The Investment Thread (6 Viewers)

[Saint_Ward]

You're right, but that may be in the form of another bill instead of doing it to this one.

Might. Just saw a headline about Cuomo complaining about it and the House still has to agree.

 

[bclemms]

Wild day. Sold my NUGT this afternoon and did a few day trades on SDOW but overall was getting my arse handed to me. Those day trades were just making me lose less. I stayed with the plan though and was really confident there would be a sell off into the bell. Was expecting a quick sell off 50% off of highs and was positioning myself to try to get back to black on the day. Then the last 10 minutes happened and pushed so far back down I ended up in the green. Wanted to buy back into NUGT just before the bell but volume and volatility was so high it crashed every account I have. Pretty sure this was just a big ole fashioned, bear market short squeeze and rally. I just don't see any gains being able to hold up for long with so much bad news coming.

Volatility may stay really high for a long time since nobody has any idea where earnings and unemployment will go and the market still being reactive.

 

[superchuck500]

Wild day. Sold my NUGT this afternoon and did a few day trades on SDOW but overall was getting my arse handed to me. Those day trades were just making me lose less. I stayed with the plan though and was really confident there would be a sell off into the bell. Was expecting a quick sell off 50% off of highs and was positioning myself to try to get back to black on the day. Then the last 10 minutes happened and pushed so far back down I ended up in the green. Wanted to buy back into NUGT just before the bell but volume and volatility was so high it crashed every account I have. Pretty sure this was just a big ole fashioned, bear market short squeeze and rally. I just don't see any gains being able to hold up for long with so much bad news coming.

Volatility may stay really high for a long time since nobody has any idea where earnings and unemployment will go and the market still being reactive.

Tonight I’m convinced this rally isn’t going to hold. All of this news of overwhelmed hospitals is a forward indicator that is being ignored. If you believe the hospital systems in New York and other major cities are going to start to break down (and there’s a lot of good reason to think that), I don’t see how we don’t head back down on sentiment alone. On the long term, the current levels might still be a decent place to buy in but right now the epidemiology still has the heavier hand IMO. Are we near the top of the bell or still way way down the upslope? Seems like the latter.

 

[bclemms]

Tonight I’m convinced this rally isn’t going to hold. All of this news of overwhelmed hospitals is a forward indicator that is being ignored. If you believe the hospital systems in New York and other major cities are going to start to break down (and there’s a lot of good reason to think that), I don’t see how we don’t head back down on sentiment alone. On the long term, the current levels might still be a decent place to buy in but right now the epidemiology still has the heavier hand IMO. Are we near the top of the bell or still way way down the upslope? Seems like the latter.

I'm jumping back on the TZA bandwagon this morning. Small caps had huge gains the last two days and think it's going to make a run back down. The volatility in Gold yesterday was insane. Usually a $10 swing in gold is a daily move but it was happening in single ticks yesterday, hundreds of times. The gold market is going to go up and down with markets. Basically if the stock market starts going up it favors inflationary pressures but on extreme multiples because of all the stimulus. If it goes down it's those that think the economy is in so much trouble that even with all the stimulus we will have deflationary pressures from lack of demand that we're headed for a great depression like period. Right now, the people that think we will have some sort of recovery are winning so when the market goes down, gold goes down but at a lessser rate. When the market goes up, gold goes up but at a faster rate. I've been using it as a hedge against inverse ETF's. If the market goes up, NUGT ETF is going up at about 3x the rate. If the market goes down NUGT goes down but at a slower rate than SDOW, SQQQ and TZA. If you are equally weighted in both you should make a small return but it carries some downside risk because gold could just decide to really crater if there is a really big run down. So I've been trying to stay 75% in inverse market ETFs and 25% in 3x gold ETFs. NUGT the last two days was up 70%, SDOW was down as much as 40%. The idea of playing these two against each other as a hedge just tells you how screwed up the markets are right now. I sold my NUGT yesterday at $9.85 and was hoping to get back in just before the bell but wasn't able to. Think I'll just leave it alone today and buy after another big run down.

I'm starting to think the market found a false bottom. Think we will retest lows and they will hold then have some sort of recovery in the summer that will be significant but it'll be fake once the market grasp that this is coming back in the fall. That's how I'm going to play this until I see the market become forward looking on the downside along with the upside. Right now it's only been forward looking for positive but reactionary for negative news.

I want to stop day trading and start investing but the volatility is giving day traders a lot of room to make money and it's really hard to invest if you have no clue on earnings. I've literally never seen anything like this, nothing even close to compare it to. I'm up so much that I'll either make a ton of money or break even since I'm playing with house money. Time will tell if I'm being greedy.

I'll say this again, pretty much every model and expert agree this thing is coming back in the fall. Dr. Birx even called it seasonal a couple days ago and somehow everyone seemed to ignore it. History also shows this far more likely than not. If we continue to take half measures, think about what our economy will look like if this runs through all of 2020, the spring of 2021 and then the fall and winter of 2021 before a vaccine is available. This $2 Trillion package will last a quarter at best. Do we issue 4-5 more of these and run our debt up to 100% of 2020 and 2021 GDP while the FED has a blank check? How will the dollar hold up? What will China's economy look like if they remain virus free over this time and repurpose factories to supply the world with ventilators and PPE supplies? If China manages to hold it's economy at current levels or even expand during this time while we go so far backwards it's a really bad thing for the USA in the long term. Lots to think about.

 

[efil4stnias]

I'm jumping back on the TZA bandwagon this morning. Small caps had huge gains the last two days and think it's going to make a run back down. The volatility in Gold yesterday was insane. Usually a $10 swing in gold is a daily move but it was happening in single ticks yesterday, hundreds of times. The gold market is going to go up and down with markets. Basically if the stock market starts going up it favors inflationary pressures but on extreme multiples because of all the stimulus. If it goes down it's those that think the economy is in so much trouble that even with all the stimulus we will have deflationary pressures from lack of demand that we're headed for a great depression like period. Right now, the people that think we will have some sort of recovery are winning so when the market goes down, gold goes down but at a lessser rate. When the market goes up, gold goes up but at a faster rate. I've been using it as a hedge against inverse ETF's. If the market goes up, NUGT ETF is going up at about 3x the rate. If the market goes down NUGT goes down but at a slower rate than SDOW, SQQQ and TZA. If you are equally weighted in both you should make a small return but it carries some downside risk because gold could just decide to really crater if there is a really big run down. So I've been trying to stay 75% in inverse market ETFs and 25% in 3x gold ETFs. NUGT the last two days was up 70%, SDOW was down as much as 40%. The idea of playing these two against each other as a hedge just tells you how screwed up the markets are right now. I sold my NUGT yesterday at $9.85 and was hoping to get back in just before the bell but wasn't able to. Think I'll just leave it alone today and buy after another big run down.

I'm starting to think the market found a false bottom. Think we will retest lows and they will hold then have some sort of recovery in the summer that will be significant but it'll be fake once the market grasp that this is coming back in the fall. That's how I'm going to play this until I see the market become forward looking on the downside along with the upside. Right now it's only been forward looking for positive but reactionary for negative news.

I want to stop day trading and start investing but the volatility is giving day traders a lot of room to make money and it's really hard to invest if you have no clue on earnings. I've literally never seen anything like this, nothing even close to compare it to. I'm up so much that I'll either make a ton of money or break even since I'm playing with house money. Time will tell if I'm being greedy.

I'll say this again, pretty much every model and expert agree this thing is coming back in the fall. Dr. Birx even called it seasonal a couple days ago and somehow everyone seemed to ignore it. History also shows this far more likely than not. If we continue to take half measures, think about what our economy will look like if this runs through all of 2020, the spring of 2021 and then the fall and winter of 2021 before a vaccine is available. This $2 Trillion package will last a quarter at best. Do we issue 4-5 more of these and run our debt up to 100% of 2020 and 2021 GDP while the FED has a blank check? How will the dollar hold up? What will China's economy look like if they remain virus free over this time and repurpose factories to supply the world with ventilators and PPE supplies? If China manages to hold it's economy at current levels or even expand during this time while we go so far backwards it's a really bad thing for the USA in the long term. Lots to think about.

I'm doing best I can to stay non political but you have to remember, Trump cares little to nothing about debt and he is looking to get re elected. Those two are part of a recipe for disaster regarding our future. The man wanted zero interest when the market was red hot.i can't imagine what he is screaming in meetings today.
The last part of your post is most concerning. China can effectively absorb good will and completely wash themselves of the outbreak bad will by becoming the world's most altruistic.
So many angles to worry about. I fear that domestic issues will be the forerunner and international will be back burner.
Geo politics could flip over next 12 to 18 months.
The one thing looming is if he is not re elected. I think that would certainly change perception and future Geo politics.

 

[bclemms]

Also, few days ago I was wanting to play the dollar. Few days ago it also looked like we were headed for a complete shutdown. Since it looks like this is less likely I'm avoiding the dollar long term, may even short it if it runs up to the 103 area again but likely just going to avoid the forex market all together now.

I do think the dollar holds up ok because it is being compared to other currencies doing the same thing we are with QE. I think the real impact is real inflation. For this reason, I'm going to try and scoop a high end truck for about 30% below sticker, finance it at 0% over a long term then let inflation do it's thing to basically give me the truck at half price while that money would have otherwise lost value. If housing gets hit hard then may even do the same with a house. Something to consider for those in the position to do so.

 

[bclemms]

I'm doing best I can to stay non political but you have to remember, Trump cares little to nothing about debt and he is looking to get re elected. Those two are part of a recipe for disaster regarding our future. The man wanted zero interest when the market was red hot.i can't imagine what he is screaming in meetings today.
The last part of your post is most concerning. China can effectively absorb good will and completely wash themselves of the outbreak bad will by becoming the world's most altruistic.
So many angles to worry about. I fear that domestic issues will be the forerunner and international will be back burner.
Geo politics could flip over next 12 to 18 months.
The one thing looming is if he is not re elected. I think that would certainly change perception and future Geo politics.

Yes, massive gamble of our future taking place with implications that could be bigger than any of us are even considering.

There is also the chance that we can open the economy back up heading into the summer and just deal with hotspots, then we come up with a treatment the cuts the need for critical care in half, cuts the death rate in half and cuts the length of hospitalizations in half. Could be that many more people got the virus than we ever imagined making it a lot less deadly than previously though and increasing the impacts of heard immunity heading into fall. We are also very likely to see huge surges in flu vaccines this year which could reduce the impact to the healthcare system. If those things all come together then it's going to create the perfect storm of a flash recession on the backside of a record bull run with low interest rates and liquidity like we've never seen before. It that were to happen then the economy and stock market would blow up and do it really fast. The biggest concern at that point would be rapid inflation and the fed would have to quickly raise rates. I just think that is pretty far fetched. Hopefully it does work out that way but math is sitting in the back of the classroom with statistics and they're both laughing at us.

 

[Rickboy]

Also, few days ago I was wanting to play the dollar. Few days ago it also looked like we were headed for a complete shutdown. Since it looks like this is less likely I'm avoiding the dollar long term, may even short it if it runs up to the 103 area again but likely just going to avoid the forex market all together now.

I do think the dollar holds up ok because it is being compared to other currencies doing the same thing we are with QE. I think the real impact is real inflation. For this reason, I'm going to try and scoop a high end truck for about 30% below sticker, finance it at 0% over a long term then let inflation do it's thing to basically give me the truck at half price while that money would have otherwise lost value. If housing gets hit hard then may even do the same with a house. Something to consider for those in the position to do so.

I’m regretting buying a Ford Raptor last December. I got a good deal at $6000 off sticker (these things still sell above MSRP) but I think I’d be able to get one for much less this summer.

 

[bclemms]

I’m regretting buying a Ford Raptor last December. I got a good deal at $6000 off sticker (these things still sell above MSRP) but I think I’d be able to get one for much less this summer.

I'm going to be looking hard around the end of April. Think the auto market will be dealing with catastrophic amounts of supply without any demand. Not sure Raptors will fall as much (given low production numbers) as something like a Chevy Duramax. Think the F-150, GM 1500 lines and other full size gas trucks will be really hit hard though since they are so highly produced.

I'm just not seeing people that just got laid off, sitting in lockdown running out to buy a new car right now. lol

The other option is looking at the high end of the used market. Lot of people going to be sitting around with vehicles they can't afford. Some that have mods that I want already done. Basically I'm looking for a truck with a big lift to cover flooding, be able to drive over down trees and get through any sort of mud. Been wanting one for a while but it needs to be at the right value since I go through vehicles so fast. Combine the discounts likely coming with low interest rates and low gas prices it makes an easy decision for me.

 

[TXSAINTFAN]

Getting real. After having to cut hours for the last couple of weeks due to business being stupid slow during spring break I laid off 7 employees Monday.

Yesterday closed the business until April 20th and laid off the rest of the staff.

After almost 14 years this seems a bit surreal.

Best to everyone.

We will all get through this thing!

 

[efil4stnias]

Getting real. After having to cut hours for the last couple of weeks due to business being stupid slow during spring break I laid off 7 employees Monday.

Yesterday closed the business until April 20th and laid off the rest of the staff.

After almost 14 years this seems a bit surreal.

Best to everyone.

We will all get through this thing!

Damn man. Sorry to hear this. Iirc you run a dog kennel/daycare?

We have good friends that own 2... One here and one in FL. One here... Shut down Monday... They had 2 baordings all of last week. Two. On a week where they have 30 to 40.

They are struggling too. It's all over. Outside construction, luxury type services are taking the brunt of this and very early on. If you can withstand that initial onslaught, you will be in a good position on the other side of this.

Wishing you all the best.!

Yes we will get thru this.

Crap didn't mean to "like" post. On phone and doesn't give me the sad face/laugh etc options.

Sad face.

 

[efil4stnias]

U employ number hit.. 3.4 mm

Market no reaction. So those were cooked in already. So that may be a bit positive for holding steady at least. But that also makes it edgy in that any bad news will quickly turn it red.

Whew gonna be some choppy waters next few weeks. Up days down days... Just hope up days out perform down days and 3 weeks from now we're on an upslope

Bclemms, told my buddy yesterday when this market turns it will happen In a matter of days. We could see 20 percent or more in just 2 or 3 days up. Buying on way down is not best option, but sure wanna be positioned for when that upswing starts.

 

[Saint_Ward]

I'm going to be looking hard around the end of April. Think the auto market will be dealing with catastrophic amounts of supply without any demand. Not sure Raptors will fall as much (given low production numbers) as something like a Chevy Duramax. Think the F-150, GM 1500 lines and other full size gas trucks will be really hit hard though since they are so highly produced.

I'm just not seeing people that just got laid off, sitting in lockdown running out to buy a new car right now. lol

The other option is looking at the high end of the used market. Lot of people going to be sitting around with vehicles they can't afford. Some that have mods that I want already done. Basically I'm looking for a truck with a big lift to cover flooding, be able to drive over down trees and get through any sort of mud. Been wanting one for a while but it needs to be at the right value since I go through vehicles so fast. Combine the discounts likely coming with low interest rates and low gas prices it makes an easy decision for me.

I"d love to be in the market for a car this summer, but my wife will be leaving her job to finish her last year of grad school, so adding a payment is a bad idea for us. Glad mine is paid off.

 

[Rickboy]

I'm going to be looking hard around the end of April. Think the auto market will be dealing with catastrophic amounts of supply without any demand. Not sure Raptors will fall as much (given low production numbers) as something like a Chevy Duramax. Think the F-150, GM 1500 lines and other full size gas trucks will be really hit hard though since they are so highly produced.

I'm just not seeing people that just got laid off, sitting in lockdown running out to buy a new car right now. lol

The other option is looking at the high end of the used market. Lot of people going to be sitting around with vehicles they can't afford. Some that have mods that I want already done. Basically I'm looking for a truck with a big lift to cover flooding, be able to drive over down trees and get through any sort of mud. Been wanting one for a while but it needs to be at the right value since I go through vehicles so fast. Combine the discounts likely coming with low interest rates and low gas prices it makes an easy decision for me.

I’m not sure how much over supply will exist. Ford, GM, and FCA have all shut down their factories. Can’t grow the supply if you’re not building anything.

Meanwhile, Ford’s credit rating was just dropped to -BBB. The Hackett regime continues is great level of success. </sarcasm>

 

[Saint_Ward]

@bclemms not sure when the right buy in point would be (A good dip was a few days ago), if you're not already leveraged here, but TIPS would be a smart buy if you think Inflation will skyrocket.

So far, it's been performing modestly well. But, it's more of a longer term play.