Mike Garafolo: Saints are set to make a decision on Derek Carr within the next few weeks; likely to have multiple suitors if released (5 Viewers)

[RaisingTheBar]

Ram doesn't need a June 1 designation, his salary is at a minimum and he will simply retire after June comes. The June 1 designation is for players you cut in March and get the cap space back in June.

And I haven't heard that they are releasing Taysom from anywhere other than a rumor site that is far less credible than the people that have reported Moore being concerned about the QB room. Besides, we don't know if Taysom is eyeing retirement or if he would rather take a pay cut than be released. He's not catching on anywhere else with that knee and it would be better for him to rehab with a team than on his own. So many options with him.

If he retires that's one thing, if not I don't know why post June 1 wouldn't apply.

Where there's smoke there's usually fire and it makes sense to release Taysom as he is out at least half the season, this is the last non voidable year of his deal and cap hit is over 18 million.

 

[SigFreudianSlip]

TE room needs to be completely overhauled. We're likely losing JJ.

Nothing against him at all but I hope he does leave. He’s been very underwhelming as a TE.

 

[RaisingTheBar]

Nothing against him at all but I hope he does leave. He’s been very underwhelming as a TE.

I don't disagree, but it still leaves a hole that needs to be addressed. Especially with Foster coming off of a knee injury/surgery.

 

[StudioSaint]

Where there's smoke there's usually fire...

And more often than not, that smoke and fire is coming from the mob's torches.

 

[RaisingTheBar]

And more often than not, that smoke and fire is coming from the mob's torches.

I'm not sure what you're trying to imply, but I think there's a lot of fans who do not want to part with Taysom.

 

[StudioSaint]

I'm not sure what you're trying to imply, but I think there's a lot of fans who do not want to part with Taysom.

I wasn't implying anything. I responded to, "if there is smoke, then there is fire." In that case, the smoke is the "reports" which would make the fire the mob of "reporters" that create the "reports" that are the smoke.

What I'm saying is that usually the fire behind the smoke of "reports" is more often than not just the mob of "reporters" all parroting the same speculations. "Reporters," especially the ones that self-publish through the internet have an intense fear of missing out on the views and clicks of a story, because of the advertising revenue that comes with it.

Since most of those "reporters" aren't able to get either a confirmation or denial directly from the team, they instead choose to just repeat the speculation. They don't do actual journalism to earn a living, they gossip on the internet to earn a living. They're basically a sports only version of Coffee Talk on the internet instead of on a local cable access channel.

 

[RaisingTheBar]

I wasn't implying anything. I responded to, "if there is smoke, then there is fire." In that case, the smoke is the "reports" which would make the fire the mob of "reporters" that create the "reports" that are the smoke.

What I'm saying is that usually the fire behind the smoke of "reports" is more often than not just the mob of "reporters" all parroting the same speculations. "Reporters," especially the ones that self-publish through the internet have an intense FOMO of missing out on the views and clicks of a story.

Since most of those "reporters" aren't able to get either a confirmation or denial directly from the team, they instead choose to just repeat the speculation. They don't do actual journalism to earn a living, they gossip on the internet to earn a living. They're basically a sports only version of Coffee Talk on the internet instead of on a local cable access channel.

So you don't think he's getting released?

 

[St. Widge]

I get where your coming from, but the strategy of not paying for average to above average QB's and drafting rookie QB's until you find one that hits has failed at a high rate.

A team can pay for an average to above average QB and have winning records with them, while still also being able to get an above average to elite QB in the draft, without having a pick in the top 10 of the draft.

Compare the success rate of QB's taken in the top 10 to those taken outside of the top ten. The QB's in the top 10 have a much lower per capita success rate than those who are taken later.

Take it a step farther. Look at the successful QB's taken in the top 10 by the team that originally held that spot versus those taken by someone who traded up into that spot. For instance, Mahommes was drafted at number 10, but the Cheifs traded up to get him.

A team does not have to be have a top 10 draft spot to be able to draft a great QB. Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Aaoron Rodgers were all taken outside the top 10. A lot of the most successful QB's were drafted somewhere from the 10th pick of the first round to the top of the second round. Jalen Hurts was drafted in the second round. Lamar Jackson was taken with the 32nd pick.

A team doesn't have to have a bad record to have a good chance at drafting a good QB. What they have to have is good scouting to identify good QB's in the draft and good coaching once they're drafted. And a front office willing to trade up to get their targeted player.

I'd argue that the success rate of teams with average to above average QBs is in the same range of failure rate as rookie QBs. In fact, I think there is really less failure for teams that go after the young vets that you hope just needed a fresh start. And I think that's because they have the money to build the rest of the team. And, they are ready to make a run if/when they do hit on a franchise QB. If you are paying someone like Carr or Cousins, you never have the money to build the team and you are never doing to have a franchise QB. It's really the worst of both worlds.

If you have your team built, the way the Saints thought they had the team built when Payton left, but you don't have a QB, then it makes sense to add the average to above average vet like Carr or Cousins. But, we you are at the point of a rebuild either because your guys got old or you decided to tear it down, guys like Carr and Cousins don't make sense because you don't have the money to rebuild the roster or, at least, jump start a rebuild.

Arguably, Carr was worth it for the first year when you thought your roster was ready to at least get in the playoffs and make some noise, but that's no longer the case. It's time to rebuild whether we like it or not and paying $40 million per year for an average QB hinders that rebuild. We might not have a choice this year, but next year it will definitely be time to move on.

 

[Elvis]

If he retires that's one thing, if not I don't know why post June 1 wouldn't apply.

Where there's smoke there's usually fire and it makes sense to release Taysom as he is out at least half the season, this is the last non voidable year of his deal and cap hit is over 18 million.

All I’m saying is that that particular Twitter account isn’t necessarily smoke. It’s a rumor account and not even claiming to have a source.

 

[St. Geezy]

I agree with that, but it's not a uniquely Saints issue, it's a league marketplace issue. Teams have to overpay for average QB's who aren't on rookie contracts.

Take a look at how many QB's still on rookie contracts who were starters in the Super Bowl compared to those QB's in the Super Bowl who weren't on rookie contracts. That's a big part of why FA QB's are overpaid.

For a little perspective on the idea that their are QB's that can will their team to victory:

• Tom Brady played 23 seasons. He had 10 Super Bowl appearences won 7 and lost 3.
• Drew Brees played 20 seasons. He had 1 Super Bowl appearence and won it.
• Patrick Mahomes has played 7 seasons as a starter. He has been to the Super Bowl 5 times and he won 3 and lost 2.

If those guys can't consistently will their teams to victory all by themselves, then no QB can. It's a myth that a QB can will their team to victory. The better a QB is the better the chance the team has of winning, but the QB alone can not win a game. If they could, why bother having the other 52 guys on the roster?

Now, the converse is also true. The worst your QB is the less chance you have at winning games, even if the rest of the team is average. That's why all QB's are so highly valued. An average QB on a solid team gives you a better chance of winning than an all time great QB on a below average team. Just look at Brees's career if you want an example.

I'm not saying it's good that QB's are so highly paid. I'm just explaining why.

Great post.

I mentioned this before, but it amazes me how Saints fans, of all fanbases, don’t have a better appreciation for this stuff.

The mere fact that Drew Brees has so many losing/.500 type seasons on his resume, much less only making it through the proverbial Super Bowl gauntlet only once in 20 years, speaks to the fact that too much gets made of QB record/playoff history when in reality, this is a team sport and it’s the team that yields the results.

 

[StudioSaint]

So you don't think he's getting released?

I don't think any "reporters" have a clue, because the Saints run a tight ship and don't let information like that leak to anyone.

Look at all the "reports" that no one wanted the Saints job. They were wrong. The Saints didn't give them any information, so they speculated that people were withdrawing from consideration, because they didn't want the job. They withdrew, because they found out Moore was going to get the job.

Even the inside information that was posted here turned out to be off the mark.

To be perfectly clear, I have no idea if the Saints will release Hill and I don't think anyone outside of the Saints does either. I think it's likely the Saints haven't even made a decision yet.

I could make valid arguments for letting him go and for keeping him. I don't think it's as cut and dry as some people do. I hope that Moore wants to keep him and Loomis and Khai find a way to do it.

 

[StudioSaint]

I'd argue that the success rate of teams with average to above average QBs is in the same range of failure rate as rookie QBs.

That argument is irrelevant to what I said.

I said that historically the per capita success rate of QB's drafted in the top 10 is not as good as the per capita success rate of QB's taken after the top 10 or taken in the top 10 by a team that traded up into the top 10.

I also said that history shows that QB's still on their rookie contracts are unlikely to make it to the Super Bowl and even fewer are able to win it. Burrows is one of the exceptions. He got to the Super Bowl and lost. He's not made it back since then.

The point I made is that a team can be competitive while paying and playing an average QB and still be able to get an above average to elite QB in the draft. They don't have to blow up their roster and let themselves suck for a year just to draft an above average to elite QB.

The Saints could have drafted Brees, Lamar and Hurts and others even though they were competitive in the seasons before each of those drafts.

In fact, I think there is really less failure for teams that go after the young vets...

I never said anything about the age of the free agent QB's that are average QB's. Young free agent QB's who are average cost just as much, and sometimes more, than the older ones.

Bottom line, over paying for an average QB to stay competitive does not keep a team from being able to draft a great QB. Great QB's are drafted outside of the top 10 draft picks amost every year. A team doesn't have to have the absolute best QB to win Super Bowls. If they did, the same team would win the Super Bowl every year unless their QB was injured or retired.

 

[DSnfla]

I don't think any "reporters" have a clue, because the Saints run a tight ship and don't let information like that leak to anyone.

Look at all the "reports" that no one wanted the Saints job. They were wrong. The Saints didn't give them any information, so they speculated that people were withdrawing from consideration, because they didn't want the job. They withdrew, because they found out Moore was going to get the job.

Even the inside information that was posted here turned out to be off the mark.

To be perfectly clear, I have no idea if the Saints will release Hill and I don't think anyone outside of the Saints does either. I think it's likely the Saints haven't even made a decision yet.

I could make valid arguments for letting him go and for keeping him. I don't think it's as cut and dry as some people do. I hope that Moore wants to keep him and Loomis and Khai find a way to do it.

Yup. the reporters really know very little , especially the national ones. Prime example is that Russini story that she heard that CKM didn't like the QB room so that may make him not take the job. It was nonsense, CKM said that he wanted the job from the get go. He was sold by the 2nd interview. She and all the other click bait chasers wanted to push that narrative to boost their sites. But all the chicken little crowd jumped on it as gospel.

 

[SigFreudianSlip]

Saw this on another Saints site, sorry if already posted…apparently he moved back to Cali awhile ago?

 

[DSnfla]

Saw this on another Saints site, sorry if already posted…apparently he moved back to Cali awhile ago?

Means nothing , Brees would go back to San Diego in the offseason