COVID-19 Outbreak (Update: More than 2.9M cases and 132,313 deaths in US) (6 Viewers)

[Sun Wukong]

I actually think there are more serious cases than the authorities are letting on. I don't think everyone with a mild case is trying to go. It's been stated time and time again by authorities that anyone with mild symptoms should stay home and not go in for testing. And fwiw, I believe the numbers here are far higher than being reported, here in the US and elsewhere. That's just my opinion based on discussions I've had with a few people in the industry.

I agree that the number overall are worthless, but I see no reason to start getting conspiratorial about there actually being more serious cases than we're being told. Data, much of it independent, has been pretty consistent with the severity percentages and, like he said in the link in the post, local numbers bear that out.

 

[DaveXA]

I agree that the number overall are worthless, but I see no reason to start getting conspiratorial about there actually being more serious cases than we're being told. Data, much of it independent, has been pretty consistent with the severity percentages and, like he said in the link in the post, local numbers bear that out.

No conspiracy. The numbers are actually bunk. Not sure why they're being underreported, but they are. And fwiw, it's happening in most countries.

To be clear, I think most people with mild symptoms are staying home like they're being told. At press conferences, I've often heard them say to please call before going in. I'm sure during those calls, there is a person who screens those calls and tells only the sickest to come in. They know if everyone with a mild case comes in, they'll quickly get overrun.

 

[BobE]

 

[Saint_Ward]

So we’re free here to call out Trump for the dangerous, inept clown he is, right?

I just want to make sure I’m not crossing any lines or ’making it political’.. Anyone who still thinks this guy is a ‘very stable genius’, please speak up now, I’d love to hear from you.

The whole, "so we're allowed to do ______ now" type questions are always a bad idea.

 

[RazorOye]

The whole, "so we're allowed to do ______ now" type questions are always a bad idea.

oh, but we're allowed to call out people who ' call out people who ask if we're allowed to call out people now' now?

 

[Sun Wukong]

No conspiracy. The numbers are actually bunk. Not sure why they're being underreported, but they are. And fwiw, it's happening in most countries.

Sources?

Edit: I'm not talking overall numbers being under reported, I'm talking about this supposed there being way more serious cases than the percentages show.

 

[DaveXA]

Sources?

Two individuals in the industry. Can't name them because they want to keep their jobs.

 

[Sun Wukong]

Two individuals in the industry. Can't name them because they want to keep their jobs.

That's not data, that's anecdotes.

 

[Saint_Ward]

So what is the economy going to look like when we don't have people traveling, no hotels booked, no cruises, restaurants empty, people working from home, hundreds of thousands dead, no healthcare system, people not able to work either due to being sick, taking care of someone sick or attending funderals. How are we going to do with oil prices at $20? Now, stretch this over a 18 month period.

If we shut it down 2 months ago we could quite literally already be done with it and the only consequence would be no international travel for a year but two months ago that seemed really extreme.

If we prioritized testing early then we could be living with the virus like South Korea.

We chose to go let the virus run wild for 6 weeks, then try to play catch up and then right as we were about to get caught up we quit and let the virus win. I've never been so disappointed. The economic fall out from this decision is simply not imaginable.

The good news is that most of the states won't follow suit.

 

[DaveXA]

That's not data, that's anecdotes.

I'll just say they are involved in actually sending the data to CDC. Now it's anecdotal in the sense that they're aware of the real numbers in their area are twice what the CDC is reporting. Maybe it's only happening with them, but I suspect they're hardly the only ones. I've never really trusted the numbers for the most part. I think they're intentionally keeping the numbers low so as to avoid starting a panic. Which is understandable.

And fwiw, I'm sure some will be skeptical, and that's fine. I was until I spoke with them. I still have questions, but it's hard to verify the data being made public.

 

[superchuck500]

That's not data, that's anecdotes.

This is true.

But also it's a high standard to say that those who believe the observed conditions call into question the official data, must be able to support it with their own data. In that context, anecdotal evidence can be useful, if it is from a credible source. If the same anecdote appears in multiple locations, it can be a basis to draw conclusions. Yes, they're caveated conclusions of course, they're not necessarily reliable - but not dismissible out of hand.

But you're right that it's not data and so it's only so useful. It's all very challenging for sure.

 

[IntenseSaint]

For what it's worth. Social distancing but allowing people to work in non-essential jobs is not 'letting the virus run wild'.

 

[FWtex]

i think the reason why so many people are running to the hospital is fear, i dont think the governments and media around the world are doing enough coverage of the recovery numbers as well as the 80% that have only mild cases. we only see and hear the negative and its instilling fear in a lot of people. and by no means am i saying this is not a big deal but it would put a lot of people at ease if they reinforced that most have little symptoms and can fight it at home and that most of the people that need hospitalization are recovering maybe things wouldn't get so clogged up.

So much of the news media depends on inciting emotions and fear is the easiest way for them to get viewers, reader, and clicks. The other night a local evening studio newscaster started his story with "... and it that does not scare you ..." There whole broadcast seemed to be designed around instilling fear instead of just giving valuable information and calming fear and panic,

Its as though there is a top 10 list of news stories in all of history and they are always trying to make every story top one of the top 10 stories so at some time in the future when they are the old grey reporters they can say there were there when .... Every story has to be sensationalized even more than it already is.

 

[Sun Wukong]

I'll just say they are involved in actually sending the data to CDC. Now it's anecdotal in the sense that they're aware of the real numbers in their area are twice what the CDC is reporting. Maybe it's only happening with them, but I suspect they're hardly the only ones. I've never really trusted the numbers for the most part. I think they're intentionally keeping the numbers low so as to avoid starting a panic. Which is understandable.

I agree that the numbers overall shouldn't be trusted. Everything is significantly higher than is being reported. Where I start to question things is on the specific percentages and severities. We've got lots of independent data collected from numerous sites globally that reinforce the idea of certain percentages as they relate to severe cases. If we're getting into the idea that there's a coverup to keep those lower than they actually are, we're getting a little too close to global conspiracy territory for my tastes and I'm going to need to see numbers and data sets to support those claims.

 

[DaveXA]

I agree that the numbers overall shouldn't be trusted. Everything is significantly higher than is being reported. Where I start to question things is on the specific percentages and severities. We've got lots of independent data collected from numerous sites globally that reinforce the idea of certain percentages as they relate to severe cases. If we're getting into the idea that there's a coverup to keep those lower than they actually are, we're getting a little too close to global conspiracy territory for my tastes and I'm going to need to see numbers and data sets to support those claims.

That makes sense. FWIW, the idea mild cases staying home in large numbers, that's pure speculation on my part. It just seems to me the numbers of mild cases going to hospitals should be fairly low based on authorities in pressers telling people repeatedly to stay home and not get tested if they have mild symptoms, and to call ahead if they think it's serious.

That's speculation coming from me personally.