Opinion The chance to get a top tier HC has come and gone (3 Viewers)

[IceHot]

There have unquestionably been many mistakes made, but the drafting woes go back to the CSP era.

I dont actually see that.

First I would say its nigh impossible to grade the last 3 drafts not really enough data yet...even Jordan Jackson was on a roster in 2024.

But we can grade his drafts from 2006 to 2021. I havent done all the math but when recently perusing the quality of the draft classes over recent years I noticed something. I was in profootball reference and you can pull up a Draft and sort it by Weighted Career Avg. This isnt the best metric but it does give you an idea of how a career has shaped up so far. Its a continuously aggregating number so active players will only get bigger numbers as time goes on.

I think its a reasonable way of looking at a draft class as they arent all the same. I first noticed the phenomena when looking at the 1970 Draft Class which has only 2 HoFers. The Saints selected a WR that was soon traded to Houston with the 10th pick. But the class was fairly shallow and the WR is actually 9th in the draft class when sorting by the above described metric.

But here is the funny thing I noticed. In almost every draft class from Loomis he has some player selected that sorts above or about where his first pick was. In many drafts his best pick sorts way above where he made his first selection at. In some drafts such as 2017 he absolutely crushes the draft. Just having perused the data I would speculate that on the whole his drafted average for his best 3 picks from each draft class is WAY WAY above his selection position for those same 3 picks.

Yeah he has some bad draft classes but i think its silly to say he has been bad at drafting (well at least in comparison to reasonable expectations).

If you want we go draft class to draft class and see if my hasty observation is accurate? What draft class do you want to start with?

 

[Dean in L.A.]

I couldn’t disagree more that the top guys are gone. For my money it’s Mccarthy and Kingsbury as the top 2 guys. We need a coach with experience especially at QB. Loomis is not a personnel guy. McCarthy and Kingsbury can help reshape the roster. I don’t think either one will be a long-term, but we need a bridge coach who’s familiar with personnel who can help lead us out of this terrible situation and finding talent and building a team for the next head coach three or four years from now.

Of course, the best case would be if we didn’t hire a coach at all and lost every game so we can draft Arch Manning

 

[SigFreudianSlip]

Vrabel is another guy that simply cut everyone off once he got an offer from the team he primarily played for. That is virtually always going to happen.

That is fate, destiny, all lining up and the culmination of a player turned coach’s dream scenario. Not you necessarily, but not too many people are fully grasping that. You are essentially angering the football gods by turning down an offer in that scenario.

Let me ask you - is Vrabel top tier over McCarthy? If so, why?

I get that. I’m also not sure who will end up being a great hire and who won’t, I’m just a fan, like everyone else here.


I think Vrabel will do well in New England. I’m not sure he’s over McCarthy. Mike has a good track record, on par with Sean’s. Mike was my first choice the moment he became available, for better or worse.

 

[SigFreudianSlip]

I couldn’t disagree more that the top guys are gone. For my money it’s Mccarthy and Kingsbury as the top 2 guys. We need a coach with experience especially at QB. Loomis is not a personnel guy. McCarthy and Kingsbury can help reshape the roster. I don’t think either one will be a long-term, but we need a bridge coach who’s familiar with personnel who can help lead us out of this terrible situation and finding talent and building a team for the next head coach three or four years from now.

Of course, the best case would be if we didn’t hire a coach at all and lost every game so we can draft Arch Manning

I like Kliff too but am leery because Daniels would make almost anyone look like a genius. He just had literally the best rookie season in the history of the league, QB wise. He’s generational. We don’t have that.

Totally agree on Mike.

 

[Snakehead]

I am learning more and more each day just how not fun Saints social media and interacting with members of the fanbase is when the Saints are bad.

So negative about EVERYTHING.

Agreed. So much negativity.

 

[SigFreudianSlip]

I am learning more and more each day just how not fun Saints social media and interacting with members of the fanbase is when the Saints are bad.

So negative about EVERYTHING.

I loathe the sunshine pumpers as you do the negative Nancies.

How long have you been a fan? The team has been so much worse and it’s all gravy to me since I got to see us win it all. All lagniappe now. I’d be lumped into the negative category I’m sure, I see it as realist tho.

The team may suck but my life is GOOD and I’m blessed and beyond thankful lol. So I’m not negative about everything. (I know you didn’t direct it at me)

It’s all also just entertainment to me, I keep it in that box.

I’ve loved em for 46 years and I’ll love em till I die even if they never win another game. Also beyond thankful for Sean and Drew and those 15 or so years.

 

[IceHot]

Look, the job is one of only thirty two in the world, for that reason it’s still a good one imo. Now, having said that it is at the bottom of those thirty two, and folks denying that just can’t take those black and gold glasses off. Nothing wrong with that imo. Fan how ya want.

Perhaps but coaches make decisions about their career based on more things than just the current state of the football organization and the money that comes with the position.

Coaches are still people and people based decision making is always going to play a role. Most any coach may feel better about one job or another, but ultimately they will believe if not restricted that they can turn things around on the football field.

But what of the people decisions, what family connections do I have to the area? How are the schools? What does the community look like for my spouse and family? Can my family pursue their hobbies? Are we going to be comfortable living there? New Orleans has plenty going for it, particularly for the right candidate.

 

[St. Geezy]

I would say Ben Johnson is the only coach of major consequence, on paper, that we have lost out on. And we all knew going into this cycle that he was a very unique case of a guy that actively chose to be extremely picky and go to the absolute perfect spot, even skipping last year’s cycle in demonstrating that.

Glenn and Vrabel both went to their de facto alma maters.

That’s it…nothing else has happened.

Why are we panicking and creating a narrative that no one good wants to be here based on these mere events???

 

[Rexman100]

I don't think we were even going to get one of the most sought after head coaches when Payton left. At that point we had no QB and no real options to get a long term QB. As much as Loomis though that team had a shot, it didn't and others probably knew it didn't. But at the time we all wanted to believe we were just a QB away. The rebuild should have started then, but it didn't. So, here we are.

And we aren't going to get guys like Ben Johnson now because we still don't have a long term answer at QB. But we can still get a good HC. Whether it's McCarthy who is a worst a good HC or we swing for the fences with a guy like Brady hoping he's a great head coach, we have a shot. Doesn't mean it's going to happen and we aren't in a position to get the hot names. But, sometimes that works out.

And the key will be drafting better. We have basically the same scouting staff and scouting people that we had when we drafted better with SP. That tells me that the issue was giving DA the players he wanted. So what we really need is a HC that is better at identifying talent in addition to coaching. But, I don't know who that is. Hopefully we find him.

Some football teams need a wax job and a polish. Other teams need dent repair, bondo, and a paint job..before a wax job. Chicago just needed the polish the Saints need bondo. I’d rather hire an experienced mechanic to do the body and the paint.

 

[SigFreudianSlip]

Perhaps but coaches make decisions about their career based on more things than just the current state of the football organization and the money that comes with the position.

Coaches are still people and people based decision making is always going to play a role. Most any coach may feel better about one job or another, but ultimately they will believe if not restricted that they can turn things around on the football field.

But what of the people decisions, what family connections do I have to the area? How are the schools? What does the community look like for my spouse and family? Can my family pursue their hobbies? Are we going to be comfortable living there? New Orleans has plenty going for it, particularly for the right candidate.

Absolutely. My post wasn’t meant as a slight to the city, the team, or anything else. Just how I see it.

 

[St. Geezy]

I loathe the sunshine pumpers as you do the negative Nancies.

How long have you been a fan? The team has been so much worse and it’s all gravy to me since I got to see us win it all. All lagniappe now. I’d be lumped into the negative category I’m sure, I see it as realist tho.

The team may suck but my life is GOOD and I’m blessed and beyond thankful lol. So I’m not negative about everything. (I know you didn’t direct it at me)

It’s all also just entertainment to me, I keep it in that box.

I’ve loved em for 46 years and I’ll love em till I die even if they never win another game. Also beyond thankful for Sean and Drew and those 15 or so years.

I am 45, been a fan and very close observer of the NFL and the Saints since first grade.

I am not a sunshine pumper; I just fail to subscribe to the mob mentality that the organization suddenly can do no right and that the sky is constantly falling with every single thing that doesn’t go my way.

Something I have learned over the years is that cycles exist in this game and a lot of luck is involved in this game. The system is literally designed for these lulls to occur. When they do, it isn’t always cause for panic and wanting everyone fired and thinking suddenly no one knows what they’re doing.

 

[SigFreudianSlip]

I would say Ben Johnson is the only coach of major consequence, on paper, that we have lost out on. And we all knew going into this cycle that he was a very unique case of a guy that actively chose to be extremely picky and go to the absolute perfect spot, even skipping last year’s cycle in demonstrating that.

Glenn and Vrabel both went to their de facto alma maters.

That’s it…nothing else has happened.

Why are we panicking and creating a narrative that no one good wants to be here based on these mere events???

All I’d ask is who’s panicking? Who’s upset? I couldn’t be less concerned that the job may not be viewed as the best opening lol. Truly. It’s just a sports forum about the Saints. To talk about em? That’s all.

 

[Noble Saint]

We are lucky if we get Mike McCarthy as our coach. Not sure that’s the response you were hoping for. Top Tier? Guess I don’t know what that means if you think top tier coaches are available.

 

[SigFreudianSlip]

I am 45, been a fan and very close observer of the NFL and the Saints since first grade.

I am not a sunshine pumper; I just fail to subscribe to the mob mentality that the organization suddenly can do no right and that the sky is constantly falling with every single thing that doesn’t go my way.

Something I have learned over the years is that cycles exist in this game and a lot of luck is involved in this game. The system is literally designed for these lulls to occur.

I wasn’t accusing you of being a pumper. Fan how ya want either way. I was saying that I’m the opposite of you when I read posts here. You don’t like what you perceive as negative and I laugh at what I perceive as black and gold shades water carrying sunshine pumpers. Is what it is.

I also will never go along with the mob, lol in anything.

I hope you and everyone else fans how they want to and gets enjoyment out of it. Otherwise what’s the point? lol

I’ll cheer for the team as I have for so long, win or lose. Only way I’ll stop is if the team leaves.

 

[SaintsMan209]

Hard disagree. You simply never know when a Sean Payton or Drew Brees might change everything. People were calling Sean P, Malcomn in the middle last time he signed her. Loomis will attract the right person.