Soooo when is it NOT Fire Season??? Franklin fire in Malibu CA (15 Viewers)

[efil4stnias]

The Pallisades fire keeps moving to the north toward Tarzana - if it makes it over that ridge, it will enter a very high value area (including Calabasas) and then into the highly developed San Fernando Valley.

It's now moving down the hill side toward Encino.

 

[efil4stnias]

Pretty good chopper video and explanation about Palisades fire approaching Encino and Tarzana. There is a "fire road" running perpendicular to fire where firefighters have set up all along to stop the fire.

I'm guessing if fire breaches this road, that it becomes a real problem for those cities.

 

[superchuck500]

The 3D CalFire map seems to show progress made to the N approaching Tarzana but the east side toward Brentwood still looks bad.

 

[efil4stnias]

The 3D CalFire map seems to show progress made to the N approaching Tarzana but the east side toward Brentwood still looks bad.

Just off phone w my friend who lives out there. Just left his bosses house in Brentwood Heights ( homes just below The Getty ) said it's bad. Said the winds are slated to pick up tonite thru Monday and that Brentwood is most likely gonna catch heck.

Said they have mobilized mass amounts of trucks and fireman all through Brentwood and Bel Air. They are really worried about it crossing 405 into Bel Air. He said that is where the $50,000,000 homes are. Old money.

He totally thinks his boss will lose his home if the fire breaks thru the line set up. And if the Santa ana winds pick up like scheduled, said no way they can stop it.

It's an absolute disaster all around Palisades and Altedena.

 

[Goatman Saint]

Just off phone w my friend who lives out there. Just left his bosses house in Brentwood Heights ( homes just below The Getty ) said it's bad. Said the winds are slated to pick up tonite thru Monday and that Brentwood is most likely gonna catch heck.

Said they have mobilized mass amounts of trucks and fireman all through Brentwood and Bel Air. They are really worried about it crossing 405 into Bel Air. He said that is where the $50,000,000 homes are. Old money.

He totally thinks his boss will lose his home if the fire breaks thru the line set up. And if the Santa ana winds pick up like scheduled, said no way they can stop it.

It's an absolute disaster all around Palisades and Altedena.

Yeah. Palisades I don’t know as well. But my sister in law who owned property and grew up in Altadena is really impacted on an emotional level. The house she grew up in, schools she attended, friends of the family have lost everything. I can’t imagine it

 

[SamAndreas]

it was already over. Most folks are with the State Plan- ( exactly like LA Fair Plan here for wind coverage )

All the major carriers- SF, Allstate, USAA, Travelers, GEICO, Nationwide etc had begun "depopulating" their books in California in 2024. Im sure some were renewed prior to announced exit, so those will expire in 2025.

But yes- i could see where State Plan will pick up the "wildfire/fire risk" and a second policy for all other coverage.

But as i think about, i dont know that they can carve out the fire part between fire and wildfire. So that may present a problem.

I think @SamAndreas posted not long ago about having to get fire thru CA State Plan.

And i imagine that State Plan is similar to LA Fair Plan which is funded by premiums and covered by reinsurance.

the problem comes in when its time to re-up the reinsurance- Since CA Fair plan is mainly for fire coverage ( since no one else will do ), and wildfires are becoming a year-round issue, and with devastating effects, what reinsurer wants to sell coverage that they are almost sure will get losses? How do you put a cost on an almost certain claim scenario? Want $50,000,000 coverage? ok premium is $40,000,000 lol.

Which means the CA Fair Plan HAS to adjust is rating structure.

And there is also the pitfall of VALUE.

Example- i have a client- has $5.5mm bldg. The nominal rate for wind only is around .0090- so should be around $45,000 premium.

However, Fair plan cannot take on the full $5,5mm value- so that building has to go thru the reinsurer. Now the rate jumps to .020 because reinsurer isnt keen on $5,500,000 bldg= $110,000 premium.

So imagine ALL those $10-30mm mansions in the hills surrounding LA. Premiums would be in the $100s of 1000s for them.

its going to be an absolute mess in the coming months out there.

And all that trickles down to the 1300 sq ft $400,000 home in Altedena too. They dont have to deal with the reinsurance issue, but their base rate is going to jump because CA Fair Plan will HAVE to raise it to have sufficient capital for the next wildfire to pay claims.

And just like here with wind, what mortgage company will allow mortgagor to obtain a homeowner policy without fire coverage? ?

none.

I have no insurance.

And you know what? When I hear what neighbors have to pay for that state very high risk plan I realize that I can stand an occasional loss of a structure. I have two building which are houses, and one more which could be converted into a small house without a whole lot of work. Those places are on different parcels of land some miles apart.

So I'm not likely to wind up homeless.

 

[Mamba]

Just drove up the 5 from Burbank to Santa Clarita and was STUNNED to see ZERO glow from the Palisades fire. It’s still burning strong elsewhere, of course. But firefighters must’ve made some serious progress over the last few hours to keep it out of the valley. Heroic effort.

 

[CapitalCitySaint]

Just drove up the 5 from Burbank to Santa Clarita and was STUNNED to see ZERO glow from the Palisades fire. It’s still burning strong elsewhere, of course. But firefighters must’ve made some serious progress over the last few hours to keep it out of the valley. Heroic effort.

The dashboard is showing that it’s only 11% contained. Hopefully they continue to make good progress overnight.

I just checked - it’s 68% humidity here in SD after a very dry day. Humidity in LA is 35%. Wind gusts are pretty low there at 8% so at least there’s that.

 

[Mamba]

The dashboard is showing that it’s only 11% contained. Hopefully they continue to make good progress overnight.

I just checked - it’s 68% humidity here in SD after a very dry day. Humidity in LA is 35%. Wind gusts are pretty low there at 8% so at least there’s that.

Yeah, it’s still raging, but the big win is that it seems they’ve successfully steered it away from the San Fernando Valley, which is absolutely paramount. And the wind (at least so far) has not picked up like some were forecasting.

 

[Taurus]

Well, considering that Soviets asked us to bomb Dresden and that U.S. and British B52 bombers had essentially turned most other German cities--Cologne, Hamburg, Essen, Dusseldorf, Frankfurt, most of Berlin destroyed and bombed-out almost 2 years before WWII ended and large areas of German infrastructure, buildings, schools, hospitals remained damaged well unto the 1960's (their are still areas in eastern Germany that haven't and never will recover to pre-WWII industrial, economic and population demographics as entire factories, businesses and minerals were extracted and taken back to USSR for reparation payments in very early GDR), and that Dresden bombing was man-made, this Pacific Palisades wildfires can only be fought and controlled and hopefully eliminate this threat.

B-52's?

They're old, but not WWII old.

 

[CapitalCitySaint]

Palisades is reporting in this morning still at 11% contained but the acreage has shot up to 23,707. Humidity and winds are still low.

Let’s please not derail this thread with talk about the potential for war & America’s military equipment. This is an ongoing disaster and some of us are coming here to share info pertaining to it.

 

[Mamba]

Let’s please not derail this thread with talk about the potential for war & America’s military equipment. This is an ongoing disaster and some of us are coming here to share info pertaining to it.

Agreed. I've found that it helps to put the serial culprit on ignore

 

[HoustonGold]

Is someone implying LA got bombed? The rumors that start during an emergency is pretty crazy. I also read EV’s may have started the fire.

 

[efil4stnias]

Is someone implying LA got bombed? The rumors that start during an emergency is pretty crazy. I also read EV’s may have started the fire.

no and no.

 

[CapitalCitySaint]

I have wondered, with a fire as large as the Palisades fire, how do the experts trace it back & identify root cause?