Here’s what I don’t get re Saints ranking predictions (1 Viewer)

[EvilMike]

I've seen what the Saints teams look like, so I expect the Saints will continue to be solidly in the average and out of the playoffs.

 

[Bourbon]

We had the easiest schedule in recent memory last year, combined with a bunch of lucky breaks in terms of injuries for opponents. Our division was likely at a decade long low point. We still crapped the bed against any team with a pulse.

Our already aging team leaders are one year older.

Our coach is Dennis freaking Allen.

Yeah, it’s going to be a rough year ahead.

 

[guidomerkinsrules]

But Las Vegas correctly has at 7.5 wins.

again I guess I can’t understand correctly here - can anyone ‘correctly’ predict the effect of a completely revamped offense?

 

[sfidc3]

I don’t t pay attention to any of that. Too many variables throughout the whole league.

Yup, same here.....to early to even know who is going to be healthy when the season starts....

again I guess I can’t understand correctly here - can anyone ‘correctly’ predict the effect of a completely revamped offense?

Sure, it could be a disaster, it could be a godsend or it could be somewhere in between....season predictions this time of year are pretty much worthless.....

 

[SaintFanInATLHell2019]

The reason is the last year's schedule. Our 9-8 record in 2023 was not an accurate depiction of the team because our schedule was so historically weak. Playing in most other divisions, we would have struggled to win seven games. I think the Saints will be better in 2024 because I expect some immediate contribution from our 2024 draft class, which I liked, and I think the coaching changes on the offensive side are a positive. But Las Vegas correctly has at 7.5 wins. I see a seven- or eight-win season.

Vegas doesn't base odds on the teams. Vegas bases odds on the money. 7.5 is the place that puts money on both sides of the bet. Even if in reality the Saints were a projected 12 win team, they would not put up 11.5 odds because almost all bettors would take the under and the sports books would have to pay out a ton of money if the Saints only won 11 games.

Always remember that Vegas sports odds are based on the perceptions of the customers betting money and never the teams themselves.

SFIAH

 

[RaginCajun83]

Honestly I think they have the Saints season prediction correct. Slightly above average coach will yield slightly above average results

I’ll be shocked if they get to 9 wins

 

[SaintFanInATLHell2019]

Honestly I think they have the Saints season prediction correct. Slightly above average coach will yield slightly above average results

I’ll be shocked if they get to 9 wins

So, a team that had 9 wins last year would be "shocking" if they get to 9 wins again?

Coaches don't play the game. Players do. What exactly do you see in the 2024 Saints roster that would make it "shocking" to get to 9 or more wins? And what would the record be with excellent coaches and the same roster? If Reid were coaching here, or John Harbaugh for example. And how much of their successes are due to players like Mahommes and Jackson?

I mean we can all agree that Payton is an excellent coach yes? How did his squad do last year? Anyone expecting the Broncos to go 14-3 in 2024 due to having an excellent coach?

Sometimes I wonder if Saints fans now are deprecating the team with lower than reasonable expectations so that they can be surprised with the teams does better than expected?

SFIAH

 

[fanoftheyear7]

So most national punditry, majority of Saints fans and even Nick and Tripp, et al have the Saints doing no better than they did last year and a good chunk saying they’ll do significantly worse
And I guess the question is ‘based on what’?
Most all have concluded (rightly, imo) that bad Oline play AND bad play calling/personnel usage were the reason we were AVERAGE

Obviously losing Ram is significant BUT he played on one leg last year and we ‘replaced’ him with a top draft choice (yes he’ll need some seasoning)
I feel Oline play is probably going to be same level as last year with maybe a 25% chance of getting better
BUT almost certainly O play calling and personnel usage gets SIGNIFICANTLY better
And with slight upgrades on D, I just don’t see how all that adds up to ‘same or worse’

Is there anything other than blinding DA hate fueling these predictions?

It’s not DA hate! It’s being a realist. Dude can’t coach. Coaching in this league matters. Does our roster compare to Philly? No! Look how their season ended. Most would say our roster is better than say a Tampa or Green Bay. Look how their seasons went. Coaching matters. How do people miss this point so often. What has DA done the last 2 years with more talented teams and easier schedules on paper to make any of you think we are winning 10 or 11 games. I’m sorry. I hope I’m wrong but until he proves otherwise, I just don’t see it. The team is ill prepared. No in game adjustments. And nothing has been done to prove it will change. Prove it, DA!! Show us!!

 

[guidomerkinsrules]

It’s not DA hate! It’s being a realist. Dude can’t coach. Coaching in this league matters. Does our roster compare to Philly? No! Look how their season ended. Most would say our roster is better than say a Tampa or Green Bay. Look how their seasons went. Coaching matters. How do people miss this point so often. What has DA done the last 2 years with more talented teams and easier schedules on paper to make any of you think we are winning 10 or 11 games. I’m sorry. I hope I’m wrong but until he proves otherwise, I just don’t see it. The team is ill prepared. No in game adjustments. And nothing has been done to prove it will change. Prove it, DA!! Show us!!

I assume you’ll agree that he’s a good (perhaps even great DC)
But he falls short as an HC
Do you disagree with the Kubiak signing?
It seems like DC/ML recognized the issue at OC and went and got their guy
Or do you see it differently?

 

[madsaint1967]

And I guess I can see that (makes sense), it’s the ‘bottom falling out’ takes that confuse me

Yeah, got to prove it. 3 down years will do that. With that said, I am more optimistic this year than last!!

 

[Deuuuuce]

The first 5 or so games of our schedule are tough. If we can manage a winning record in those games, the expectations will be reset way higher. If we start out 2-4 or something like that, the prognosticators will come out and talk about how right they are, but it won’t mean the season is over. It’s just how the talking heads play the game.

 

[sfidc3]

I assume you’ll agree that he’s a good (perhaps even great DC)
But he falls short as an HC
Do you disagree with the Kubiak signing?
It seems like DC/ML recognized the issue at OC and went and got their guy
Or do you see it differently?

It seems like DA/ML recognized the issue at least a season too late if you are going to go that route.....

Wasted seasons with a HC that has proven absolutely nothing thus far except the ability to not make the playoffs with an obscenely easy schedule in the worst division in the NFL.....

Maybe this season turns out differently, I mean anything is possible....but right now the poster you are responding to is absolutely correct IMO.....

If the Saints fail to make the playoffs what is left to change? If they retain DA after that then I don't think the Saints organization is seriously trying to build a contender....right now, I can't see it any other way.....

Don't mean this to be a threadjack so apologies if it seems that way....

 

[guidomerkinsrules]

Maybe this season turns out differently, I mean anything is possible....but right now the poster you are responding to is absolutely correct IMO.....

So the thread asked why do some pundits/fans have the team slated to do worse when we addressed the major issue that most all agree was the reason we underperformed

Most everyone agrees that Oline and O playcalling were the primary reasons we were average last year
Bringing in KK & the Gang, we obviously address the play calling issue and potentially at least mitigate Oline issues
At worst that should mean we stay the same

Seemingly most of what people were mad at DA about got addressed this offseason

 

[Cajun Chat]

So most national punditry, majority of Saints fans and even Nick and Tripp, et al have the Saints doing no better than they did last year and a good chunk saying they’ll do significantly worse
And I guess the question is ‘based on what’?
Most all have concluded (rightly, imo) that bad Oline play AND bad play calling/personnel usage were the reason we were AVERAGE

Obviously losing Ram is significant BUT he played on one leg last year and we ‘replaced’ him with a top draft choice (yes he’ll need some seasoning)
I feel Oline play is probably going to be same level as last year with maybe a 25% chance of getting better
BUT almost certainly O play calling and personnel usage gets SIGNIFICANTLY better
And with slight upgrades on D, I just don’t see how all that adds up to ‘same or worse’

Is there anything other than blinding DA hate fueling these predictions?

I think your last point is driving most of it but also the other teams in our division have also gotten better. Add to that a rough schedule for 5 straight weeks after our opener. Confidence is a big thing in this game and going 1-4 or 1-5, which most predict, can send a team spiraling. Add to that if DA had a chance to have success it was last year. The schedule is not as kind this year hence the the predictions.

I'm in the DA camp that he's got to show me. I think most people are in that boat. With SP, regardless of who was at QB we always felt we had a competitive edge at the HC position and a chance to win or be competitive in every game. That is no longer the case. Ultimately, I think it proves out what we all know. DA is a very good DC not a HC.

 

[sfidc3]

So the thread asked why do some pundits/fans have the team slated to do worse when we addressed the major issue that most all agree was the reason we underperformed

Most everyone agrees that Oline and O playcalling were the primary reasons we were average last year
Bringing in KK & the Gang, we obviously address the play calling issue and potentially at least mitigate Oline issues
At worst that should mean we stay the same

Seemingly most of what people were mad at DA about got addressed this offseason

I think you are missing the bigger point.....A HC's leadership ability is incredibly important, I think that is at the crux of the offseason predictions.....and while I think it's silly at this point in time for predictions at the same time, to me, this is a firm indictment of DA's ability as a HC....

I'm not happy DA is still here as the HC, I mean it took 2 full years of offensive failures to replace an OC that had to be convinced to take the job in the first place...... thus far I believe DA has shown to be an incompetent leader.....but sometimes things do change, never say never....I find comfort in being wrong more often than I'd like and I hope this is the case with DA......