Potential Severe Weather tomorrow, 3-22-22 (Update: Tornadoes on ground in metro area) (1 Viewer)

[bonnjer]

Heads up. We have another storm system coming in Wednesday that will be similar to this past one. Looks like most of the state will be in Level 2, with some in Level 3. Looks to be similar timing, as well.

 

[DavidM]

It was a 16yr young man driving home from a job interview at Whataburger. A Chevy dealership in Ft Worth is goving him a brand new Chevy Silverado. The kid said he wasn’t driving away as much as he as trying to get to a safe place.

Also sounds like he’s getting the job.

 

[bclemms]

Also sounds like he’s getting the job.

My good friend shot the video.

 

[Cage1]

I can't tell how the truck was on its driver's side. Unless it made a 3/4 rotation, it seems like the wind would have pushed it over to the right, or passenger side.

And looking at it again, it looked like he was going the wrong way down the service road, got blown onto his driver side, spun back the "correct" way, then uprighted.

 

[gboudx]

I can't tell how the truck was on its driver's side. Unless it made a 3/4 rotation, it seems like the wind would have pushed it over to the right, or passenger side.

And looking at it again, it looked like he was going the wrong way down the service road, got blown onto his driver side, spun back the "correct" way, then uprighted.

Some service roads in Texas are 2-way. Especially in more rural areas. Took me a bit to get used to when I first moved here. You may be driving along, come up on a yield sign intended for you to yield to vehicles exiting the freeway. Or vehicles crossing over your lane to enter the freeway. It’s some jacked up stuff.

 

[Cage1]

Some service roads in Texas are 2-way. Especially in more rural areas. Took me a bit to get used to when I first moved here. You may be driving along, come up on a yield sign intended for you to yield to vehicles exiting the freeway. Or vehicles crossing over your lane to enter the freeway. It’s some jacked up stuff.

That ones not two way. There’s a do not enter sign the other direction and turn arrows on the street in the lane that would be the other direction

 

[bonnjer]

Wind profiles were highly favorable for heavy rain and flooding. Parameter space was high but Meridional flow (South to north mid level flow) leads to slow moving squal lines and brief QLCS tornadoes. It’s pretty much the same setup that SPC always goes overboard with and end up with a busted forecast.

What are you seeing for Wednesday's storms? Is it a similar setup to Tuesday?

 

[efil4stnias]

What are you seeing for Wednesday's storms? Is it a similar setup to Tuesday?

My wife starting to freak out as our Senior will be on Bus to Disney for Senior Trip on Wed. All the moms are really. lol

so B, what say you?

 

[bclemms]

What are you seeing for Wednesday's storms? Is it a similar setup to Tuesday?

Very similar to the last system. Volatile environment, shear profiles are very similar. As of now, the models are showing the best instability and shear profiles to be slightly displaced. More than likely the main line will be really messy and conducive to quick spin up tornadoes similar to last week. Anytime we are in peak season with high parameter space the risk is there for a strong tornado but like last week, I don't see this as being a big tornado outbreak.

I should clarify that, I don't really care about total tornado numbers. When a bunch of weak, brief spin up tornadoes boost tornado numbers it's still classified as an outbreak but I'm much more concerned with supercell tornadoes that have the potential to track long distances and are much more likely to be violent.

Still a little ways out so plenty of time for things to change but as of now don't stress too much.

 

[efil4stnias]

Very similar to the last system. Volatile environment, shear profiles are very similar. As of now, the models are showing the best instability and shear profiles to be slightly displaced. More than likely the main line will be really messy and conducive to quick spin up tornadoes similar to last week. Anytime we are in peak season with high parameter space the risk is there for a strong tornado but like last week, I don't see this as being a big tornado outbreak.

I should clarify that, I don't really care about total tornado numbers. When a bunch of weak, brief spin up tornadoes boost tornado numbers it's still classified as an outbreak but I'm much more concerned with supercell tornadoes that have the potential to track long distances and are much more likely to be violent.

Still a little ways out so plenty of time for things to change but as of now don't stress too much.

So most of the "energy" in this system will be somewhat "displaced" - meaning instead of a concentrated area to focus on, it could be anywhere, right?

 

[DavidM]

I can't tell how the truck was on its driver's side. Unless it made a 3/4 rotation, it seems like the wind would have pushed it over to the right, or passenger side.

And looking at it again, it looked like he was going the wrong way down the service road, got blown onto his driver side, spun back the "correct" way, then uprighted.

Pretty sure he was crossing a divided section of highway 290, and the tornado overtook him from behind before he could make the left turn.

 

[bclemms]

So most of the "energy" in this system will be somewhat "displaced" - meaning instead of a concentrated area to focus on, it could be anywhere, right?

Yes and no, as of now I wouldn't put too much stock into exact locations with the forecast. Things can change so fast this time of the year in the south. I'd just know a low chance of strong tornadoes on Wednesday into Wednesday night exists anywhere along and south of the I-20 corridor in La/Ms. Once tomorrow's storm evolution starts to play out it'll better define the forecast for Wednesday. I don't want to confuse any messaging NWS or SPC has out by getting overly complicated on my thoughts, particularly a couple days out.

 

[bclemms]

Also, early indicators is another very similar system will come in same time next week but too far out to say with any certainty.

 

[faceman]

Very similar to the last system. Volatile environment, shear profiles are very similar. As of now, the models are showing the best instability and shear profiles to be slightly displaced. More than likely the main line will be really messy and conducive to quick spin up tornadoes similar to last week. Anytime we are in peak season with high parameter space the risk is there for a strong tornado but like last week, I don't see this as being a big tornado outbreak.

I should clarify that, I don't really care about total tornado numbers. When a bunch of weak, brief spin up tornadoes boost tornado numbers it's still classified as an outbreak but I'm much more concerned with supercell tornadoes that have the potential to track long distances and are much more likely to be violent.

Still a little ways out so plenty of time for things to change but as of now don't stress too much.

I was listening to the wwl met on the way home. the difference is it will be more northern than the last system. St Tammany and the the coastal counties on the Ms. coast need to be prepared

 

[bonnjer]

So, level 4's are usually only issued a handful of times per year. Well, we've got a large chunk of Louisiana in a level 4 out of 5 for the second time in about a week. The SPC looks to have just copied / pasted the graphic for the convective outlook from last week.