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I'm in eastern central Louisiana. It'll be past me by about 3 - 4 pm. It's still got me plenty nervous, though.
Potential Severe Weather tomorrow, 3-22-22 (Update: Tornadoes on ground in metro area) (2 Viewers)
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bclemms
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To give everyone an idea on timing and what the storm will look like, here is the high resolution rapid refresh model run that goes out 48 hours. As you can see it's a really well formed squall line. This is one of the models but one that tends to handle these solutions quite well. There will likely be a ton of tornado warnings tomorrow but the biggest threat is straight line winds. What you want to really worry about for tornadoes are isolated storms that form out in front of the line.
www.pivotalweather.com
Tomorrow is going to be very windy. In fact, most guidance is suggesting the windiest conditions most will see tomorrow is not even in the storms but in the hour or two before the squall line moves through. The thunderstorms will come and go in about an hour. Here are the wind gusts on the model.
www.pivotalweather.com
The significant tornado index, which basically includes the amount of instability and wind shear as well as some other factors. For reference, the tornado in Arabi last week was near 6 just before the tornado hit. Take this index with a grain of salt because it's really designed for supercells which are far, far, more likely to spawn violent tornadoes and the models aren't really showing supercells.
www.pivotalweather.com
Almost all guidance is mixing down warm, dry air aloft during the day wiping out a lot of the moisture needed for severe weather. When mixing occurs it also reduces the wind shear. This is very rare this far South so there is the chance that the environment could be more primed than being indicated.
My best guess, we will see a massive outbreak of tornado warnings since every forecaster is going to be on high alert. We might actually see quite a few tornado reports as well but most of these are only threats to trailers. Anytime we are in peak season and get this much shear working through the area then it just takes one storm to do something bad and that chance is certainly there. I really don't see the potential for an outbreak of long track violent tornadoes tomorrow and almost everyone here will experience about 15 minutes of strong thunderstorm then some light rain and it will be over.
I wont be here to update any changes tomorrow so please don't rely on me and listen to your local mets and forecasters. Take warnings seriously but I also wouldn't stress over this.
Also, before anyone asks. I will be out I really don't know where I'm planning on being, none of it looks particularly good for chasing. If I had to guess right now somewhere along the I-55 corridor near the Ms/La line, mostly because it's close to home.
The system next week is the one that has my attention.
Models: HRRR - Pivotal Weather
View HRRR weather model forecast map image for Composite Reflectivity in Southeast US on pivotalweather.com.
Tomorrow is going to be very windy. In fact, most guidance is suggesting the windiest conditions most will see tomorrow is not even in the storms but in the hour or two before the squall line moves through. The thunderstorms will come and go in about an hour. Here are the wind gusts on the model.
Models: HRRR - Pivotal Weather
View HRRR weather model forecast map image for 2 m AGL Temperature in Southeast US on pivotalweather.com.
The significant tornado index, which basically includes the amount of instability and wind shear as well as some other factors. For reference, the tornado in Arabi last week was near 6 just before the tornado hit. Take this index with a grain of salt because it's really designed for supercells which are far, far, more likely to spawn violent tornadoes and the models aren't really showing supercells.
Models: HRRR - Pivotal Weather
View HRRR weather model forecast map image for Significant Tornado Parameter (SigTor) in Southeast US on pivotalweather.com.
Almost all guidance is mixing down warm, dry air aloft during the day wiping out a lot of the moisture needed for severe weather. When mixing occurs it also reduces the wind shear. This is very rare this far South so there is the chance that the environment could be more primed than being indicated.
My best guess, we will see a massive outbreak of tornado warnings since every forecaster is going to be on high alert. We might actually see quite a few tornado reports as well but most of these are only threats to trailers. Anytime we are in peak season and get this much shear working through the area then it just takes one storm to do something bad and that chance is certainly there. I really don't see the potential for an outbreak of long track violent tornadoes tomorrow and almost everyone here will experience about 15 minutes of strong thunderstorm then some light rain and it will be over.
I wont be here to update any changes tomorrow so please don't rely on me and listen to your local mets and forecasters. Take warnings seriously but I also wouldn't stress over this.
Also, before anyone asks. I will be out I really don't know where I'm planning on being, none of it looks particularly good for chasing. If I had to guess right now somewhere along the I-55 corridor near the Ms/La line, mostly because it's close to home.
The system next week is the one that has my attention.
DJ1BigTymer
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please tell
bclemms
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It's a week out so anything I tell about today could be completely different tomorrow. I'll update this thread if the threat materializes like the long range models have been indicating.
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Shirt. Worse than this one and the last one?
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The line moved through here before 5am. We got Tornado Watch'ed around 11pm last night. It was nothing more than some lightning, thunder and rain. It rolling through at the time of night probably reduced the available instability to make it worse. It was really windy yesterday and last night. It's calm right now. Good luck to everyone in the path and let's hope it's just a squall line with minimal straight line winds.
bclemms
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First tornado of the day happened near Springdale, Arkansas. Looks to have been a relatively strong tornado. It took place in the level 1 area inside the line.
Glad you made it out ok. The problem here on the coast is this system will be working with the heat of the daytime.
It's currently 78 here in Biloxi. High winds are expected to start around noon . The rain and tornado threats around 5 pm.
Once again, warm weather in front of a cold front is a bad recipe. I won't lie, I'm a tad nervous
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Rotation detected in Bossier Parish headed right towards me... Next ten minutes gonna be rough. Glad I have CBD Calming chews for the dogs.
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You good?
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ChrisinNOLA
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I thought this only happened in Kansas & Midwest. We have gone from hurricane alley to tornado alley. Fingers crossed no more damage tonight.
bclemms
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Had a brief debris spike on radar. You make it ok?
About to have a ton of these along the line the next several hours.
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the wind out here is something. I dont ever recall this sort of "pre-front" wind event like this now from last week, this week and im assuming again next week.
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Looks like the crazy was a few miles south of my house. Just had some brisk gusts slamming the rain into the windows.
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