James Spader
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When that is rally all there is, what can one do. Some of us have posted positive items when we find them. Do you have positive vibes to throw our way?
COVID-19 Outbreak (Update: More than 2.9M cases and 132,313 deaths in US) (221 Viewers)
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James Spader
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Where is the Britannia who dat (forgot name)? Looking for local updates from across the pond.
bclemms
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Yeah, I'm not buying all the high conspiracy stuff. Some of it turns out to be true but a very small percent of it. There were reports on Twitter a couple weeks ago surrounding an outbreak starting in Qom, Iran that turned out to be true but it went widely ignored at the time because it seemed like another conspiracy post. Those conspiracy posts do so much harm.
bclemms
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Florida has said repeatedly that it will not release the details of SUSPECTED cases but would be completely transparent with confirmed cases. I've been doing the same thing in this thread, suspected cases come back as negative cases at a high rate so it's not really a big deal.
James Spader
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Ok, found this pic purported to be in England and is by Watford general hospital which is North West of London. Can I get a confirmation?
James Spader
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Unfortunately, nature of the beast when information flows freely. I prefer this way over China way for sure
IntenseSaint
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My positive vibes are not believing 90% of the things posted on reddit and twitter.
Also outside of lying governments like China/Iran/NK, the numbers around the world really aren't as bad as it's being presented. The articles that were stating that 60% of the globe could get covid19 were laughable at best.
bclemms
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South Korea and Japan have a great healthcare system, one of the most transparent governments in the world and they are having some really big problems right now. I'm not going to speculate about the percentage, 60% seems really high if we're talking about population numbers but to think 60% of countries having epidemics it's not that far fetched.
IntenseSaint
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The 60% figure thrown around was based on population, that is why it was laughable.
And South Korea's population is 51 million people and Japan's is 126 Million people. Get back to me when at least one half of 1% of their populations have covid19.
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I didn't get that far. I stopped at US Deep State.
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Those numbers were based on epidemiological modeling. Like any modeling, they're really only hypothetical - to confirm in reality, the real world situation has to unfold exactly like the model predicts. Unlike weather modeling that gets confirmed everyday, modeling a novel virus outbreak strikes me as pretty much useless.
Any reddit or twitter post that isn't verified from a known source appropriate to make such comments should be immediately disregarded IMO. But that poor info being out there doesn't mean that the good info is any less meaningful. The problem with the numbers for the rest of the world isn't about the raw magnitude. As we saw with Hubei, a substantially contagious viral outbreak (as this appears to be) spreads very quickly when not contained.
You can say, well South Korea only has 200 cases in a nation of 50 million. That's true, but it was 31 cases three days ago. Any time a new case pops up in a new location or a location with a low case count, the issue isn't the raw number, it's the question of containment. Apart from the genuine human interest and scientific interest, I think what we're all most concerned about is (1) if this thing is going to get to our communities and what that might mean for us and our families, and (2) what will the broader impact be to the economy and global supply chains that provide us with the things we need.
No, we're still not at an immediate threat on those concerns. But the risk is substantially greater today than it was a month ago. Hopefully by this time next month, that risk will have subsided. Based on the way it's trending right now, that's less likely than an outcome of even greater risk.
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Stories like this are always interesting to me - where the ingenuitive among us step into gaps where needed.
Arathrael
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There's a few of us UK who dats. But there hasn't been much to update about the last few days. I think we're still at 9 positive cases in the UK. We're flying back around 70 passengers from the Diamond Princess tomorrow (delayed from today), who'll be going into quarantine for two weeks.
I can confirm that hospitals here have set up coronavirus 'priority assessment pods': https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51392607
bclemms
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Right but that 60% also assumes no vaccine will be created, seasonal changes wont impact anything, no major travel restrictions or quarantines. In that scenario it is very plausible but worst case scenario. That is if the virus ran its course, it would have to infect 60% of the population before enough people have immunity to stop the spread.
I'm a believer that we are probably catching about 20% of cases globally right now so the real numbers are likely about 500% higher.
If Japan hits 1% I wont have to wake you up, you will feel the shockwaves.
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New batch of cases now has Japan at 107. These are not being reported as Diamond Princess cases.
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