Saints Draft Class Grades from NFL Experts (1 Viewer)

[dutar76]

When you draft at the end of the rounds and don't have a 2nd round pick, but you end up with three of the top 40 players on your board, and the positions they play happen to be your biggest position of needs (or future needs)... You won the draft.

Honestly, I read through the last 4 rounds of the draft and only saw a few names I recognized. The first pick wasn't a shock and I think we got value there. Baun and Trautman both had 2nd round grades on almost every site I visited pre-draft. Baun had a first round grade in some. And the vision for all 3 players is obvious.

Ruiz = Replacment and possible upgrade for McCoy at center allowing McCoy to become at least a future replacement and likely upgrade for Warford at RG.

Baun = Replacement and possible upgrade for Klein at SAM LB.

Trautman = Could be a replacement and possible upgrade for Josh Hill in the near future and/or future replacement for Cook. At the least, we come away from this draft having a viable 3rd TE that can block and catch instead of an UDFA project or street free agent filling that role.

And in the 7th round?
Stevens = Competition, replacment, and possible upgrade for Sean Payton's latest "Build-a-TE" project Dan Arnold.

 

[ELLIASJWILLIAMS]

FWIW, your opinion is more valuable to me than a blow-hard like Mel Kiper. Mel Kiper's opinions are like farts....maybe it will smell funny or maybe it wont, but once you hear that flatulating noise, who wants to stick around to find out?

I find you to be credible when it comes to Saints related matters EJW. I'd at least be willing to listen to your rationale.

lol, much appreciated. The article should be out tomorrow and will include more details (1400 words) but I did a quick 2min video you can check out below to accompany it and consolidate my thoughts.

 

[Saintaholik]

I am not a fan of draft grades generally, for many reasons. One, they grade on a curve. Everyone just about gets a C or better. It's like the underwater basket weaving class in college. Two, they go off what the player's perceived pre-draft ranking was, which is based sometimes on inaccurate or incomplete information. That's the only reason we got a good grade; we happened to take players that were "steals."

Then, there's this:

• Kyle T. Mosley: B (I would have given the Saints an A with the first 3 draft picks)

Really? He thinks the Saints hit a home run with their first and two third rounders, but a throwaway seventh round pick drops the draft a whole letter? Just because that guy didn't get the pre-draft buzz? How ridiculous. They could have drafted me with their seventh round pick; if the other three picks were worthy of an A grade, they should still get an A grade, maybe an A- at the absolute worst.

I agree

A 7th round pick should never really factor in when your grading a teams draft unless it was someone who fell dramatically and has a chance to produce right away.

The Reason:

7th round picks are almost exclusively "project players". They are typically players that have the athletic ability but are raw, or players that aren't very athletic but have some technical upside.

You can look at all the 6th and 7th round successfull picks over the years and typically they are players that graded poorly in a specific area. Yet they were players who perfected what their strengths are and carved put a very good career

 

[ELLIASJWILLIAMS]

I agree

A 7th round pick should never really factor in when your grading a teams draft unless it was someone who fell dramatically and has a chance to produce right away.

The Reason:

7th round picks are almost exclusively "project players". They are typically players that have the athletic ability but are raw, or players that aren't very athletic but have some technical upside.

You can look at all the 6th and 7th round successfull picks over the years and typically they are players that graded poorly in a specific area. Yet they were players who perfected what their strengths are and carved put a very good career

In most cases it wouldn’t but the Saints borrowed from the 2021 class because they were scared other teams would have access to Stevens.

This means that their vision includes him being on the 53 man roster. Anything less than that could be considered a failure if you don’t feel he’s better than 37 other players when you drop from 90 to 53

Trying to sneak him onto the PS could give those same teams a shot at poaching him and is risky. Therefore the trade adds a bit more weight to the overall move.

Otherwise I wholeheartedly agree that expectations for a 7th rounder shouldn’t exist..except in this case there seems to be some from the team.

 

[sfidc3]

lol, much appreciated. The article should be out tomorrow and will include more details (1400 words) but I did a quick 2min video you can check out below to accompany it and consolidate my thoughts.

Very well done....I completely agree on the risk/bust aspect of Baun and Trautman....but I also trust the Saints personnel department, I think (barring injury) they will both be contributors as early as this season.

I also think those individual grades (if weighted somewhat) would result in a B or even a B+....I would put almost no value on a 7th round draft pick because they are a long shot to make the roster. I completely understand criticizing them for trading a 6th round pick to get Stevens but I believe since SP has been here there has never been a 6th round pick that made the roster. To me, this is a low risk/low return proposition that shouldn't have much bearing on the draft grade....

In the end, the true grade will come in a few years....Cheers

 

[ELLIASJWILLIAMS]

Touch

Very well done....I completely agree on the risk/bust aspect of Baun and Trautman....but I also trust the Saints personnel department, I think (barring injury) they will both be contributors as early as this season.

I also think those individual grades (if weighted somewhat) would result in a B or even a B+....I would put almost no value on a 7th round draft pick because they are a long shot to make the roster. I completely understand criticizing them for trading a 6th round pick to get Stevens but I believe since SP has been here there has never been a 6th round pick that made the roster. To me, this is a low risk/low return proposition that shouldn't have much bearing on the draft grade....

In the end, the true grade will come in a few years....Cheers

touche, Cheers

 

[SquatchySaint]

Shouldn't the word Experts...be in.....

 

[Hedon James]

lol, much appreciated. The article should be out tomorrow and will include more details (1400 words) but I did a quick 2min video you can check out below to accompany it and consolidate my thoughts.

Nicely done, and it's hard to argue your points, as you presented them.

But if I can play contrarian, I think you're being a little hard on Braun & Trautman picks. And maybe even Stevens. I agree that Braun may be boom or bust, due to injury concerns, but isn't that the case with numerous draft picks every year? Tua Tagoivaloa has major injury concerns and has the same boom/bust potential. But he's widely acknowledged as a great pick at #6. I'll readily concede Tua is a better QB prospect than Braun is a LB prospect, but Tua was a 1st rounded....#6 overall, while Braun was a late 1st that we picked up in the 3rd. Maybe Grant Delpit is a better comparison, but my point still applies, IMO.

I agree with your points about Trautman too. But I'd also add that Saints have a pretty good eye for small school prospects with big league talent. Marques Colston from Hofstra; Jahri Evans from Bloomsburg; Terron Armstead from Arkansas-Pine Bluff; Marcus Davenport from UTSA; Deonta Harris from Assumption; and perhaps some others I can't think of right now. And now Adam Trautman from Dayton. Despite that, he was a projected 2nd round talent, obtained in the 3rd. If anyone can spot big league talent in a small college, and translate it to NFL level, the Saints staff can.

Your points about Stevens are well taken. 7th rounders aren't usually EXPECTED to make the team, but always a nice surprise when they are. From that perspective, a potential replacement for TH7s joker role obtained in the 7th round could end up being our best pick. Operative phrase "could be." But if it doesn't work out, we burned a future draft pick for the privilege of moving UP into the 7th round for a player we cut. We probably could've stood pat for that outcome.

I don't differ greatly from your assessment. In my opinion a B or B+. I just think your outlook is too pessimistic for a class who hasn't even seen the field yet, but looks fantastic on paper. But I don't want to fuss too much, as you might be right. And I'm certain we agree that we won't KNOW for 2-3 more seasons. If the Saints hit all 4 picks, we'll all be grading this draft an A+. Big IF...

Thanks for sharing your insights though! Much appreciation!

 

[ELLIASJWILLIAMS]

Nicely done, and it's hard to argue your points, as you presented them.

But if I can play contrarian, I think you're being a little hard on Braun & Trautman picks. And maybe even Stevens. I agree that Braun may be boom or bust, due to injury concerns, but isn't that the case with numerous draft picks every year? Tua Tagoivaloa has major injury concerns and has the same boom/bust potential. But he's widely acknowledged as a great pick at #6. I'll readily concede Tua is a better QB prospect than Braun is a LB prospect, but Tua was a 1st rounded....#6 overall, while Braun was a late 1st that we picked up in the 3rd. Maybe Grant Delpit is a better comparison, but my point still applies, IMO.

I agree with your points about Trautman too. But I'd also add that Saints have a pretty good eye for small school prospects with big league talent. Marques Colston from Hofstra; Jahri Evans from Bloomsburg; Terron Armstead from Arkansas-Pine Bluff; Marcus Davenport from UTSA; Deonta Harris from Assumption; and perhaps some others I can't think of right now. And now Adam Trautman from Dayton. Despite that, he was a projected 2nd round talent, obtained in the 3rd. If anyone can spot big league talent in a small college, and translate it to NFL level, the Saints staff can.

Your points about Stevens are well taken. 7th rounders aren't usually EXPECTED to make the team, but always a nice surprise when they are. From that perspective, a potential replacement for TH7s joker role obtained in the 7th round could end up being our best pick. Operative phrase "could be." But if it doesn't work out, we burned a future draft pick for the privilege of moving UP into the 7th round for a player we cut. We probably could've stood pat for that outcome.

I don't differ greatly from your assessment. In my opinion a B or B+. I just think your outlook is too pessimistic for a class who hasn't even seen the field yet, but looks fantastic on paper. But I don't want to fuss too much, as you might be right. And I'm certain we agree that we won't KNOW for 2-3 more seasons. If the Saints hit all 4 picks, we'll all be grading this draft an A+. Big IF...

Thanks for sharing your insights though! Much appreciation!

I can be pessimistic and I toyed with a Trautman being a B but I attempted to stay straight forward on the scale. A=4 , B=3, C=2, D=1. That kept me from doing things like A- or B+ etc. Final grade was a 2.5 so all things considered I could have rounded up and made it a 3. Perhaps I should have but appreciate the feedback. I’m definitely not as down on the class as the C+ appears.

 

[Mississippi Saints Fan]

Too soon to tell about this draft as a whole. I don’t think it was our best one, but maybe at least 2 or 3 of the guys will turn into great players. At the end of the day, we had 4 selections, which we used, what 7 or 8 total picks to obtain? We targeted needs, and got the players we wanted by all means. If it works out, great. I do like the choices, but I’m still a little surprised how we approached this year. Not hating on it, just not sure it was the best in recent memory. Time will tell.

 

[Hedon James]

I can be pessimistic and I toyed with a Trautman being a B but I attempted to stay straight forward on the scale. A=4 , B=3, C=2, D=1. That kept me from doing things like A- or B+ etc. Final grade was a 2.5 so all things considered I could have rounded up and made it a 3. Perhaps I should have but appreciate the feedback. I’m definitely not as down on the class as the C+ appears.

No worries. My OPINION is that your opinion didn't provide equal consideration to the upside...nothing more. I still look forward to your thoughts and analyses on here, and I'm certain I'm not the only one! It's all good.

I like the picks we made, but truth be told, I'd rather we made our picks where they fell, or traded back for more. I understand the Saints logic of "quality versus quantity", especially on a "loaded" roster with few holes. But since Ireland got here, the Saints have gone from average to "very good" at drafting. If we're to "play to our strengths" and be in the "best position to succeed", that involves making MORE draft picks, not fewer. And CSP espouses competition for improvement; what better competition than to bring in a full contingent of draft picks and UDFAs every year to compete for roster positions.

If those picks don't make the roster, at least they competed with the incumbents and served notice not to get complacent. Maybe they'll even help the incumbent veterans to raise their game, due to the increase in competition. They're also a subtle reminder at contract time that younger & cheaper options are readily available. Pay those who have earned it, but elite pay for elite play; not because we're thin at the position.

I can't think of a single reason not to draft as many players as possible, every year. Because our roster is already "stacked"? Not for long if we don't keep priming the pipeline. Because they won't start? See argument above regarding competition for incumbent vets. The worst that can happen is that none of the picks make the team. Guess what, none of the picks we didn't make will be on the team either. Someone else made those picks, and maybe they'll make that roster or maybe they'll be cut from that team too; but the Saints didn't have an opportunity to coach them up and see who blossoms. And if we have the superior coaching that we think we do, isn't that what superior coaches do?!

No matter how I look at this, I keep coming to the same conclusion that as long as we draft this well, and as long as we coach this well, we should be drafting as many picks as possible, every year, not trading them away. JMO...

 

[Igordão]

No worries. My OPINION is that your opinion didn't provide equal consideration to the upside...nothing more. I still look forward to your thoughts and analyses on here, and I'm certain I'm not the only one! It's all good.

I like the picks we made, but truth be told, I'd rather we made our picks where they fell, or traded back for more. I understand the Saints logic of "quality versus quantity", especially on a "loaded" roster with few holes. But since Ireland got here, the Saints have gone from average to "very good" at drafting. If we're to "play to our strengths" and be in the "best position to succeed", that involves making MORE draft picks, not fewer. And CSP espouses competition for improvement; what better competition than to bring in a full contingent of draft picks and UDFAs every year to compete for roster positions.

If those picks don't make the roster, at least they competed with the incumbents and served notice not to get complacent. Maybe they'll even help the incumbent veterans to raise their game, due to the increase in competition. They're also a subtle reminder at contract time that younger & cheaper options are readily available. Pay those who have earned it, but elite pay for elite play; not because we're thin at the position.

I can't think of a single reason not to draft as many players as possible, every year. Because our roster is already "stacked"? Not for long if we don't keep priming the pipeline. Because they won't start? See argument above regarding competition for incumbent vets. The worst that can happen is that none of the picks make the team. Guess what, none of the picks we didn't make will be on the team either. Someone else made those picks, and maybe they'll make that roster or maybe they'll be cut from that team too; but the Saints didn't have an opportunity to coach them up and see who blossoms. And if we have the superior coaching that we think we do, isn't that what superior coaches do?!

No matter how I look at this, I keep coming to the same conclusion that as long as we draft this well, and as long as we coach this well, we should be drafting as many picks as possible, every year, not trading them away. JMO...

Maybe the reason the saints draft well is because they trade picks away to get who they want.

 

[Hedon James]

Maybe the reason the saints draft well is because they trade picks away to get who they want.

I see what you did there. Touche!

 

[sammymvpknight]

I am not a fan of draft grades generally, for many reasons. One, they grade on a curve. Everyone just about gets a C or better. It's like the underwater basket weaving class in college. Two, they go off what the player's perceived pre-draft ranking was, which is based sometimes on inaccurate or incomplete information. That's the only reason we got a good grade; we happened to take players that were "steals."

Then, there's this:

• Kyle T. Mosley: B (I would have given the Saints an A with the first 3 draft picks)

Really? He thinks the Saints hit a home run with their first and two third rounders, but a throwaway seventh round pick drops the draft a whole letter? Just because that guy didn't get the pre-draft buzz? How ridiculous. They could have drafted me with their seventh round pick; if the other three picks were worthy of an A grade, they should still get an A grade, maybe an A- at the absolute worst.

I can say this much...when a draft pick is immediately perceived as bad or a reach...it’s usually true. I can look back at every Saints draft pick over the past 15 years and say with pretty good confidence whether or not they’d either be a contributor or a bust. I think the one guy I was wrong on was Martez Wilson. But honestly, I think that he could have had a different career path if he was used better and had better coaching.

The good thing is that outside Stevens, all of the players this year should be contributors.

 

[ELLIASJWILLIAMS]

Now that it’s coming out Payton traded up for Stevens to spite the Panthers it highlights my point that he’s a 53man or bust project. Imagine cutting someone he’s not better than just to make him fit as 4-core ST’s player.

Riskyyyy but alas, here’s the article if anyone wants to read

Snap Judgement: Grading the Saints 2020 NFL Draft

Saints always have a vision for the players they draft and this year is no different, just not as clear.

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