Here’s what I don’t get re Saints ranking predictions (2 Viewers)

[donato]

We added St Brown, Cedric Wilson, Stanley Morgan, and drafted Bub Means, our WR unit is much improved from last season.

This must be satire. These guys are bums. Adding them to an already weak WR corps doesn't help.

 

[guidomerkinsrules]

This must be satire. These guys are bums. Adding them to an already weak WR core doesn't help.

*corps
But how is it weak?

 

[big screen D]

Eternal optimist take:

Our defense will be better this year primarily because I expect the offense to play a complementary brand of football.

We have a solid special teams coach and personnel. The new kickoff rules magnify this advantage.

Our nearly twenty-year-old offensive playbook optimized for the GOAT is no more.

The new OC and his staff will get the most out out our available talent and play to the strengths of the young, athletic, O-line.

The one fly in the ointment is the front-loaded schedule of tough games while the players are still learning the new offense is what worries me the most.

 

[Artifactual]

2023 was most certainly a disappointing year for the Saints.

What's quickly forgotten in that ho hum performance is that the team finished the year with a winning record and tied for the division lead, only to lose out on a division championship due to a tiebreaker formula. A made FG and a completed catch could have flipped 2 losses into wins that would have won the division and placed the team in the playoffs. Although a benchmark goal is to make the playoffs we all agree that last years team wouldn't have traveled down that road very far. And had they won 10 or 11 games and made the playoffs there would have been false hope for 2024 by running it back with the same group and system from 2023.

The vehicle they traveled with most of the 2023 season sputtered along with a flat tire, a transmission that was slipping into gear, a muffler and tailpipe that were dragging the ground, a blown head gasket, and an engine that wasn't running on all cylinders. Thankfully that clunker is in the rear-view mirror now.

The Saints have rid themselves of a few players that were not performing up to their contract and expectations including one malcontent who had quickly become a distraction in the locker room and beyond. The team has also rid themselves of an entire offensive coaching staff (sans TE coach) that had become stale and had lost the confidence of the players. The offensive system that had been in place for almost 20 years has been retired.

A new light shines bright in 2024. The prevailing word should be Excitement! With the hiring of KK and the new offensive coaching staff coming in with a new system every offensive player on the team has embraced the changes and they are truly excited for what is to come. Even with the turnover and attrition in the offensive line the team has new players who are excited to play in the new zone run blocking scheme. Excitement breeds confidence. There are a lot of moving parts that have to gel between now and September, no doubt. Carr will be in his 2nd year with core receivers Olave, Shaheed, and Perry. An improved running game can set the tone for ball control and sustained possessions. Sustained possessions not only lead to more scoring, but it also will keep our defense off the field more often. Up tempo, motion, and play action, along with a diverse set of plays from multiple sets should make the offense less predictable and more capable in the red zone. Mark my words! Expect more scoring in 2024.

On defense the Saints return what was a top 10 unit from last year. Although a few core players including DD, Cam, and the HB are getting up in age, they will all return in 2024 with high expectations to perform well. Cam played hurt most of last year and he wasn't very effective in the pass rush. He has vowed to come into camp not only healthy but in the best shape possible in order to regain some juice from his youth. The weakest links in the defense last year were the ability to get to the QB, stopping the run, and getting off the field on 3rd down. Coverage in the slot was graded worst in the league. The team has added some help bringing in Chase Young. Carl Granderson is now a developed force. Payton Turner is healthy for the 1st time in his professional career and if he can stay healthy, he should bring some added pep to the pass rush attack. The team got much better by adding Willie Gay to the LBer group. Bresee will be more effective in year 2, especially so if he gets more help beside him. Kool-Aid brings added depth to the defensive backfield. Getting off the field on 3rd down, especially 3rd and long is critical of course to not only limiting scoring but shortening the number of plays on the field. There's plenty Excitement to go around with this group on defense.

On paper the Saints again have a favorable schedule based on teams records from last year. However, every year some bad teams get better, good teams get worse, and middle of the pack teams do one or the other. It looks as though the first 6 games of the Saints schedule will set the tone for the season. To be fair, the opening day game against the Panthers has to be considered a must win. The first six games include all 3 division opponents. The Saints will need to come out of this stretch with at least a 3-3 record with wins against their division opponents more important than the other games. If they are .500 or better after 6 games and at least 2 division wins they stand a very good chance of making a run and putting together some back to back wins along the way as the season progresses.

For me I find it hard to believe that the defense won't be as good or better than last year and the offense won't be better than last year.

We'll soon see. For now, there's plenty of Excitement going into the 2024 season. Who Dat!

 

[J.T.]

I think the team will be ok and marginally better than last year, with a chance to be even better than that. The O-line will be missing Ram, who played on one leg last year and Peat, who had his best year as a Pro. CGM (CPM) being off the team is actually an improvement. The Defense should be as good as last year. The new zone blocking scheme should help with the line. Carr did a good job last year, the haters just hate. He is the best we have by a long shot, he's an above average starter. If the O-line can adjust to the new scheme and play as well as an average unit, this team is poised for between 8-12 wins. Yeah, that is a huge spread, but one bounce of the ball can mean the difference between a W and a big fat L.

 

[ItFan]

So most national punditry, majority of Saints fans and even Nick and Tripp, et al have the Saints doing no better than they did last year and a good chunk saying they’ll do significantly worse
And I guess the question is ‘based on what’?
Most all have concluded (rightly, imo) that bad Oline play AND bad play calling/personnel usage were the reason we were AVERAGE

Obviously losing Ram is significant BUT he played on one leg last year and we ‘replaced’ him with a top draft choice (yes he’ll need some seasoning)
I feel Oline play is probably going to be same level as last year with maybe a 25% chance of getting better
BUT almost certainly O play calling and personnel usage gets SIGNIFICANTLY better
And with slight upgrades on D, I just don’t see how all that adds up to ‘same or worse’

Is there anything other than blinding DA hate fueling these predictions?

We were not AVERAGE, we had an average record with the second easiest schedule in 20 years league wide or something like that, that means 2nd in 640 schedules. We were an easy match for any good team.

 

[ItFan]

“Is there anything other than blinding DA hate fueling these predictions?”

It’s the other way around, friend. Our improved areas are unproven: KK, OL, rookies. There’s no surefire upgrade, though the rooks seem legit and it’s difficult to do worse than Carmichael. But it’s not like we hired a super top OC.

We lost Peat who was our best lineman.
We made very little to improve our non existent pass rush.
We have no possession, go-to receiver. TEs are meh.
I expect running game to be better but still anemic with this OL.
We have a great secondary, LBs who make nice plays, and stretches of nice passing game with Carr-Olave-Sheed. Quite a terrible kicking game.
We’re half a good team until proven otherwise.

 

[ItFan]

Off the top of my head

Lost Mike, Ram and Maye
Gained Young and Gay

You can argue semantics but that is difficult to call an even swap much less an improvement. Other teams are only adding in the offseason.

Also lost Peat, a starter for ten years who had maybe his best season as a tackle

 

[LAhotsauce]

“Is there anything other than blinding DA hate fueling these predictions?”

It’s the other way around, friend. Our improved areas are unproven: KK, OL, rookies. There’s no surefire upgrade, though the rooks seem legit and it’s difficult to do worse than Carmichael. But it’s not like we hired a super top OC.

We lost Peat who was our best lineman.
We made very little to improve our non existent pass rush.
We have no possession, go-to receiver. TEs are meh.
I expect running game to be better but still anemic with this OL.
We have a great secondary, LBs who make nice plays, and stretches of nice passing game with Carr-Olave-Sheed. Quite a terrible kicking game.
We’re half a good team until proven otherwise.

Peat was not and was never the best lineman. He finally had a year where he was not a turnstile for half the season. Good for him but nobody was that sad to see him go.

 

[LAhotsauce]

This is the New Orleans Saints. Unless they are coming off a bonafied 12-4, 13-3 type year, the predictions will always be way worse than they should. Great to good players will be undervalued.

Even back in 2009 when they won the super bowl, most pundits had them ranked in the 19th - 21st range before the season. I can even remember that year how many LOCAL media doubters there were when they had to play the Giants. As if that was some "prove it" type game against that mediocre team. Inferiority complex is real.

 

[donato]

*corps
But how is it weak?

Corps indeed. Thanks for the correction. Olave is more of a high-end #2 or low-end #1 (that doesn't mean 32 WRs are better than him when I assign that ranking). Shaheed is more of a #3. AT Perry could be a good 4 or 5. It's still a bit early there. None of those other guys are anything but a 5 if rostered at all. I'm a Saints fan, and I get that a lot of people have trouble being objective, but look at our WRs and other teams. It's not great, and not even good.

In fact, I just did a google search and ESPN has our WR corps ranked 28th:

ESPN ranks Saints' wide receiver corps low among NFL's 32 teams

ESPN ranked the New Orleans Saints’ wide receiver corps low among the NFL’s 32 teams. They have room for one more:

saintswire.usatoday.com

 

[Artifactual]

“Is there anything other than blinding DA hate fueling these predictions?”

It’s the other way around, friend. Our improved areas are unproven: KK, OL, rookies. There’s no surefire upgrade, though the rooks seem legit and it’s difficult to do worse than Carmichael.

It's hard to argue with this sentiment. Until it's proven on the field with success there remains justifiable reasons for caution.

But it’s not like we hired a super top OC.

The Saints interviewed several candidates for the position without offering anyone else the job. They waited on the coach they wound up getting. By all accounts he comes here with a high level of experience and football knowledge and is a stickler for attention to detail and discipline. Simply cutting down on penalties would be an improvement if nothing else. The offensive scheme is not as complicated and by design utilizes the athleticism of the lineman. A commitment to the ground game while using a heavy dose of play action should open the offense up as well as bring more consistency along with sustained drives. Play calling........

We lost Peat who was our best lineman.

Peat was never our best lineman. He was a long time tenured player who was often injured and frequently thought of as the weakest link. He had a good year in 2023. The Saints said they made an effort to resign him but at the figure he signed for in Vegas it appears the Saints didn't try to hard. Maybe his age was a reason. Maybe he didn't fit into the new scheme and lacked the athletic ability that will be required. Him leaving isn't a death nail. More like it hurt the depth at OL.

We made very little to improve our non existent pass rush.

Chase Young coming in on a prove it year with big dollar motivation and the return of Payton Turner injury free for the first time in his career and him also needing to prove something both could paint a different picture. Any contribution by 2nd year player Foskey or undrafted free agent rookie Trajan Jeffcoat would be an improvement. Cam Jordan played hurt most of last season. He may not be the force he once was but I'm expecting him to have a better year this year than last.

We have no possession, go-to receiver. TEs are meh.

Olave is a clutch as they come. He gets open upon will. You don't have to be a contested catch receiver to be a possession or a go to receiver.

Juwan Johnson was hurt a good part of last year. Foster Moreau entered the season having just escaped a possible deadly condition. Both will enter 2024 healthy. There's reason to be optimistic with the rookie Dallin Holker and there's been glowing reports on the improvement by Michael Jacobson. Taysom Hill is not a traditional true TE, however, he has proved to be adequate in the passing game. This may be a group by committee without a top of the league TE but they are a better group than what the Saints have fielded in recent years past with Trautman as the number 1 and JJ transitioning from WR while learning the postition.

I expect running game to be better but still anemic with this OL.

Kamara had a down year with a 3.9 yards per carry average. Most check down passes to him were late and left him with no space to run. 2024 will be different for AK41. For one, he won't be suspended for the first 3 games and returning from an embarrassing and shameful period in his life. Kendra Miller will enter 2024 healthy. He was coming off of a major knee injury entering 2023 as a rookie and wasn't healthy most of the year. Game 17 was a sign of things to come. Jamaal Williams will have to improve over his 2.9 yards per carry average or he won't be here. Simple as that. TH7 will be a more focal point in the running game. He will still see snaps in the power QB run game but will also get the ball in other ways. He's never averaged less than 5.0 yards per carry in his career. That won't change.

The offensive line was indeed anemic last year and there could be as many as 3 new starters in the lineup in 2024. It won't be the same group as last year. Unproven as of now. Unknown what the results will be. Although we can't expect the new lineup to be all world, we shouldn't expect them to be terrible just because they have yet to prove themselves one way or the other.

We have a great secondary, LBs who make nice plays, and stretches of nice passing game with Carr-Olave-Sheed.

The secondary is a strength on the team. It got better by adding Kool-Aid to the group. Adding Willie Gay to the LB room brings depth, speed, and athleticism.

Carr, Olave, and Shaheed will be in their 2nd year together and now have experience playing with each other. They should only get better together in 2024.

Quite a terrible kicking game.

Our kicker was a rookie last year and was much better than most give him credit for. He set or tied a bookoo number of Saints rookie kicker records and set a few team records as well. That can't be taken lightly. He was one of 5 kickers in the league who didn't miss a single extra point. The Saints called upon him to attempt a high number of 50 yard plus FGs where he faired pretty good. The missed 46 yarder in GB with the game on the line soured a lot of Saints fans on the rookie. You have to make those game winning kicks. With a year under his belt, he returns knowing he belongs. Overall accuracy will be the focus in 2024 for Grupe. The Saints also have Smyth on the team, and he will have a roster exemption, being part of the International Player Pathway Program. The Saints effectively will be able to keep both Grupe and Smyth on the roster in 2024. With the new kickoff rules its possible that the Saints will have both Grupe and Smyth active on gamedays where Smyth could be used as a kickoff specialist. Smyth at 6'4", 210 pounds and a former Gaelic Football player, is accustomed to playing rough. Smyth only started kicking a football a few months ago. So far, he has shown to have a strong leg capable of making FGs from 65 yards out. The Saints signed Smyth to a 3 year deal.

The Saints kicking game is far from terrible and may prove to be one of the teams strengths in 2024.

We’re half a good team until proven otherwise.

This statement is true. The Saints defense was top 10 last year and there's no reason to think they will regress. There have been some pieces added.

Until the offense shows it can come together and play winning football there's reason to be skeptical. On the other hand, there's plenty reason to be optimistic.

 

[big screen D]

The Saints effectively will be able to keep both Grupe and Smyth on the roster in 2024. With the new kickoff rules its possible that the Saints will have both Grupe and Smyth active on gamedays where Smyth could be used as a kickoff specialist. Smyth at 6'4", 210 pounds and a former Gaelic Football player, is accustomed to playing rough. Smyth only started kicking a football a few months ago. So far, he has shown to have a strong leg capable of making FGs from 65 yards out. The Saints signed Smyth to a 3 year deal.

Interesting point that I'm sure few, including myself, haven't thought of.

The thought of the diminutive Grupe having to help defend returns in the new-rules kickoffs is rather scary. Having one or the other of our two strong and athletic overseas punters/kickers handling kickoff duties is something I hope the coaches have considered.

 

[ItFan]

It's hard to argue with this sentiment. Until it's proven on the field with success there remains justifiable reasons for caution.



The Saints interviewed several candidates for the position without offering anyone else the job. They waited on the coach they wound up getting. By all accounts he comes here with a high level of experience and football knowledge and is a stickler for attention to detail and discipline. Simply cutting down on penalties would be an improvement if nothing else. The offensive scheme is not as complicated and by design utilizes the athleticism of the lineman. A commitment to the ground game while using a heavy dose of play action should open the offense up as well as bring more consistency along with sustained drives. Play calling........



Peat was never our best lineman. He was a long time tenured player who was often injured and frequently thought of as the weakest link. He had a good year in 2023. The Saints said they made an effort to resign him but at the figure he signed for in Vegas it appears the Saints didn't try to hard. Maybe his age was a reason. Maybe he didn't fit into the new scheme and lacked the athletic ability that will be required. Him leaving isn't a death nail. More like it hurt the depth at OL.



Chase Young coming in on a prove it year with big dollar motivation and the return of Payton Turner injury free for the first time in his career and him also needing to prove something both could paint a different picture. Any contribution by 2nd year player Foskey or undrafted free agent rookie Trajan Jeffcoat would be an improvement. Cam Jordan played hurt most of last season. He may not be the force he once was but I'm expecting him to have a better year this year than last.



Olave is a clutch as they come. He gets open upon will. You don't have to be a contested catch receiver to be a possession or a go to receiver.

Juwan Johnson was hurt a good part of last year. Foster Moreau entered the season having just escaped a possible deadly condition. Both will enter 2024 healthy. There's reason to be optimistic with the rookie Dallin Holker and there's been glowing reports on the improvement by Michael Jacobson. Taysom Hill is not a traditional true TE, however, he has proved to be adequate in the passing game. This may be a group by committee without a top of the league TE but they are a better group than what the Saints have fielded in recent years past with Trautman as the number 1 and JJ transitioning from WR while learning the postition.



Kamara had a down year with a 3.9 yards per carry average. Most check down passes to him were late and left him with no space to run. 2024 will be different for AK41. For one, he won't be suspended for the first 3 games and returning from an embarrassing and shameful period in his life. Kendra Miller will enter 2024 healthy. He was coming off of a major knee injury entering 2023 as a rookie and wasn't healthy most of the year. Game 17 was a sign of things to come. Jamaal Williams will have to improve over his 2.9 yards per carry average or he won't be here. Simple as that. TH7 will be a more focal point in the running game. He will still see snaps in the power QB run game but will also get the ball in other ways. He's never averaged less than 5.0 yards per carry in his career. That won't change.

The offensive line was indeed anemic last year and there could be as many as 3 new starters in the lineup in 2024. It won't be the same group as last year. Unproven as of now. Unknown what the results will be. Although we can't expect the new lineup to be all world, we shouldn't expect them to be terrible just because they have yet to prove themselves one way or the other.


The secondary is a strength on the team. It got better by adding Kool-Aid to the group. Adding Willie Gay to the LB room brings depth, speed, and athleticism.

Carr, Olave, and Shaheed will be in their 2nd year together and now have experience playing with each other. They should only get better together in 2024.


Our kicker was a rookie last year and was much better than most give him credit for. He set or tied a bookoo number of Saints rookie kicker records and set a few team records as well. That can't be taken lightly. He was one of 5 kickers in the league who didn't miss a single extra point. The Saints called upon him to attempt a high number of 50 yard plus FGs where he faired pretty good. The missed 46 yarder in GB with the game on the line soured a lot of Saints fans on the rookie. You have to make those game winning kicks. With a year under his belt, he returns knowing he belongs. Overall accuracy will be the focus in 2024 for Grupe. The Saints also have Smyth on the team, and he will have a roster exemption, being part of the International Player Pathway Program. The Saints effectively will be able to keep both Grupe and Smyth on the roster in 2024. With the new kickoff rules its possible that the Saints will have both Grupe and Smyth active on gamedays where Smyth could be used as a kickoff specialist. Smyth at 6'4", 210 pounds and a former Gaelic Football player, is accustomed to playing rough. Smyth only started kicking a football a few months ago. So far, he has shown to have a strong leg capable of making FGs from 65 yards out. The Saints signed Smyth to a 3 year deal.

The Saints kicking game is far from terrible and may prove to be one of the teams strengths in 2024.



This statement is true. The Saints defense was top 10 last year and there's no reason to think they will regress. There have been some pieces added.

Until the offense shows it can come together and play winning football there's reason to be skeptical. On the other hand, there's plenty reason to be optimistic.

I do not disagree with most what you say, it’s largely a matter of half full/half empty IMO.
Just a couple of arguments:
Peat was our best lineman last year, maybe along with McCoy.
Pass rush is a major concern, Young alone can’t turn it around. Foskey and Turner never contributed, so we can’t count them as an improvement.
TEs, idk, there was plenty of people expecting us to draft one.
Overall, the offense is a question mark with a bigger one about the OL. We can expect it to be way more efficient with Kubiak, but roster-wise I’m not that happy about how the offseason went. Fuaga is the only real upgrade. They’re betting everything on the new coaches, while more additions would help IMO. We used to tinker a lot to upgrade our offense any way we could

 

[RJ in Lafayette]

The reason is the last year's schedule. Our 9-8 record in 2023 was not an accurate depiction of the team because our schedule was so historically weak. Playing in most other divisions, we would have struggled to win seven games. I think the Saints will be better in 2024 because I expect some immediate contribution from our 2024 draft class, which I liked, and I think the coaching changes on the offensive side are a positive. But Las Vegas correctly has at 7.5 wins. I see a seven- or eight-win season.