Derek Carr was a top 10 QB in 2023 (1 Viewer)

[Deuuuuce]

Regarding the last 5 games of the season, in wins, our defense gave up an average of 10.5 points per game, including 2 games where the opponent didn't score a TD and another where they were held scoreless for 3 quarters. I'm not saying that QB play didn't matter but if we are being honest, he didn't need to do much for these wins..lol.

The offense and defense work off of each other. If a QB has a good handle on the game , he usually doesn’t put the defense in bad spots. Turnovers, clock management, situational awareness, clutch plays all matter more to me than box scores. If that wasn’t the case why even watch the game?

For example if a QB throws a pick 6 , and then gets the ball back and drives 80 yards for a TD it looks ok on a stat sheet, but that’s not at all ok. Also what if the team scores on special teams thereby not allowing the quarterback to put up numbers?

 

[gummbo70114]

I’m not putting Carr ahead of the following QBs when healthy:

Mahomes, Jackson, Burrow, Allen, Stroud, Lawrence, Stafford, Herbert, Purdy, Goff, Rodgers, Dak, Love, Hurts, Cousins.

He’s in a group with Tua, Mayfield, Geno Smith, etc who can look really good when stuff around them is perfect.

The only way I put Derek Carr in front of all these other quarterbacks is if he’s driving the bus and everyone else is a passenger

 

[jahsoul357]

DVOA, EPA, ESPN QBR…sounds legit.

Actually, they are very legit and commonly used across the board. If you don't acknowledge it, that's fine but these metrics don't just take raw stats at surface. It looks at things on a per play basis, so we can't use the last 4 games to say that he played his way into a top 10 spot based on a boost from the last 4 games.

The offense and defense work off of each other. If a QB has a good handle on the game , he usually doesn’t put the defense in bad spots. Turnovers, clock management, situational awareness, clutch plays all matter more to me than box scores. If that wasn’t the case why even watch the game?

For example if a QB throws a pick 6 , and then gets the ball back and drives 80 yards for a TD it looks ok on a stat sheet, but that’s not at all ok. Also what if the team scores on special teams thereby not allowing the quarterback to put up numbers?

Clock management is normally a function of the coaching but I get what you are saying. The thing with what you are saying is these thing don't show up in box scores but they are being accounted for in metrics. I like ESPN QBR because it is basically EPA/Play that accounts for the situation. It looks at turnovers but it looks at when, it looks at drops and pressures, among other things. But I digress.

I asked about the 7-9 seasons because defense always gets the blame but when you actually look at the losses, most of those losses had us losing either the turnover battle, time of possession, or both. So based on your criteria, who do we place the blame on?

 

[Deuuuuce]

I asked about the 7-9 seasons because defense always gets the blame but when you actually look at the losses, most of those losses had us losing either the turnover battle, time of possession, or both. So based on your criteria, who do we place the blame on?

Everyone should get blame. Over the course of an entire game there are always particular plays that stand out that might just go down in the box score as an incomplete pass for instance. But if that incomplete pass is a simple throw that should have been a touchdown its worth way more than just 0-1. The Qb can complete 80 percent of his passes, but if he has 1 or 2 really bad incompletions that would have iced the game, he deserves blame.

 

[jahsoul357]

Everyone should get blame. Over the course of an entire game there are always particular plays that stand out that might just go down in the box score as an incomplete pass for instance. But if that incomplete pass is a simple throw that should have been a touchdown its worth way more than just 0-1. The Qb can complete 80 percent of his passes, but if he has 1 or 2 really bad incompletions that would have iced the game, he deserves blame.

And that's all that I'm saying. I can't just make wins and losses about a QB when the reality is it can be so many things. Like you mentioned, we have seen many games where the offense didn't play the best but made a run to take the lead for the defense fail on the final drive. I can't say "that's the QB." While he might not have played the best all game, he put them in position to win. I think we are agreeing with each other in different ways..haha.

 

[DSnfla]

Respectfully, we are only having this conversation because of the last 4 games of the season, as @los226 pointed out.





It's easy to create this narrative when using raw stats but for metrics that takes things on a game by game basis, it doesn't work like that. Most metrics have him 14 and lower. I believe that the last 2 games gave us something to build on but to say that he played his way into a top 10 spot ignores over 75% of the entire season. Up until Week 15, the only thing that he could rest his hat on was completion percentage, which means nothing in the grand scheme of offensive production

LOL yeah let's make an assesment based on the games where the OL play was absolutely ABYSMAL and got DC knocked out of the game TWICE and was hurt. Let's also take into consideration the poor receiver play and the many drops.Also lets not consider the last 6 games where he had the highest QBR in the league. It's a league of what have you done lately and the lately DC was pretty darn good when he was healthy and the ol was not so putrid. And before you say look at who we played The Chiefs with the best QB in the game were 17th in strength of sched. but no one is saying look who they played. Or you can bring out Rouxble's DVOA fancy slide rule metric that sounds like what they do when they want to show the economy is on the upswing when everyone is jobless and broke. Sorry last part of the season DC was one of the top QBs in the league

 

[DSnfla]

“Most metrics”

Show them to us. Otherwise it’s just sounds like you made something up.

And when you cherry pick which games to use, you just water down your stance. And when you talk about the last 4 games, as if that’s some subset of data we should view as an anomaly…why? Were those not the most important games? I would argue that if we’re cherry picking to make a point, those games hold more value in both terms of ability to operate under pressure and forecasting future results.

GG

Brother Jahsoul is the king of the cherry pickers

 

[DSnfla]

DVOA, EPA, ESPN QBR…sounds legit.

DVOA sounds like the economic report that says everything is fine and you're standing in the soup line

 

[Deuuuuce]

And that's all that I'm saying. I can't just make wins and losses about a QB when the reality is it can be so many things. Like you mentioned, we have seen many games where the offense didn't play the best but made a run to take the lead for the defense fail on the final drive. I can't say "that's the QB." While he might not have played the best all game, he put them in position to win. I think we are agreeing with each other in different ways..haha.

If you asked a qb they would always say there are many things they should have done better if they didn’t get the W. At least any QB worth a darn would say that.

I love statistics, don’t get me wrong. I like the idea of narrowing the game down to certain things and trying to figure out what is most important when it comes to winning and losing. Money Ball is my favorite sports movie. I was also a huge fan of Daryl Morey when he was with the Rockets. He was a nerd from MIT that changed the NBA with advanced statistics, but he never won a championship because he hitched his wagon to a guy who was not clutch and careless in big games(James Harden). I believe in statistics but i believe in certain other things more. It’s an interesting discussion whether wins and losses matter more than individual statistics for QBs. I see arguments for both sides.

 

[meily]

Carr can play the position, it's his reputation that people are positioning themselves for or against.

 

[MSUSousaphone]

If your QB sucks but the rest of the team is good, your ceiling is 11-6.

If your QB sucks and your OL is awful but every thing else is good, a team is like lucky to be 9-7.

If a QB sucks, the OL is awful, AND the OC is trash, your team is 8-9 at best. Probably 7-10.

If the QB sucks, the OL is awful, the OC is trash, AND the HC is pathetic, the team is going to top out at 5-12. I mean, really that team is 3-14.

People get so hyperbolic with their whine. It can't be all of the above. We were good enough that some of those weren't the problem. I'm of the mindset that Carr and DA and good to great. We've got our new OC.....just fix the OL and replace anything we lose in the off-season and I'm happy.

 

[jahsoul357]

LOL yeah let's make an assesment based on the games where the OL play was absolutely ABYSMAL and got DC knocked out of the game TWICE and was hurt. Let's also take into consideration the poor receiver play and the many drops.Also lets not consider the last 6 games where he had the highest QBR in the league. It's a league of what have you done lately and the lately DC was pretty darn good when he was healthy and the ol was not so putrid. And before you say look at who we played The Chiefs with the best QB in the game were 17th in strength of sched. but no one is saying look who they played. Or you can bring out Rouxble's DVOA fancy slide rule metric that sounds like what they do when they want to show the economy is on the upswing when everyone is jobless and broke. Sorry last part of the season DC was one of the top QBs in the league

A few things..

-O-line play has been horrible the past 4 seasons. If you weren't saying anything about it now, gotta keep that same energy (not you directly but you get what I'm saying). They have gotten Drew, Taysom, and Jameis hurt as well
-Derek Carr has the 25th lowest drop rate among those that qualify (3.8%)
-If anything, the Chiefs this season showed that those that we believe are the best don't always elevate those around them. Plus their defense is legit. Plus, I think DVOA had Mahomes #10-12 but Rouxble can confirm.

Brother Jahsoul is the king of the cherry pickers

Please explain to the people how showing stats for 14 straight weeks of football is cherry picking. Would LOOOVE to hear this explanation.

DVOA sounds like the economic report that says everything is fine and you're standing in the soup line

-DVOA breaks down play by play and compares it to a league wide baseline. It looks at opponent strength, situational things, etc
-EPA looks at each play and how those plays actually help a team score (separates production vs the appearance of production)

Example.
Carr was #22 in EPA/Play and Adj EPA/Play weeks 1-14. He finished the season the season 17th. The last 4 games of the season were his best in terms of stats, metrics, and results across the board. It doesn't override his marginal play the first 13 games of the season, so it is impossible to create the narrative that he is a top 10 like using raw stats does. Film usually back up most metrics and it usually shows who weren't really watching games like that.

 

[Whodat GT]

I think a very solid gamefilm analysis could come from this discussion. Is Carr good enough or has he failed the team on critical moments? How was his play in critical losses?

 

[DSnfla]

A few things..

-O-line play has been horrible the past 4 seasons. If you weren't saying anything about it now, gotta keep that same energy (not you directly but you get what I'm saying). They have gotten Drew, Taysom, and Jameis hurt as well
-Derek Carr has the 25th lowest drop rate among those that qualify (3.8%)
-If anything, the Chiefs this season showed that those that we believe are the best don't always elevate those around them. Plus their defense is legit. Plus, I think DVOA had Mahomes #10-12 but Rouxble can confirm.



Please explain to the people how showing stats for 14 straight weeks of football is cherry picking. Would LOOOVE to hear this explanation.


-DVOA breaks down play by play and compares it to a league wide baseline. It looks at opponent strength, situational things, etc
-EPA looks at each play and how those plays actually help a team score (separates production vs the appearance of production)

Example.
Carr was #22 in EPA/Play and Adj EPA/Play weeks 1-14. He finished the season the season 17th. The last 4 games of the season were his best in terms of stats, metrics, and results across the board. It doesn't override his marginal play the first 13 games of the season, so it is impossible to create the narrative that he is a top 10 like using raw stats does. Film usually back up most metrics and it usually shows who weren't really watching games like that.

OL rankings
19 #5
20 #8
21 #18 Armstead missed 1/2 the season
22 #21 TA to Mia
23 # 26
They were not horrible in 20. and only reason they dropped in 21 was because TA missed 8 games . Enter Marrone and the decline got worse
So DVOA ranks Mahomes as the # 10-12 ranked QB, yeah I'm gonna believe the DVOA LMNOP stat . I'll stick to my QBR stat
You took the 1st 14 games of the season when the OL was awful and DC was hurt and it's all about what have you done lately not the beginning

 

[jahsoul357]

OL rankings
19 #5
20 #8
21 #18 Armstead missed 1/2 the season
22 #21 TA to Mia
23 # 26
They were not horrible in 20. and only reason they dropped in 21 was because TA missed 8 games . Enter Marrone and the decline got worse
So DVOA ranks Mahomes as the # 10-12 ranked QB, yeah I'm gonna believe the DVOA LMNOP stat . I'll stick to my QBR stat
You took the 1st 14 games of the season when the OL was awful and DC was hurt and it's all about what have you done lately not the beginning

Mahomes wasn't that good this season. I don't know what games you were watching...lol