Here’s what I don’t get re Saints ranking predictions (1 Viewer)

[guidomerkinsrules]

It seems Saints fans are more optimistic than those who are not. The pro-football preview magazines should be coming out any day. I suspect they will project the Saints to finish third in the division and to have a losing season.

The coaching coaches can only help. But overall the talent on the team is mediocre. To those who disagree and believe we will win nine or more games, this is the time to take a trip to the casino and place a bet.

The only way betting works is for people to overvalue their wins and undervalue their losses
ie winning $200 last week matters more than losing $400 the week before
Seemingly we can convince ourselves to keep doing this by pretending there is some rationale to predictions - but there isn’t. It’s just justifications for chasing elusive highs

 

[sfidc3]

Let's see if we can get this straight.

You made a completely erroneous statement.

I entered the conversation and pointed out that What You Stated Is Not Factually Correct.

You replied to my post by going off rail with different praise for CSP instead of admitting what you said was not true and taking ownership of it.

Then you have the gall to call me delusional.

Really? SMH

See below, ES was referring to the consecutive 7-9 seasons which started in 2014.....so you must have missed that, I responded the way I did because any comparison up to this point of DA and CSP is ridiculous on its face, regardless of the time period chosen....So, no what I said was perfectly correct, your attempt at a "gotcha" is patently absurd.....another little issue of reading comprehension is that I never called you "delusional", I said if you believe DA has earned the right to a few down seasons then that is the case.....if the shoe fits though.....

I'm just saying, SP has plenty of warts to go with his obvious proficiencies. If we're honest, he's should have been a Richard, and not a Sean. Additionally, a big credit to SP is his turning it around, albeit to no ultimate success, after the 7-9 wasteland, which was in no small part due to the arrival of DA. I mean, I'm not sold, nor do I think anybody should be, really, but the vitriol is embarrassing and unwarranted. Nuance. Try it out.

Never claimed CSP was perfect, never said DA as a DC wasn't a big part of the turnaround.....The vitriol comes from seeing the Saints (before CSP) make the same mistake of holding on to coaches too long, hate to see mistakes repeated, hope it isn't the case this time but I have my doubts....

Sorry I don't have my B&G sunshine and rainbow glasses on all the time like some folks....Nuance, LMAO......like "legit curious"?

 

[IceHot]

This
We may certainly do worse - that’s how football works
But I don’t see an argument to ‘well do worse because ____’
I don’t think that argument exists

Is our schedule being harder a plausible answer?

Generally the rule of predictions is that with no other information the best guess is that things will be roughly the same from a single time increment to the next.

With NFL records somebody has to be worse for somebody else to be better.

I think we will be better personally but it beats the old days when prognosticators would pick 20 or more teams to be above .500

 

[Artifactual]

See below, ES was referring to the consecutive 7-9 seasons which started in 2014.....so you must have missed that, I responded the way I did because any comparison up to this point of DA and CSP is ridiculous on its face, regardless of the time period chosen....So, no what I said was perfectly correct, your attempt at a "gotcha" is patently absurd.....another little issue of reading comprehension is that I never called you "delusional", I said if you believe DA has earned the right to a few down seasons then that is the case.....if the shoe fits though.....

It doesn't matter what ES was referring to. You responded to his post By Making False Statements regardless of the why and because you did so........Ridiculous!

Instead of deflecting with a rebuttal to justify your statement why can't you just admit what you said was not factually correct?

You used CSP accomplishments in his 1st 3 years as if they were in his 1st 2 years, to compare DAs lack of such in his 1st 2 years.

That's just wrong.

You were implying that I was in belief of something that I had not even commented on stating I was delusional if I thought it to be so.

I'm not interested in "gotcha moments". Stating untruths and then blatantly blabbering on in an attempt to give credence to them is certainly patently absurd.

The only thing the shoe fits appears to be with you..........foot in mouth.

 

[sfidc3]

It doesn't matter what ES was referring to. You responded to his post By Making False Statements regardless of the why and because you did so........Ridiculous!

Instead of deflecting with a rebuttal to justify your statement why can't you just admit what you said was not factually correct?

You used CSP accomplishments in his 1st 3 years as if they were in his 1st 2 years, to compare DAs lack of such in his 1st 2 years.

That's just wrong.

You were implying that I was in belief of something that I had not even commented on stating I was delusional if I thought it to be so.

I'm not interested in "gotcha moments". Stating untruths and then blatantly blabbering on in an attempt to give credence to them is certainly patently absurd.

The only thing the shoe fits appears to be with you..........foot in mouth.

I think your reading comprehension needs work....this is the original posts that refer to multiple 7-9 seasons which occurred starting in 2014

Not trying to be snarky, legit curious. Did you have this same energy when SP was wallowing in defensive ineptitude and wasting one of the greatest quarterbacks of our era on 7-9?

The "legit curious" comment is comedy gold.....this is my response....which is quite accurate considering the timeline ES is referencing....

Would that be the same coach of the Saints that by that time had multiple playoff appearances, had already gone to 2 NFC championship games, won a SB, etc?

Legit curious? Hardly, it's the same old tired trope of pointing out the fact that CSP wasn't perfect but somehow that makes DA look.....better.....it doesn't.....it just makes folks look foolish when they make that argument...

The plain fact is DA has never taken a team to the playoffs in 6 years and has an overall record of .343.....so no, I guess I didn't have the same "energy" because there really is no comparing a coach who has already proven they can win a championship and one who has yet to even make the playoffs (even after a season with a very favorable schedule in the NFL's worst division).....

this is where you enter the discussion.....

To be factually correct Allen has only been HC for 2 Seasons to this point.

SP didn't accomplish in his first 2 seasons what you stated above.
In year 1 he took the Saints to the NFC Championship Game with Drew Brees at QB.
In year 2 he regressed and failed to make the playoffs.

I never said what CSP accomplished in his 1st 2 seasons to that point, I only referenced why CSP earned the right to have a few down seasons.....

Reading comprehension is important.....try it sometime, especially when you inject yourself in to a discussion (which is fine, this is a message board after all)...

 

[Artifactual]

It doesn't matter what ES was referring to. You responded to his post By Making False Statements regardless of the why and because you did so........Ridiculous!

Instead of deflecting with a rebuttal to justify your statement Why can't you just admit what you said was not factually correct?

You used CSP accomplishments in his 1st 3 years as if they were in his 1st 2 years, to compare DAs lack of such in his 1st 2 years.

That's just wrong.

You were implying that I was in belief of something that I had not even commented on stating I was delusional if I thought it to be so.

I'm not interested in "gotcha moments". Stating untruths and then blatantly blabbering on in an attempt to give credence to them is certainly patently absurd.

The only thing the shoe fits appears to be with you..........foot in mouth.

I think your reading comprehension needs work....This is the original posts that refer to Multiple 7-9 seasons which occurred starting in 2014

(Where in the post below does ES state multiple seasons beginning in 2014? Could it be you who needs to work on reading comprehension?)

Not trying to be snarky, legit curious. Did you have this same energy when SP was wallowing in defensive ineptitude and wasting one of the greatest quarterbacks of our era on 7-9?

The "legit curious" comment is comedy gold.....this is my response....which is quite accurate considering the timeline ES is referencing....

Would that be the same coach of the Saints That by that time had multiple playoff appearances, had already gone to 2 NFC championship games, won a SB, etc?

It is you who assumes that the ES is referring to multiple 7-9 seasons (plural) when In Fact, CSP went 7-9 in his 2nd season before what you stated above.

Legit curious? Hardly, it's the same old tired trope of pointing out the fact that CSP wasn't perfect but somehow that makes DA look.....better.....it doesn't.....it just makes folks look foolish when they make that argument...

The plain fact is DA has never taken a team to the playoffs in 6 years and has an overall record of .343.....so no, I guess I didn't have the same "energy" because there really is no comparing a coach who has already proven they can win a championship and one who has yet to even make the playoffs (even after a season with a very favorable schedule in the NFL's worst division).....

this is where you enter the discussion.....

To be factually correct Allen has only been HC for 2 Seasons to this point.

SP didn't accomplish in his first 2 seasons what you stated above.
In year 1 he took the Saints to the NFC Championship Game with Drew Brees at QB.
In year 2 he regressed and failed to make the playoffs. ***(In Year 2 CSP went 7-9.)***

I never said what CSP accomplished in his 1st 2 seasons to that point, I only referenced why CSP earned the right to have a few down seasons.....

By assuming that ES meant multiple 7-9 seasons in that isolated reply you took the liberty to reference accomplishments beyond 2007.

Reading comprehension is important.....try it sometime, especially when you inject yourself into a discussion (which is fine, this is a message board after all)...

I replied based on what was written and had no problem comprehending a statement that used 7-9 singularly, not plurally.

Maybe you should consider working on your reading comprehension a bit before reading something into a statement that wasn't actually said and then taking the liberty to inaccurately broaden your statements beyond the pale.

Yep, this is a message board after all. Let's both agree to agree that we disagree on the semantics of the word structure in the ES sentence in that post.

Time to move on.

 

[sfidc3]

I think your reading comprehension needs work....This is the original posts that refer to Multiple 7-9 seasons which occurred starting in 2014

(Where in the post below does ES state multiple seasons beginning in 2014? Could it be you who needs to work on reading comprehension?)



The "legit curious" comment is comedy gold.....this is my response....which is quite accurate considering the timeline ES is referencing....


It is you who assumes that the ES is referring to multiple 7-9 seasons (plural) when In Fact, CSP went 7-9 in his 2nd season before what you stated above.

Legit curious? Hardly, it's the same old tired trope of pointing out the fact that CSP wasn't perfect but somehow that makes DA look.....better.....it doesn't.....it just makes folks look foolish when they make that argument...

The plain fact is DA has never taken a team to the playoffs in 6 years and has an overall record of .343.....so no, I guess I didn't have the same "energy" because there really is no comparing a coach who has already proven they can win a championship and one who has yet to even make the playoffs (even after a season with a very favorable schedule in the NFL's worst division).....

this is where you enter the discussion.....



I never said what CSP accomplished in his 1st 2 seasons to that point, I only referenced why CSP earned the right to have a few down seasons.....

By assuming that ES meant multiple 7-9 seasons in that isolated reply you took the liberty to reference accomplishments beyond 2007.

Reading comprehension is important.....try it sometime, especially when you inject yourself into a discussion (which is fine, this is a message board after all)...

I replied based on what was written and had no problem comprehending a statement that used 7-9 singularly, not plurally.

Maybe you should consider working on your reading comprehension a bit before reading something into a statement that wasn't actually said and then taking the liberty to inaccurately broaden your statements beyond the pale.

Yep, this is a message board after all. Let's both agree to agree that we disagree on the semantics of the word structure in the ES sentence in that post.

Time to move on.

Maybe you missed this post from ES which confirms he was talking about multiple 7-9 seasons......

I'm just saying, SP has plenty of warts to go with his obvious proficiencies. If we're honest, he's should have been a Richard, and not a Sean. Additionally, a big credit to SP is his turning it around, albeit to no ultimate success, after the 7-9 wasteland, which was in no small part due to the arrival of DA. I mean, I'm not sold, nor do I think anybody should be, really, but the vitriol is embarrassing and unwarranted. Nuance. Try it out.

And lets be clear here, you injected yourself into our discussion, which is fine, this is a message board....but you got on a pretty high horse not really knowing, or lets say, misinterpreting what we were arguing about and you continue to spurt nonsense about it.....again reading comprehension is important.....

I do agree it is time to move on....

 

[evilsaint]

See below, ES was referring to the consecutive 7-9 seasons which started in 2014.....so you must have missed that, I responded the way I did because any comparison up to this point of DA and CSP is ridiculous on its face, regardless of the time period chosen....So, no what I said was perfectly correct, your attempt at a "gotcha" is patently absurd.....another little issue of reading comprehension is that I never called you "delusional", I said if you believe DA has earned the right to a few down seasons then that is the case.....if the shoe fits though.....



Never claimed CSP was perfect, never said DA as a DC wasn't a big part of the turnaround.....The vitriol comes from seeing the Saints (before CSP) make the same mistake of holding on to coaches too long, hate to see mistakes repeated, hope it isn't the case this time but I have my doubts....

Sorry I don't have my B&G sunshine and rainbow glasses on all the time like some folks....Nuance, LMAO......like "legit curious"?

Legit curious if you were one of the small cadre ready to ship SP after the three-peat of misery, in which case, your energy here would be consistent. If not, sorry about your mom or whomever. As for nuance, there are actually a plethora of positions between "rainbow glasses all the time" and the burn DA at the stake, he's the worst EVAR silliness.

 

[guidomerkinsrules]

Legit curious if you were one of the small cadre

fwiw, while it’s not exactly redundant a ‘cadre’ is already a small group
So a small cadre is a small small group

 

[sfidc3]

Legit curious if you were one of the small cadre ready to ship SP after the three-peat of misery, in which case, your energy here would be consistent. If not, sorry about your mom or whomever. As for nuance, there are actually a plethora of positions between "rainbow glasses all the time" and the burn DA at the stake, he's the worst EVAR silliness.

Ok Mr. Carne Asade Steak, nope I wasn't......the nuance irony is lost on you I'm afraid unless you think nuance = not subtle or even telegraphing what's to come, or simply showing your arse, whichever you prefer.....

Again, a coach that has already brought us multiple playoff wins including a SB win has earned the right to a few down seasons.....almost all coaches have them, even good - great ones.....

I consistently supported a HC that was by far the best we have ever had and one of the best in the NFL when he was here, no he wasn't perfect.......vs a HC that has grossly underachieved and appears to be in over his head as a HC (and hopefully that changes this year, we will see).....So, indeed, my energy has always been consistent, though not for the inane braindead, totally lacking situation awareness reasons you think defines consistent energy....... The legit curious one still doesn't get it......

 

[evilsaint]

fwiw, while it’s not exactly redundant a ‘cadre’ is already a small group
So a small cadre is a small small group

which it certainly was...

 

[evilsaint]

Ok Mr. Carne Asade Steak, nope I wasn't......the nuance irony is lost on you I'm afraid unless you think nuance = not subtle or even telegraphing what's to come, or simply showing your arse, whichever you prefer.....

Again, a coach that has already brought us multiple playoff wins including a SB win has earned the right to a few down seasons.....almost all coaches have them, even good - great ones.....

I consistently supported a HC that was by far the best we have ever had and one of the best in the NFL when he was here, no he wasn't perfect.......vs a HC that has grossly underachieved and appears to be in over his head as a HC (and hopefully that changes this year, we will see).....So, indeed, my energy has always been consistent, though not for the inane braindead, totally lacking situation awareness reasons you think defines consistent energy....... The legit curious one still doesn't get it......

I get it, you love your mom... It's OK!

 

[Bayouboy]

Is there anything other than blinding DA hate fueling these predictions?

You say "blinding hate" here, but is it really? I won't go into the statistics and known facts about our head coach, they've been discussed ad nauseum.....but other than "blind faith", what makes you believe a coach than has an abysmal record will suddenly find gold with this team in his third full year here? I mean we couldn't win the division last year with one of the easiest schedules in NFL history......we didn't face any top QB's all year. To say that was disappointing is an understatement.

Kubiak has to be stellar for this team to be any good. It think it helps, and we might win the division with ground and pound with a little defense, but this team is not even close to being a contender. Oh how I miss Drew Brees......

 

[sammymvpknight]

So most national punditry, majority of Saints fans and even Nick and Tripp, et al have the Saints doing no better than they did last year and a good chunk saying they’ll do significantly worse
And I guess the question is ‘based on what’?
Most all have concluded (rightly, imo) that bad Oline play AND bad play calling/personnel usage were the reason we were AVERAGE

Obviously losing Ram is significant BUT he played on one leg last year and we ‘replaced’ him with a top draft choice (yes he’ll need some seasoning)
I feel Oline play is probably going to be same level as last year with maybe a 25% chance of getting better
BUT almost certainly O play calling and personnel usage gets SIGNIFICANTLY better
And with slight upgrades on D, I just don’t see how all that adds up to ‘same or worse’

Is there anything other than blinding DA hate fueling these predictions?

Games aren’t played on paper. On paper we should be pretty similar…perhaps slightly better. But it also wouldn’t be surprising if the players lose hope and things just implode this year.

 

[livefromDC]

You say "blinding hate" here, but is it really? I won't go into the statistics and known facts about our head coach, they've been discussed ad nauseum.....but other than "blind faith", what makes you believe a coach than has an abysmal record will suddenly find gold with this team in his third full year here? I mean we couldn't win the division last year with one of the easiest schedules in NFL history......we didn't face any top QB's all year. To say that was disappointing is an understatement.

Kubiak has to be stellar for this team to be any good. It think it helps, and we might win the division with ground and pound with a little defense, but this team is not even close to being a contender. Oh how I miss Drew Brees......

I love the idea of the Saints being more creative with the run game to set up a balanced attack with a passing game that truly opens up the field. I hope that's what Kubiak meant. The league has been purposely leaning toward the passing game so much that it's devalued the RB position. I want the Saints to run ball effectively too, but they will have to take advantage of offensive rules that now overwhelmingly favors the game game against defenses.

I want to believe that DA didn't meddle with the Pete Carmicheal's offense. I also hope he gives Kubiak complete control over the offense this year. But given his track record, it's hard to believe the Saints aren't going to go ultra conservative on offense and rely on the defense to win games despite us all knowing the game is skewed toward passing offenses now. Ideally, Kubiak is going to try to open up both running and passing lanes for the backs and receivers to exploit via play calling that causes the defense to play on their heels. The Saints play calling was a lot more predictable recently. I'm hoping Kubiak's approach signals a return to a strategy that recognizes that most down and distance situations can be attacked with a pass or a run, forcing defenses to be prepared for a multitude of possible offensive plays rather than focusing aggressively on one likely play from the offense. Again, that's my hope. I see Kubiak being the key to this. We'll see early on just how much control Kubiak has, for instance, on 3rd downs deep in Saints territory.

Towards the end of his tenure, I remember Les Miles doing an on field interview with a reporter about LSU's planned offensive strategy. It's when I knew for sure that his time was coming to an end. As she asked him about the changing college game and how other programs have adapted their offensives, he smiled in that knowing way people smile when they're prepared to answer a question. His answer was along the lines of, "this is LSU and we've had plenty of success with how we do things. We have no reason to believe we won't continue to do so." We know now that this was his downfall. When it comes down to it, Miles just wasn't committed to changing. It's definitely possible for a coach to change, Saban certainly did, but it depends on the person.

I really want to believe DA has had an epiphany. When the rules favor the offense, the answer can't just be, we need to execute better next time. The Saints have to be in position to take advantage of the rules too and not just hoping to play perfectly enough to combat them. But I feel, that's what DA is comfortable doing, relying on the defense even though the deck is stacked against defenses. The Saints have done the best thing they could do to combat this, going get an offensive mind that can make their offense much less predictable. I'm hoping DA is complementary to Kubiak and not domineering.