It's that time of year again! (Hurricane Season Thread) (1 Viewer)

[Saint_Kyle]

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=658775464136782


From the NHC, predicting a storm forming in about a week. Never seen them predict them forming a week out.



Experts, where ya at?

 

[TriPolarTroy]

Pretty cool man thanks for posting it

<iframe src="https://www.facebook.com/video/embed?video_id=658775464136782" width="636" height="446" frameborder="0"></iframe>

 

[FLIPPY]

Gotta love......."Not a guarantee, but we'll keep and eye on it"...

Just let me know if I need gas for the generator....

 

[bclemms]

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=658775464136782


From the NHC, predicting a storm forming in about a week. Never seen them predict them forming a week out.



Experts, where ya at?

NHC isn't predicting a hurricane. The National Hurricane Update, whoever the hell that is, is simply stating that conditions will be favorable and a single model is showing a storm forming. They fail to mention that the model is not one of the better models and the other dozen or so models don't form a storm.

If you would like the NHC official predictions go here.
National Hurricane Center
For the tropical outlook from the NHC go here.
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

That facebook page is just some guys posting an outlier model painting a picture of a hurricane in the middle of the gulf on 4th of July while pushing their hurricane app.

In case you wondered why the NHC would never post something like that on Facebook, read the comments and you will understand.

 

[jrdbrn]

They lucked out with Barbara using that model.

 

[Zack Lee]

curious if we have any meteorologists or students that post with us here?

I still go to wunderground.com pretty much daily once we get to this time of year. More info than you can do anything with but I find a lot of it useful.

I see now they have a mobile app so I will be checking that out as well.

 

[saintsfanfl]

curious if we have any meteorologists or students that post with us here?

I still go to wunderground.com pretty much daily once we get to this time of year. More info than you can do anything with but I find a lot of it useful.

I see now they have a mobile app so I will be checking that out as well.

I like WU as well and my PWS reports to it with conditions from my home.

A few years ago I started lurking on a storm forum which covers the tropics quite extensively, and has a lot of members that range from amateur to Pro-Mets. I've learned a lot lurking there for the past 3 years and joined a year ago. There is at least 1 more SR member that is an active member on the site as well, more active than me.

 

[Zack Lee]

what is the name, if you don't mind?

 

[bclemms]

what is the name, if you don't mind?

Probably

STORM2K

 

[saintsfanfl]

Probably

STORM2K

Yes, that's it. Forgot to mention in my comment below.

 

[SaintArchieManning]

Fingers crossed we have a quiet season this year.

 

[FLIPPY]

Well this prediction certainly went over like a fart in church....

Remind me never to rely on this model....

 

[bclemms]

Well this prediction certainly went over like a fart in church....

Remind me never to rely on this model....

Never rely on a single run from any model or anyone else that does.

 

[bclemms]

The same CMC model is showing a very weak storm or depression forming over the northern gulf and hitting south La later this week followed by a strong storm or weak hurricane taking a similar path to Hurrican Charlie hitting the west coast of Florida. I wouldn't put much stock into either of these happening, it is the only model showing this.

The NHC has a 40% chance of development for a wave a pretty good ways out in the Atlantic that will certainly be worth keeping an eye on but most of the models keep development (if any) very slow and weak.

The bigger story is the long range models starting to indicate a wide scale pattern shift. The GFS has the Bermuda high strengthening towards the end of the week and building over west Africa which will start the training of tropical waves being ejected off the coast of Africa. This is the type of setup where we usually see the tropics getting really busy. The GFS also shows multiple depressions or weak storms way out in the Atlantic towards the end of the week with favorable conditions for development. This is a long way out but a pretty good indicator that things will be getting busy in and around the gulf in couple weeks.

 

[Zack Lee]

which one is this thing?

 

[P-town balla]

Howdy.