Here’s what I don’t get re Saints ranking predictions (1 Viewer)

[guidomerkinsrules]

Let's be honest, losing Mike isn't really losing anything. since 2019 he averages 24 catches for 265 yards a year. Losing Ram is a legit concern, but we drafted Fuaga. Maye was outplayed last year by Howden, his younger and more inexpensive back up, it was absolutely not a loss.

We added St Brown, Cedric Wilson, Stanley Morgan, and drafted Bub Means, our WR unit is much improved from last season.

We added Will Harris, Kendal Vickers, Chase young and Willie Gay to the Defense, added depth to our Oline by signing Shane Lemieux, Justin Herron, Udoh and Lucas Patrick.

I really do not think there is any question that the roster has improved.

We have much of the same core from our top 10 defense from last season, and a new and improved play caller on offense.

Thinking we will do worse is weird.

This
We may certainly do worse - that’s how football works
But I don’t see an argument to ‘well do worse because ____’
I don’t think that argument exists

 

[fishing4food]

The players last year seemed out of sorts and not too supportive of DA. I could be wrong but I don't see much of a change this year with DA as the HC. It's not the roster that's the problem. There also hasn't been much growth or progression with the team since the hiring of DA and it looks like other teams are passing the organization by in the NFC South except the Panthers.

 

[St. Widge]

So most national punditry, majority of Saints fans and even Nick and Tripp, et al have the Saints doing no better than they did last year and a good chunk saying they’ll do significantly worse
And I guess the question is ‘based on what’?
Most all have concluded (rightly, imo) that bad Oline play AND bad play calling/personnel usage were the reason we were AVERAGE

Obviously losing Ram is significant BUT he played on one leg last year and we ‘replaced’ him with a top draft choice (yes he’ll need some seasoning)
I feel Oline play is probably going to be same level as last year with maybe a 25% chance of getting better
BUT almost certainly O play calling and personnel usage gets SIGNIFICANTLY better
And with slight upgrades on D, I just don’t see how all that adds up to ‘same or worse’

Is there anything other than blinding DA hate fueling these predictions?

I think some of it is that the O-Line is still a huge concern. Arguably with Peat leaving and Ram not likely to play, they may have taken a step back in an area that was already average to below average at best. It's possible that Fuaga is the answer at LT, Penning can take a leap forward at RT, and Saldiveri is the answer at LG given the new scheme is supposed to be very OL friendly, but they lost two known commodities on the OL and now will have to show that they somehow got better, not worse. I think they will be better with better talent and a better scheme, but it's a big question mark and an area where they could take a big step back from last year that they can't afford. I mean you are counting on a rookie RT moving to LT, Penning who got benched 1/4 of the way into the season and is now playing a position has not played before, and Saldeveri who barely saw the field last year and is moving from Tackle in college to Guard in the NFL, to be an improvement over three multi-year NFL starters including one All-Pro RT. And, if they do get worse, the season could implode.

Also, while I though the offensive play calling, game planning, and execution was bad last year, if you look at the rankings, they were actually ranked pretty high at the end of the year. So, if they do get better this year it will likely be in things like running the ball better and being able to close out games running the ball rather than a huge improvement in stats or rankings.

On defense, everyone got a year older including Demario and Cam. And while Young could break out and maybe Turner or Foskey will break out, they still have no established pass rush. And the guy they found at the end of last year to rush the passer, Baun, left in free agency.

So, while I think there should be more optimism, it takes fans who know the little things like the OL coaching change and the fact that DA, despite his faults, seems to be able to invent a pass rush out of nowhere, to know those things. So, I can certainly see how those in the media and outside of New Orleans could see this team as either being the same or worse. And, if DA loses the locker room which Underhill said he almost did last year, this team could implode. That situation is made worse by what looks to be a really difficult early season schedule. If they get off to a bad start, who knows what happens in that locker room?

Also, I think guys like Nick and Tripp have been burned in the past by what looked like a good team only to see things fall apart so they are going on the more conservative, "got to see it to believe it", side of things.

 

[SaintFanInATLHell2019]

And I guess I can see that (makes sense), it’s the ‘bottom falling out’ takes that confuse me

Especially when the bottom typically does not fall with teams with decent defenses. The Saints had a top 10 scoring defense last year, and nothing in the offseason made it significantly worse.

SFIAH

 

[Rexman100]

So most national punditry, majority of Saints fans and even Nick and Tripp, et al have the Saints doing no better than they did last year and a good chunk saying they’ll do significantly worse
And I guess the question is ‘based on what’?
Most all have concluded (rightly, imo) that bad Oline play AND bad play calling/personnel usage were the reason we were AVERAGE

Obviously losing Ram is significant BUT he played on one leg last year and we ‘replaced’ him with a top draft choice (yes he’ll need some seasoning)
I feel Oline play is probably going to be same level as last year with maybe a 25% chance of getting better
BUT almost certainly O play calling and personnel usage gets SIGNIFICANTLY better
And with slight upgrades on D, I just don’t see how all that adds up to ‘same or worse’

Is there anything other than blinding DA hate fueling these predictions?

two words : Jilted lover. When we signed Carr, the local and National media got excited and found themselves making decisions based off of vain imaginations. When a first year Qb in a brand new system and team w/ a shaky o-line inevitably failed. The lovers became jilted, and are now punishing the team for embarrassing them, hence the super fail predictions. Atlanta, guess what, you're up!

 

[bellangert]

What is the status of Trai Turner? Is he still a member of the Saints? Is he retired or still injured?

 

[SaintFanInATLHell2019]

two words : Jilted lover. When we signed Carr, the local and National media got excited and found themselves making decisions based off of vain imaginations. When a first year Qb in a brand new system and team w/ a shaky o-line inevitably failed. The lovers became jilted, and are now punishing the team for embarrassing them, hence the super fail predictions. Atlanta, guess what, you're up!

That's what happens when people project their expectations with emotions instead of using logic. Happens here all the time "The 2024 Saints will go 4-13, and Allen is fired mid-season." Absolutely no facts in evidence of this. No logic. Just a feeling based on the fact the the poster thinks Allen sucks and projects that feeling to a terrible season, Allen being fired, and then they feel justified in their feelings.

And you're right, the FailClowns are up next. Pundits think that the 'Clowns will be able to outscore their piss-poor defense with no pass rush because the organization stupidly spent their #8 pick on an injured QB that isn't going to be ready for 2 years instead of getting the best EDGE on the draft board. Their defense was terrible last year, will be terrible next year and will be their downfall.

I predict that the Saints will be in the driver's seat for the division after the first 6 weeks after taking down each of the Kitties, Failclowns, and the Succs. Along with one win between Dallas/Philly, they'll be in good shape for the rest of the season.

SFIAH

 

[guidomerkinsrules]

two words : Jilted lover. When we signed Carr, the local and National media got excited and found themselves making decisions based off of vain imaginations. When a first year Qb in a brand new system and team w/ a shaky o-line inevitably failed. The lovers became jilted, and are now punishing the team for embarrassing them, hence the super fail predictions. Atlanta, guess what, you're up!

Not a bad take

 

[Damarabi]

I think we're largely just in "gotta see it to believe it" territory. I think we'll be better but... It has to actually come together this year before it's too late.

Four of the eight losses were by a touchdown or less. If the new offensive scheme can keep more drives going with less opportunity for opposing offenses to be on the field, I can see a couple of more Ws.

 

[Rexman100]

That's what happens when people project their expectations with emotions instead of using logic. Happens here all the time "The 2024 Saints will go 4-13, and Allen is fired mid-season." Absolutely no facts in evidence of this. No logic. Just a feeling based on the fact the the poster thinks Allen sucks and projects that feeling to a terrible season, Allen being fired, and then they feel justified in their feelings.

And you're right, the FailClowns are up next. Pundits think that the 'Clowns will be able to outscore their piss-poor defense with no pass rush because the organization stupidly spent their #8 pick on an injured QB that isn't going to be ready for 2 years instead of getting the best EDGE on the draft board. Their defense was terrible last year, will be terrible next year and will be their downfall.

I predict that the Saints will be in the driver's seat for the division after the first 6 weeks after taking down each of the Kitties, Failclowns, and the Succs. Along with one win between Dallas/Philly, they'll be in good shape for the rest of the season.

SFIAH

"I predict that the Saints will be in the driver's seat for the division after the first 6 weeks after taking down each of the Kitties, Failclowns, and the Succs. Along with one win between Dallas/Philly, they'll be in good shape for the rest of the season."

I appreciate your take. But im cautious, because we're again back where we started, a new QB in his first year in a new system. There will be growing pains and a learning curve. Its more realistic to predict success toward the back end of the season.

 

[Scorpius the Allfather]

I think we're largely just in "gotta see it to believe it" territory. I think we'll be better but... It has to actually come together this year before it's too late.

I'm with you, but to OP's question, how does this explain some people thinking we'll do worse?

 

[Scorpius the Allfather]

Off the top of my head

Lost Mike, Ram and Maye
Gained Young and Gay

You can argue semantics but that is difficult to call an even swap much less an improvement. Other teams are only adding in the offseason.

Mike barely played, Ram was on one leg, and Maye was hurt last year as well, so did we really lose these guys?

 

[Scorpius the Allfather]

two words : Jilted lover. When we signed Carr, the local and National media got excited and found themselves making decisions based off of vain imaginations. When a first year Qb in a brand new system and team w/ a shaky o-line inevitably failed. The lovers became jilted, and are now punishing the team for embarrassing them, hence the super fail predictions. Atlanta, guess what, you're up!

That makes sense, people are still in jilted lover mode with Sean Payton leaving, so its infiltrated their line of thinking.

 

[St4ever]

I believe it’s much better to look worse through the media and then come on like gangbusters and win the Super Bowl!

 

[JWDtrey3]

Mike barely played, Ram was on one leg, and Maye was hurt last year as well, so did we really lose these guys?

This is exactly how I feel about "losing " those three players as well.