Read this and tell me why anyone WOULDN'T pick PIT (1 Viewer)

[tenordas]

Chairman,
I appreciate your breakdown and I would never say the Steelers should be taken lightly, especially since this game is in their house; however, my main problem with your arguement is the claim that Pittsburgh has faced a tougher schedule than we have.
You cite the following as toughest opponents:
"Pittsburgh's 4 toughest opponents have been Cincy, Denver, at JAX, and at San Diego (all losses)

NO's 4 toughest opponents have been Baltimore, Philly, at Carolina and who? One of the Tampa games, I guess?"
First of all, the Roadkill are 5-3, so they are the 4th in the toughest opponents column for the Saints. Did we maul them? Yes, but that doesn't mean they aren't a tough opponent.
Their toughest opponents:
Cincy 4-4 (and in the midst of a finger-pointing breakdown)
Denver 6-2 (rolling)
Jacksonville 5-3
San Diego 6-2
Our toughest opponents:
Baltimore 6-2
Philly 4-4
Mylanta 5-3
Carolina 4-4
Also pretty even, though I would argue Carolina is better than their record indicates and Jacksonville is not nearly as good as their record indicates. LSSpam has already mentioned the loss to the Raiders by the Steelers (we've not had the luxury of facing a team as bad as the Raiders) and the skewed stat of points by two games (KC and Baltimore).
My point is I don't think Pittsburgh has had a tougher schedule. They lost all four of their tough games, we went 2-2 in ours. We have the edge there and in the all-important stat of turnovers. Yes, take away the turnovers and Pitt's record probably reverses to 6-2, but take away turnovers and we beat the Ravens easily, probably beat the Panthers as well (we only had one turnover, but in a game that close, it might have swung it our way). Thing is, you can't remove the turnovers. Turnovers matter hugely and will likely have a big outcome in the game Sunday as well.
Make no mistake, Black & Gold faithful, the Steelers are a tough team, the Chairman is right to point that out, but they definitely have some issues that we can exploit. I'm sure they feel the same about our team. We'll see who's better at accomplishing that on Sunday.

 

[SaintJ]

CLMAO, given (i) the closeness of the stats, (ii) the relatively even strength of schedule (I'll fill in Atlanta, a winner over the Steelers, as our fourth tough opponent), (iii) the Super Bowl hangover that tends to affect teams that make a one-off run into the game, combined with Cowher's so-far undenied lame-duck issues, and (iv) the Steelers' prediliection for killing mistakes and desperately uneven QB play, I do think it's fair to question the near-universal pick of Pittsburgh in the media.

But this has nothing to do with us.

You'd think at least somebody would say, as I have been all week, that despite all the chest-thumping for the Steelers that "this is the week", that there's no indication that this or any other week is the one that the Steelers will play a full game, that the Saints righted the ship last week after the Ravens loss with a resilient domination of Tampa Bay, and that with a 6-2 team coming in that is steadily improving and usually doesn't beat itself, this game is pretty much a toss-up, and if I had to pick I'm taking the team on the rise with something to prove, as opposed to the hung-over team that is still looking for itself after eight weeks of listless, mediocre play.

I have no problem with anyone taking the Steelers, with or without the points, this week. I think the reflexive, across-the-board choice speaks much more about the laziness of the observers and their unconscious defense of their previous positions no matter how incorrect in the face of new evidence. Very little about this Steelerism is about their opponent, it's all about what they think they're supposed to say about the Steelers. They'd say the same thing even if they were playing the Pats or Colts this week.

 

[kfran]

You'd think at least somebody would say, as I have been all week, that despite all the chest-thumping for the Steelers that "this is the week", that there's no indication that this or any other week is the one that the Steelers will play a full game, that the Saints righted the ship last week after the Ravens loss with a resilient domination of Tampa Bay, and that with a 6-2 team coming in that is steadily improving and usually doesn't beat itself, this game is pretty much a toss-up, and if I had to pick I'm taking the team on the rise with something to prove, as opposed to the hung-over team that is still looking for itself after eight weeks of listless, mediocre play.

I have no problem with anyone taking the Steelers, with or without the points, this week. I think the reflexive, across-the-board choice speaks much more about the laziness of the observers and their unconscious defense of their previous positions no matter how incorrect in the face of new evidence. Very little about this Steelerism is about their opponent, it's all about what they think they're supposed to say about the Steelers. They'd say the same thing even if they were playing the Pats or Colts this week.

THANK YOU, SaintJ!!!

 

[Sackhappysaint]

I know this is being discussed in a bunch of threads, but I'm not going to cross-post and I can't decide which thread to post in, so here's a new thread.

Check this out and tell me why it's so objectionable that people in the media DARE to pick Pitt over NO.

Offensive plays: Pitt 522, NO 518
Yards/play: Pitt 5.6, NO 5.6
Yards/game: Pitt: 364, NO 361
First downs/gm: Pitt 20.5, NO 18.9
3rd down %: Pitt 42.2, NO 42.6
Penalties: Pitt 35/316, NO 47/342
TOP: Pitt 31:14, NO 30:54
Points/game: Pitt 22.1, NO 24.8

Wow. It's almost identical. It's far closer than I would have figured even when you separate rushing vs. passing.

Defensive plays: Pitt 486, NO 485
Yards/play: Pitt 4.7, NO 4.9
Yards/game: Pitt: 284, NO 296
First downs/gm: Pitt 16.1, NO 17.0
3rd down %: Pitt 36.6, NO 38.3
Penalties: Pitt 48/399, NO 50/384
TOP: Pitt 28:46, NO 29.06
Points/game: Pitt 22.0, NO 19.9

Again almost identical.

Pittsburgh and the Saints are statistically pretty much the same team.

Pitt & NO have played one common opponent so far: Atlanta. The Saints beat Atlanta on "homecoming" night and Pitt lost to Atlanta 41-38 in a game almost everyone on the SSF thought Pitt "should have" won. That's the lone common opponent. But aside from Atlanta....

Pittsburgh's 4 toughest opponents have been Cincy, Denver, at JAX, and at San Diego (all losses)

NO's 4 toughest opponents have been Baltimore, Philly, at Carolina and who? One of the Tampa games, I guess?

So it seems pretty clear to me that the most significant difference by far separating NO and Pitt record-wise is simply schedule strength. Statistically, the two teams are all-but-identical. Pittsburgh is 2-6 and the Saints are 6-2 based pretty much only on who they've had to play.

The following has been said in those other threads, but I'll repeat the points in light of the stats above....

What's the line, like 5? 5.5? And I'm well aware of the fact that the line is irrelevant, but doesn't the line usually give them home team 3? And isn't anything less than 3 pretty much a pick 'em? So take away the 3 just by virtue of Pitt being at home and it's a pick 'em.

And as for the heads on tee vee, let's see, Pittsburgh is still the defending Super Bowl champs, who are at home and are desperate to salvage their season. Vs. a team that was 3-13 last year, are on the road and could be argued to have shown some complacency 2 weeks ago against an AFC team. If I weren't a Saints fan, I'd probably pick Pitt too.

No respeck!

How do you figure?

I guess you haven't watched Pitt play this year...

Big Ben vrs Drew Brees..There's your answer why the Saints should win.

 

[JackT.]

I think you're really off base here.
By comparison, should the Saints lose, I don't think it would sully the Saints reputation.

I disagree. If the Saints lose then I think that would sully the Saints reputation because the "experts" would say that the Saints can't beat a 2-6 team. Until we consistantly win games and consistantly beat "good" teams then we will be underdogs in games that we should "win". We watch our team week in and week out. Most of the national media doesn't. They are going by the history of our franchise against the history of the Steelers' franchise. Until we can go into a hostile enviroment and dominate consistantly we will be a pick em team. One week be favored by a field goal or be picked to lose. Also teams do have a history of curing their ailments against us. Respect is something that has to be earned not given to you. We are on the way to earning respect. Maybe we are there now, maybe not. At the end of the season we will see how this team has grown. Or faded. If the Steelers were 6-2 then this game would have different meanings. Rarely do I look at a teams' record and say we should win this game. I look at the matchups and make my decesion. Am I right? That would be the best way,in my mind, to look at games. We can win this game. Will we win??? Who knows. The Steelers can also win this game. They can dominate the running game. If they stuff the run down our throats and keep our offense on the sidelines then we may be in for a long sunday. It is about ball control and ball security. If we can run the ball and stop the run and hold on to the ball then we can and will win. If we let them run at will and we turn the ball over then we can lose.

 

[LSSpam]

I think you're really off base here.

Maybe the Steelers aren't as good as people think. But most folks agree a big part of their problems are the play of Roethlisberger (sp?), a QB that was playing great last year. He's a wild card--it's not like he's an Aaron Brooks, who has a long predictable history of question marks behind him. Everyone, including myself, thinks Ben will revert to his old form either sometime this season, or next season. It's a question of when. That will make them a formidable team immediately. Will this week be the week things come back together for him?

Roethlisberger actually has historically made poor decisions. Last season for example, the Super Bowl season, he threw interceptions at the rate of 1 every 25 attempts. In comparison Brees last season threw them at the rate of 1 every 35 attempts. A significant difference.

The reason Roethlisberger never acquired this reputation before is they simply didn't throw the ball a lot. He had only 250 attempts last season to Brees' 500 attempts. But in the Super Bowl if you remember he played pretty poorly.

This season they are relying on him more then ever before. He's throwing 30+ times a game for the first time in his career....and it shows. (he has almost as many attempts this season as he had all of last season). He seems to be playing worse then before, but I think a lot of that is attributable to the fact that he doesn't have the field position support (from his defense) or run game support he had in the past.

Honestly, Roethlisberger just makes poor decisions and he always has. It's just never mattered until now.

 

[kfran]

Roethlisberger actually has historically made poor decisions. Last season for example, the Super Bowl season, he threw interceptions at the rate of 1 every 25 attempts. In comparison Brees last season threw them at the rate of 1 every 35 attempts. A significant difference.

The reason Roethlisberger never acquired this reputation before is they simply didn't throw the ball a lot. He had only 250 attempts last season to Brees' 500 attempts. But in the Super Bowl if you remember he played pretty poorly.

This season they are relying on him more then ever before. He's throwing 30+ times a game for the first time in his career....and it shows. (he has almost as many attempts this season as he had all of last season). He seems to be playing worse then before, but I think a lot of that is attributable to the fact that he doesn't have the field position support (from his defense) or run game support he had in the past.

Honestly, Roethlisberger just makes poor decisions and he always has. It's just never mattered until now.

Thank you, LSSpam... Somebody's done their homework.

You don't go from SB champs to 2-6 the following year (with most of a very talented team still in place) without reasons. Big Ben is a major part of those reasons, as you stated. Yet, he's not the only reason.

Factor in, the recurring problems of Holmes in the return game, the inconsistent play of their O line, the inconsistency of Palaumo this year, as well as Porter, and you begin to understand why Pitt is 2-6.

More importantly, if they don't fix it by Sunday (I doubt they can), they'll be 2-7.

 

[happy saint]

happy stat

Chokes Saints - 2 games
steelers - 4 games

Saints 27
Steelers 7

 

[marccooper]

Also consider that the Steelers are 2-6. If they go 6-2 the rest of the way, they finish 8-8. Even at 9-7 the playoff are only 50/50. Their starting QB is clearly not that healthy and they lack a power running game. Now one linebacker has guaranteed a victory. But his approach to a probable lost cause is not necessarily the approach of the rest of the 53 man roster, nor does it necessarily help their approach. Pittsburgh is in a very bad situation psychologically, so I think that is another disadvantage. Other teams still take them seriously because they are superbowl champs, but they cannot as easily take themselves seriously because they cannot repeat. They could not beat the raiders after they came off a tough loss to atlanta. That shows their resilience right there. They cant make beating the Saints their holy grail just because the saints are 6-2. Maybe they could get up for a game against Indy or Chicago, but that is probably about it at this point. Anything is possible, but I would say the current mindset favors us. Pittsburgh cannot come out of this game feeling too much better about this season no matter what the result. At least a lousy team can feel better if it proves its players are ready to beat the best, but pittsburgh proved that last year, and cannot prove much more now. They would still be just 3-6. So the Saints have another edge and should be the clear favorite, although anything can happen in the NFL. One potential game changing factor is whether our club handed secondary can catch any of the potential interceptions that Roethslingsberger is likely to throw. If we caught potentially INTs like the Ravens, we would be positive in turnover ratio.

 

[kfran]

They cant make beating the Saints their holy grail just because the saints are 6-2.

They are grasping for answers, as evidenced by their own admission: Read the words of Cowher, Roethlisberger, Ward, & Parker.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/F/FBN_STEELERS_PARKERS_TALK?SITE=PAGRE&SECTION=FOOTBALL


That is a team on the ropes, SB champs or not.

Add in a rookie return specialist who has fumbled in 3 of 8 games, an inconsistent O line, a young qb making very poor decisions under pressure, and a secondary that has shown it can be beaten, and you have a team waiting to implode with one more loss.

It's clear that Porter's "guarantee" (prayer) is more an attempt to motivate himself and his team mates, than it is a guarantee based on confidence.

If you're 4-4, 5-3, 6-2 etc., and you feel good about yourself and the direction you're heading, there's a much better chance that you can cash the check your mouth wrote.

I seriously doubt Porter will be able to do that Sunday.

I love our matchup with Grant, Smith, & Co. against their O line and keeping pressure on Big Ben all day - that's been his problem.

I like our matchup with Drew and our receivers against their DB's... And I like our matchup with our special teams vs. theirs.

Don't get me wrong - I respect Pitt, but fear them? NO WAY.

Mark my words: If we're up by 2 TDs or more in the 3rd quater, watch an implosion.

Sean won't let our team go into Pitt over confident - You can make book on that. But, he won't let them go in intimidated either.

Pitt is beatable right now by a good team - very beatable. The question is, do you think your Saints are good enough to do it?

 

[mRex]

Maybe they played tougher competion because they lost all those games if they was 6-2 all the other teams they played wouldent be so tough?
Not sure I am getting my point across but if we lost all our games to our opponents, we could look at there strength of schudule for a excuse also.

schedule strength is overrated!

 

[pete]

Turnover margin hasn't affected the fact that Pitt scores a whopping 1 FG less than the Saints per game and gives up a whopping 2 points more. Against tougher competition.

Turnovers schmurnovers. It's moot when it doesn't significantly affect other stats, primarily points scored and points scored against.

That's an awfully silly statement. Of course it significantly affects other stats. It is also an indicator of team focus and mental toughness.