Inflation here? gas/grocery prices just continue to climb (5 Viewers)

[UncleTrvlingJim]

yes a google search confirmed. I was just curious as to the way he presented it, as if it had to do with something "more" than simple supply/demand.

I mean, we phased out r22 ( to be fully phased out by 2023 ) so that, in and of itself, would lead to higher pricing since r410a is now the refrigerant du jour.

Then toss in Chinas rotating lock downs over last 2 years ( and still going ), shipping costs and logistics and viola - here we are.

Yeah, we are all learning the downsides of our whole just-in-time, zero inventory, complex supply chains. They are tremendously efficient when they work, but...

As a whole, I feel like most of our systems do not properly factor-in or price risk.

 

[efil4stnias]

Yeah, we are all learning the downsides of our whole just-in-time, zero inventory, complex supply chains. There are tremendously efficient when they work, but...

As a whole, I feel like most of our systems do not properly factor-in or price risk.

JIT- sheesh i remember that from 30 years ago in US Army AND econ 102.

like you said, remarkably efficient when EVERYTHING is aligned and operating in unison. But just ONE of the links breaks down, its a mess.

 

[Goatman Saint]

You'd be surprised. In contract negotiations with a couple of companies, I've heard them grumble that nobody wants to work because of all of that stimulus money.

That's why I posted it. I find the notion that nobody is working, and that the unemployment numbers are inflated to be ridiculous.

Right now, in The People's Republic of Indianastan, the unemployment rate is 2.2%.

Of that 2.2% you'd have to believe that a big chunk of that is churn. People moving from one job to another. You'd also have to consider how many of them can't pass a drug screen. How many can't work ridiculous hours because they have children and child care is so expensive. You also have to consider that, if you're an employer, maybe nobody wants to work for YOU.

Too many people acting as managers who know nothing about it acting more like failing, cold war era, high school football coaches than managers. That act hasn't worked in a long time. If word gets out that you're a difficult employer, good luck to you.

Here’s part of the issue. The declining work force has been well known for years. Due to a lot of factors, a lot of people are retiring early that I know. Selling overpriced houses and moving where they bank hundreds of thousands of dollars and a good early retirement. The Boomers are leaving faster than was projected, and Gen X has been maxed out for years.

There simply hasn’t been enough young workers entering the workforce because there are simply not enough of them to replace the boomers. Immigration used to make up the difference, but the last few years tightening that up has had some serious issues with replacing population with immigrants, and those immigrants going back 20 years in California have not kept the larger family sizes that they projected, and are having more along the lines of 2 kids or less which doesn’t help.

Want to be scared though? Wait 20 years. These newer generations aren’t having many kids.

 

[Zaphod]

Anyone have any idea what the new fed interest rates will do to mortgage rates? I finally got into a position where I could think about buying a home just in time for rates to increase. I’m just wondering how bad it’ll be and if it’ll derail my plans. Supposedly the new rates will help housing prices come down but they’d already started declining in my area earlier this year and I doubt they can fall much further than they are now. Feels like I’m probably going to get screwed.

 

[Goatman Saint]

Anyone have any idea what the new fed interest rates will do to mortgage rates? I finally got into a position where I could think about buying a home just in time for rates to increase. I’m just wondering how bad it’ll be and if it’ll derail my plans. Supposedly the new rates will help housing prices come down but they’d already started declining in my area earlier this year and I doubt they can fall much further than they are now. Feels like I’m probably going to get screwed.

Really it will take a month or so to see exactly what happens. Prices are cooling a bit, but who knows if interest rates bring them down as there’s a lot of money floating around right now.

What needs to happen is the cost of construction materials to go down, and also some reform of the ability to have some entities buy up huge numbers of houses as an investment leaving them vacant. There are 3 on my street alone which just sit here as people bought them and are sitting on them in hopes of flipping at the right time. It’s also blowing up the rental market but that’s a different topic.

 

[efil4stnias]

Anyone have any idea what the new fed interest rates will do to mortgage rates? I finally got into a position where I could think about buying a home just in time for rates to increase. I’m just wondering how bad it’ll be and if it’ll derail my plans. Supposedly the new rates will help housing prices come down but they’d already started declining in my area earlier this year and I doubt they can fall much further than they are now. Feels like I’m probably going to get screwed.

It's 6.75 right now . Per Google. I'm sure it's different based on credit and location but prolly not much

 

[Zaphod]

It's 6.75 right now . Per Google. I'm sure it's different based on credit and location but prolly not much

Is that after the latest increase or the previous one? I’m not really experienced with this sort of thing

 

[efil4stnias]

Is that after the latest increase or the previous one? I’m not really experienced with this sort of thing

I think the. 50 basis point increase is baked in that number. But keep in mind again it may be lower where u are vs other markets.

Ok so 6.75 for so so credit ...Over 800 score around 5.7

So may trend up just a tad in next mo but not much

 

[Zaphod]

I think the. 50 basis point increase is baked in that number. But keep in mind again it may be lower where u are vs other markets.

Ok so 6.75 for so so credit ...Over 800 score around 5.7

So may trend up just a tad in next mo but not much

Thanks. I have a high credit score so hopefully I’ll fair okay. I’m hoping to buy something over the summer.

 

[buzd]

It's 6.75 right now . Per Google. I'm sure it's different based on credit and location but prolly not much

bankrate.com is showing around 4% for excellent credit and I find it's usually within a quarter to half a point, although I imagine you would know better than me.

 

[efil4stnias]

bankrate.com is showing around 4% for excellent credit and I find it's usually within a quarter to half a point, although I imagine you would know better than me.

Yeah I think regionally it differs. And I'm not in banking but do have home builders that are telling me their clients getting 5 to 5.25 on 30 yr fha right now. Just over 6 on investment property.

 

[Mr. Sparkle]

The rocket keeps going up.

Inflation barreled ahead at 8.3% in April from a year ago, remaining near 40-year highs

Inflation as gauged by the consumer price index was expected to rise 8.1% year over year in April, according to Dow Jones estimates.

www.cnbc.com

The consumer price index, a broad-based measure of prices for goods and services, increased 8.3% from a year ago, higher than the Dow Jones estimate for an 8.1% gain. That represented a slight ease from March’s peak but was still close to the highest level since the summer of 1982.
Removing volatile food and energy prices, so-called core CPI still rose 6.2%, against expectations for a 6% gain, clouding hopes that inflation had peaked in March.

The month-over-month gains also were higher than expectations — 0.3% on headline CPI vs. the 0.2% estimate and a 0.6% increase for core, against the outlook for a 0.4% gain.

The price gains also meant that workers continued to lose ground. Real wages adjusted for inflation decreased 0.1% on the month despite a nominal increase of 0.3% in average hourly earnings. Over the past year, real earnings have dropped 2.6% even though average hourly earnings are up 5.5%

Something to watch is that we are coming up on the one year anniversary of the current spike in inflation - because inflation is generally measured year over year, it may start to appear that inflation is falling once we get into July and August, because 8% over 5% will be measured as 3% inflation even though prices have risen considerably more than that overall.

We'll need to see some deflation YOY before we get much relief.

 

[DaveXA]

The rocket keeps going up.

Inflation barreled ahead at 8.3% in April from a year ago, remaining near 40-year highs

Inflation as gauged by the consumer price index was expected to rise 8.1% year over year in April, according to Dow Jones estimates.

www.cnbc.com

Something to watch is that we are coming up on the one year anniversary of the current spike in inflation - because inflation is generally measured year over year, it may start to appear that inflation is falling once we get into July and August, because 8% over 5% will be measured as 3% inflation even though prices have risen considerably more than that overall.

We'll need to see some deflation YOY before we get much relief.

Yeah, and salaries aren't keeping up. And the poor continue to get poorer. The middle class is gonna become scarce if we keep trending in this direction.

 

[UncleTrvlingJim]

The rocket keeps going up.

Inflation barreled ahead at 8.3% in April from a year ago, remaining near 40-year highs

Inflation as gauged by the consumer price index was expected to rise 8.1% year over year in April, according to Dow Jones estimates.

www.cnbc.com

Something to watch is that we are coming up on the one year anniversary of the current spike in inflation - because inflation is generally measured year over year, it may start to appear that inflation is falling once we get into July and August, because 8% over 5% will be measured as 3% inflation even though prices have risen considerably more than that overall.

We'll need to see some deflation YOY before we get much relief.

I don't think we really want any deflation. I think what you want to see is inflation level off back to under 3%, and average wages increase to catch up with price inflation. I haven't kept up with wage increases, but I'm sure it hasn't been increasing at 8% YOY. So ideally, you'd see inflation go back down to 3% or less and wage increases stay above that for a few years.

 

[UncleTrvlingJim]

Just checked and it looks like wages have been increasing at about 4.5 to 5%, so about a 3-4% deficit. If that can hold while inflation goes back to target, then it would take 2 years for the average worker to catch up to where they were prior to this spike.

There are of course other indicators of financial health, of course, but that's a rough estimate.