Inflation here? gas/grocery prices just continue to climb (9 Viewers)

[saintmdterps]

yep.

You mean to tell me your Forester needs super? This is the only time I’m glad to not have my hot rod truck. It took super unleaded as well as an octane booster, and got 8-12mpg

 

[saintmdterps]

I didn't say it was a government edict. It was a result of the Covid complete shutdown of the economy. Demand disappeared and domestic oil stopped producing because they literally couldn't give away the oil they were producing. When the world started to open up last January, domestic companies were undermanned to begin producing again so the US had to rely on OPEC. Underemployment is still a problem, but companies are trying to get back to normal.

The only government edicts that have hampered bringing back production are the temporary suspension on new oil and gas leases on federal lands (but a judge blocked that last month, so companies should be able to pick up that slack again quickly), and the blocked petroleum sales in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

Finishing and opening the Keystone XL pipeline would help, but with all the complications of US and Canadian companies that had to stop work on that, lay off the workers, and get rid of the equipment, I'm not even sure that can be done at this point.

The problem with the XL was that the oil was not ultimately destined for the US IIRC.

 

[saintmdterps]

Oil isn’t going anywhere. Try to go green as much as we want, the camels nose is in the tent.

Yup. I support electric vehicles but they’re pricy even with tax credits, and there are 286 million gas powered vehicles in the US. Like the gun djinn, the gasoline djinn is not going back in the bottle any time soon

 

[zeetes]

You mean to tell me your Forester needs super? This is the only time I’m glad to not have my hot rod truck. It took super unleaded as well as an octane booster, and got 8-12mpg

hey, turbo boxers love octane too.

 

[Turfie]

This is saying home prices could likely go up 10% this year

U.S. house prices to rise another 10% this year

U.S. house prices are set to climb in double digits this year even as the Federal Reserve embarks on its expected series of interest rate hikes, according to a Reuters poll of property analysts who forecast a sellers' market for another two years.

www.reuters.com

I could see 10% averaged across the country maybe. But in the desirable areas I could see 15%.

 

[saintmdterps]

hey, turbo boxers love octane too.

It’s just not very Birkenstock of you

 

[Goatman Saint]

This really is unsustainable. I have no idea what the answer is, but these prices can’t continue.

 

[zeetes]

It’s just not very Birkenstock of you

i don't even wear birkenstocks. i sport these bad boys:

 

[Saint_Ward]

Crude oil production isn't the only issue effecting pump prices. Since the pandemic and the drop in demand and losses in revenue most refiners deferred refinery turnaround as a cost savings initiative. Most of these deferments are now over due and likely we could see significate reductions in refinery output as units are taken offline or work at reduced capacity until this work is done. Since these turnaround initiatives are not published or widely communicated we likely won't know they are happening. Below is an article from 2021 about it. However, from what I've heard many refiners had work scheduled for 3Q to 4Q 2021 but the Omikron variant pushed most of that into this year. And since turnaround is a very specialized work and only a few companies do it then its going to take most of 2022 for it to get it all done.

Lack of overhauls at U.S. refiners could stall industry recovery

U.S. oil refiners are predicting a strong recovery in fuel demand in the second half of this year as vaccination rates increase and workers are expected to resume commuting and taking vacations.

www.reuters.com

Sounds like to me, this means that most of the economic hardships are based on what companies decided to do as a result of the pandemic. Places that laid a lot of people off, or slowed down work, didn't realize how hard it is to ramp up fast. They didn't want to have an inventory backlog, because some places tax that, and it's just sunk capital.

Some companies were smart, and built up inventory, knowing the dip would be short term. but many did not.

Don't forget we have a large generation retiring. the expertise is gone in quite a few places. that makes turning the machine on again slower.

 

[nolaswede]

i don't even wear birkenstocks. i sport these bad boys:

They see me rollin - they hatin!!!

 

[efil4stnias]

This is saying home prices could likely go up 10% this year

U.S. house prices to rise another 10% this year

U.S. house prices are set to climb in double digits this year even as the Federal Reserve embarks on its expected series of interest rate hikes, according to a Reuters poll of property analysts who forecast a sellers' market for another two years.

www.reuters.com

I could see 10% averaged across the country maybe. But in the desirable areas I could see 15%.

It may be more than that in St. Tammany due to Parish President is mulling a 6 mo moratorium on new builds parish wide on anything sitting on less than an acre.

I think the town hall is this week and I know several builders saying there will be 100s there in protest.

But it may still pass to allow them to get caught up with infrastructure plans and development which should be top priority. The expansion in st tammany has been meteoric over last decade or so.

 

[jrdbrn]

Is this what the 80s turned into?

 

[UncleTrvlingJim]

We’re producing more oil than we were in January of last year and it has been rising every month since.

There hasn’t been a single regulation or policy which has effected current oil production, and we are on pace to hit record production in 2023. All policies that went into effect in January of 2021 won’t affect production for like 5-10 years.

In the interest of accuracy, I did a little more research over the weekend on the various restrictions the current administration put in place, and they likely will have an effect on how much oil we are producing in 3-5 years (not 5-10 as I previously claimed).

We still will reach record prodcution in 2023, and once again be a net exporter of oil. However, we probably won't be producing quite as much as we would if those restrictions were not put in place.

 

[Smaug]

It may be more than that in St. Tammany due to Parish President is mulling a 6 mo moratorium on new builds parish wide on anything sitting on less than an acre.

I think the town hall is this week and I know several builders saying there will be 100s there in protest.

But it may still pass to allow them to get caught up with infrastructure plans and development which should be top priority. The expansion in st tammany has been meteoric over last decade or so.

As a St. Tammany resident, I strongly agree with the moratorium.

One particular St. Tammany water system (Tammany Utilities) is in a horrible state. Many recommended fixes in the past have not been implemented, and current homeowners are getting more vocal in their demands for change. Adding more capacity to an already strained system is a recipe for disaster.

 

[0rion]

Just did the math yesterday.....at current prices (which I think will go up if anything) our annual VA beach trip hauling the camper would cost $220 more in fuel this year than last. Not life altering difference but enough to feel. Basically we'll skip an eat out dinner and eat at camp instead to break even.