConnell is already on record as saying that states will have to declare bankruptcy rather than get more federal funds and that they're done spending more money at least until May 4th when the Senate convenes for their next session.