Derek Carr was a top 10 QB in 2023 (1 Viewer)

[TenTwo]

Respectfully, what has Carr done to not be labeled a “choke artist”?

His play and stats were not good at all for about 70% of the season.

He played well in the last 5 games, but to be fair, the Panthers, Giants, and Falcons were 3 of those. And in the Rams game, it was 30-7 in the 4th before the offense really started to do anything.

He doesn’t choke. Not like most QBs today. Think about the big throws late in games, like Tennessee and Indianapolis. His several come from behind efforts. You never saw him tighten up and throw bad balls when we needed him the most. That’s been who he’s always been.

I can list a few players who I think when the game is on the line, you’re going to see them at their best. Mahomes. Watson, Stroud, Purdy, Burrow. These guys just have heart. Carr shares this attribute. Always has. You’ve just never seen it because his teams

 

[State Of Affairs]

You are what your record says you are. It’s not low hanging fruit. It’s facts. At the end of the season, you (along with your team and coaches) are judged by what you finished as. Our players and coaches did not do enough to win consistently. The goal is to win. Period

… that’s what I mean… low hanging fruit argument. Who’s going to disagree that “the team didn’t win enough”?

Now talk about how the team is going to win more and it’s a more interesting conversation…

 

[SweetT]

My subjective ranking based in part on objective rankings would put Carr in the group under Elite and just under the group of Very Good. People can bicker as to how many QB's are Elite and how many are Very Good. With the current state of the NFL, I think the total of both categories is between 8-12 QB'S max. That puts Carr in the group below 9-13. My own ranking would put Carr between 10-12 or so. Some people can't stand him, but PC had some terrible play calling games early on. Was that because of Carr or because of Pete?

I'm really anxious to see how 2024 plays out. If Carr comes out and plays similar to the latter part of the 2023 season early on, then I'll feel pretty good about our chances.

The whole "hospital balls" thing is an absolute joke. Carr wasn't out there laying out receivers. He was getting crushed by terrible line protection the first half of the season. I would say that Carr took FAR MORE serious hits than Michael Thomas did throughout the season and he kept playing..... If you go by Slant Boy you should be able to take a hit.

This is how I see it. I will dummy this down in a sense. Let’s stay within the division. Baker Mayfield got his team into the playoffs, along with winning the division. So wherever yall have Baker ranked, DC4 should be ranked behind him. Yall can make excuses about crap playcalling by Ole Sneaky Pete, WRs missing assignments, lack of trust with WRs, Oline play, etc…….bc I have stated all of those for our failures this year. However, when it comes to rankings at the end of the season, excuses are just excuses. Every team had problems to a degree. “Had this happened better”, “if we just did this then”, “yada yada”……the point remains that we didn’t do well enough and no one has DC4 in their top 10 rankings bc this past year, he didn’t play his way into the top 10. I HOPE he does bc I am one of his biggest supporters, but yall need to stop and realize that he did not play his way into the top 10 QBs this year conversation and that is perfectly fine bc he CAN do it next year. My God, some of yall act like the world will end by living in the real world.
I challenge anyone to post their top 10 QB rankings for this past year (and be honest) and we can all see exactly where yall have him ranked. And don’t base it on a 6 game sample size. Base it on the entire season. Here’s mine:

Mahomes
Allen
Lamar
Goff
Stafford
Tua
Love
Dak
Purdy
Hurts
Stroud
Baker
All played better this season and all of them got exposed due to their own shortcomings (excluding the last remaining 2 QBs in the Super Bowl).
That’s 12 just right there. This list obviously are missing names due to injury. So I don’t even factor them into this season.

 

[SweetT]

… that’s what I mean… low hanging fruit argument. Who’s going to disagree that “the team didn’t win enough”?

Now talk about how the team is going to win more and it’s a more interesting conversation…

If our team wins more, then we can have the discussion whether or not he is a top 10 QB. It’s simple

 

[jahsoul357]

He is top 10. The info you need is right there in the OP. He already proved it. A full season. No one plays perfect all season long. So compare the total season to the other top QBs and the statistics tell the story.

Respectfully, we are only having this conversation because of the last 4 games of the season, as @los226 pointed out.





It's easy to create this narrative when using raw stats but for metrics that takes things on a game by game basis, it doesn't work like that. Most metrics have him 14 and lower. I believe that the last 2 games gave us something to build on but to say that he played his way into a top 10 spot ignores over 75% of the entire season. Up until Week 15, the only thing that he could rest his hat on was completion percentage, which means nothing in the grand scheme of offensive production.

 

[saintsfan26]

I personally gained respect for Carr as a person as the year went on. He took some big hits. Some of them were his own fault, holding the ball too long, but he kept getting back up. Carr is now a Saint who has earned his black and gold stripes IMO. He gave us a winning season in his first year, that’s a start. I’m willing to give him a chance and support him.

 

[Broad St. Saint]

I agree with those who say we are having this convo because of the last 4 games.

However, I would not discount those last four games. First, they were all late-season games against teams that were still alive for the playoffs - two of which actually did make the playoffs. Second, as has been pointed out, he was in a new system, so you might expect him to be worse at the start - if he now understands the system, the last four games are potentially a truer test of where is at. Finally, the Saints fired OC Pete Carmichael; we'll probably never know for sure, but is it possible that Pete's role was minimized late in the season, especially if the Saints knew, and Pete could surmise, that he was a goner at season's end? IF that's true - admittedly a hypothesis - that bodes really well for Carr.

 

[TenTwo]

Respectfully, we are only having this conversation because of the last 4 games of the season, as @los226 pointed out.





It's easy to create this narrative when using raw stats but for metrics that takes things on a game by game basis, it doesn't work like that. Most metrics have him 14 and lower. I believe that the last 2 games gave us something to build on but to say that he played his way into a top 10 spot ignores over 75% of the entire season. Up until Week 15, the only thing that he could rest his hat on was completion percentage, which means nothing in the grand scheme of offensive production.

“Most metrics”

Show them to us. Otherwise it’s just sounds like you made something up.

And when you cherry pick which games to use, you just water down your stance. And when you talk about the last 4 games, as if that’s some subset of data we should view as an anomaly…why? Were those not the most important games? I would argue that if we’re cherry picking to make a point, those games hold more value in both terms of ability to operate under pressure and forecasting future results.

GG

 

[TenTwo]

Quarterbacks should be judged by wins and losses.

Strongly disagree. Coaches should be measured by wins and losses. What influence does the QB have on the defense? The QB should be judged on his ability to operate an offense. How well he plays the position. Accuracy, arm strength, progressions, footwork, anticipation, reading defenses.

Wins and losses is just the lazy way fans like to generalize things. Blame it all on the QB. But the reality of how the position is valued is based on what I’m talking about. You want to judge a QB on his ability to win the game down a score with 2 minutes to play? Yeah, that’s valid. But just a blanket Ws vs Ls that just tells me he was on a good team. With good players around him and a good coaching staff who put the QB in a position to succeed.

It’s this thought process I use to argue that Drew Brees was the greatest QB of all time.

 

[jahsoul357]

“Most metrics”

Show them to us. Otherwise it’s just sounds like you made something up.

And when you cherry pick which games to use, you just water down your stance. And when you talk about the last 4 games, as if that’s some subset of data we should view as an anomaly…why? Were those not the most important games? I would argue that if we’re cherry picking to make a point, those games hold more value in both terms of ability to operate under pressure and forecasting future results.

GG

@Rouxble already told you that he was 17th in DVOA

He was 17th in EPA/Play
He was 17th in Adj. EPA/Play
He was 17th in ESPN QBR (which is basically EPA adjusted for situations)
I want to say he was 14th in DYAR (but I can't remember where I saw that).

And how am I cherry picking? I just gave you where where he stood the first 13 games of the season and then showed you the last 4, which confirms my stance. We are only having this conversation because the last 4 games of the season practically doubled his TDs, added 1k yards, shot up his completion percentage, and his passer rating. The end.

I'm not saying that this is not something that we can't build on but 4 games shouldn't erase 13, although history shows that it do (for some).

 

[Deuuuuce]

Strongly disagree. Coaches should be measured by wins and losses. What influence does the QB have on the defense? The QB should be judged on his ability to operate an offense. How well he plays the position. Accuracy, arm strength, progressions, footwork, anticipation, reading defenses.

Wins and losses is just the lazy way fans like to generalize things. Blame it all on the QB. But the reality of how the position is valued is based on what I’m talking about. You want to judge a QB on his ability to win the game down a score with 2 minutes to play? Yeah, that’s valid. But just a blanket Ws vs Ls that just tells me he was on a good team. With good players around him and a good coaching staff who put the QB in a position to succeed.

It’s this thought process I use to argue that Drew Brees was the greatest QB of all time.

Brees is also 4th in wins. Not bad. The top 4 winningest QBs also are the top 4 in TD passes. I don’t think QBs should be judged solely on win/loss, but it matters a hell of a lot more than yards , tds or whatever other stat you want to throw out there.

 

[jahsoul357]

Brees is also 4th in wins. Not bad. The top 4 winningest QBs also are the top 4 in TD passes. I don’t think QBs should be judged solely on win/loss, but it matters a hell of a lot more than yards , tds or whatever other stat you want to throw out there.

So does that means that little should be said about our defense during the 7-9 seasons?

 

[Deuuuuce]

So does that means that little should be said about our defense during the 7-9 seasons?

It’s the same argument you’re trying to make about Carr only playing the last 5 games well…you’re just using other statistics. 4-1 in last 5 games, 5-7 the rest of the season. Typically if a QB is playing well, the rest takes care of itself. I’m not saying it’s always the case, but over long stretches of time that’s the best indicator for good QB play.

 

[jahsoul357]

It’s the same argument you’re trying to make about Carr only playing the last 5 games well…you’re just using other statistics. 4-1 in last 5 games, 5-7 the rest of the season. Typically if a QB is playing well, the rest takes care of itself. I’m not saying it’s always the case, but over long stretches of time that’s the best indicator for good QB play.

Regarding the last 5 games of the season, in wins, our defense gave up an average of 10.5 points per game, including 2 games where the opponent didn't score a TD and another where they were held scoreless for 3 quarters. I'm not saying that QB play didn't matter but if we are being honest, he didn't need to do much for these wins..lol. When it comes to wins and losses, I can't make it a QB stat, as there are too many factors.

 

[TenTwo]

@Rouxble already told you that he was 17th in DVOA

He was 17th in EPA/Play
He was 17th in Adj. EPA/Play
He was 17th in ESPN QBR (which is basically EPA adjusted for situations)
I want to say he was 14th in DYAR (but I can't remember where I saw that).

And how am I cherry picking? I just gave you where where he stood the first 13 games of the season and then showed you the last 4, which confirms my stance. We are only having this conversation because the last 4 games of the season practically doubled his TDs, added 1k yards, shot up his completion percentage, and his passer rating. The end.

I'm not saying that this is not something that we can't build on but 4 games shouldn't erase 13, although history shows that it do (for some).

DVOA, EPA, ESPN QBR…sounds legit.