The Investment Thread (8 Viewers)

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I'm so bullish right now it scares me. I really hate that I had to close out my positions last Monday because I was too busy to monitor. I bought $910 TSLA puts when TSLA was at $1080, sold just as they were on the edge of the money and bought $1060 January calls. I doubled my money but if I was able to hold would be deep in the money today and that investment would have more than doubled again.

Just grabbed some AAL April options. I think air travel is about to go nuts and business travel is about to come screaming back. I think plane tickets may be about to start looking like hotel rooms and rental cars looked like the summer which would mean massive profits. The numbers from CES in Vegas next week will be a really big indicator. If much of the tech world packs the house in the face of a massive outbreak then it will be confirmation that the 20-30% that has been sitting quietly in the corner are about to come back out to play.

Grabbed both small cap and tech indexes. Even bought some gold which may be a stupid play since it should have been running for a year now and hasn't but commodities tend to lag rallies.

Also buying up oil. Think we are about to make a fast run up in the next month or two.


I'm also betting that Omicron is setting up for reduced covid restrictions in Asia which will fix some supply chain issues combined with being passed the pressure from Christmas. Time to extend this bubble into the credit markets as people dump all those savings they built up and start taking on debt they can't afford.
 
bclemms said:
I'm also betting that Omicron is setting up for reduced covid restrictions in Asia
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What do you mean ? I cant see how Omicron would help Covid restrictions .. i could see how it could hurt them, but if Omicron is shown to not be very harmful or intense then it could be a non factor .. but how exactly can it help ? Maybe I haven’t had enough coffee yet this morning to get it .
 
bclemms said:
I'm so bullish right now it scares me. I really hate that I had to close out my positions last Monday because I was too busy to monitor. I bought $910 TSLA puts when TSLA was at $1080, sold just as they were on the edge of the money and bought $1060 January calls. I doubled my money but if I was able to hold would be deep in the money today and that investment would have more than doubled again.

Just grabbed some AAL April options. I think air travel is about to go nuts and business travel is about to come screaming back. I think plane tickets may be about to start looking like hotel rooms and rental cars looked like the summer which would mean massive profits. The numbers from CES in Vegas next week will be a really big indicator. If much of the tech world packs the house in the face of a massive outbreak then it will be confirmation that the 20-30% that has been sitting quietly in the corner are about to come back out to play.

Grabbed both small cap and tech indexes. Even bought some gold which may be a stupid play since it should have been running for a year now and hasn't but commodities tend to lag rallies.

Also buying up oil. Think we are about to make a fast run up in the next month or two.


I'm also betting that Omicron is setting up for reduced covid restrictions in Asia which will fix some supply chain issues combined with being passed the pressure from Christmas. Time to extend this bubble into the credit markets as people dump all those savings they built up and start taking on debt they can't afford.
Click to expand...

I know you travel a lot via airlines.

We made 2 trips ( mid nov and early dec ) to Denver. Every single plane ( NO to Vegas, Vegas to Denver, Den to MSY then again NO to Denver, Denver to Hobby and Hobby to MSY ) was full. Not an empty seat to be had.

And that was just my flights on Southwest.

I think once things really start to flow in the direction of endemic, travel is going to go nuts. I had bought shares of LUV a year ago when it was depressed for this very reason.: Once they get past the Government restriction of dividends ( for taking bail out ) they will be flyin. ( ba dum bum ) Dividends.

Side note- not sure if its just Southwest, but i REALLY cant take their new "pre flight" jingle- " Give your seatbelt a tug, your neighbor a hug because this Boein is a GOIN"
 
Mr. Blue Sky said:
What do you mean ? I cant see how Omicron would help Covid restrictions .. i could see how it could hurt them, but if Omicron is shown to not be very harmful or intense then it could be a non factor .. but how exactly can it help ? Maybe I haven’t had enough coffee yet this morning to get it .
Click to expand...

not requiring closures, restrictions etc on workforce/workplace. Opening up manufacturing and supply chain.
 
Mr. Blue Sky said:
What do you mean ? I cant see how Omicron would help Covid restrictions .. i could see how it could hurt them, but if Omicron is shown to not be very harmful or intense then it could be a non factor .. but how exactly can it help ? Maybe I haven’t had enough coffee yet this morning to get it .
Click to expand...
Because once the world starts to figure out the combination of vaccines and prior infection combined with Omicrons greatly reduced severity that all restrictions are going to away and everything is going to be pegged at full steam ahead. I'm convinced that Omicron is a whole lot closer to the common cold than any of us realize and the data is going to start showing this very soon. The combination of multiple data points points really hard at Omicron cases being at least 5 times, probably 10 times higher than what is being tested without a much of an increase in hospitalizations. I know hospitalizations tends to lag but given Omicron's much shorter incubation period it shouldn't lag by weeks so I'm highly confident. So while there may be a rapid spike in cases it will be followed by a rapid fall and hit very low background numbers for a long time as omicron serves as a vaccine of sorts. I feel like it's the absolute best possible outcome. This doesn't mean Delta can't still circulate at low numbers and come roaring back next fall and lots of uncertainties still exist but Omicron is kicking that can at least 6 months down the road.
 
efil4stnias said:
I know you travel a lot via airlines.

We made 2 trips ( mid nov and early dec ) to Denver. Every single plane ( NO to Vegas, Vegas to Denver, Den to MSY then again NO to Denver, Denver to Hobby and Hobby to MSY ) was full. Not an empty seat to be had.

And that was just my flights on Southwest.

I think once things really start to flow in the direction of endemic, travel is going to go nuts. I had bought shares of LUV a year ago when it was depressed for this very reason.: Once they get past the Government restriction of dividends ( for taking bail out ) they will be flyin. ( ba dum bum ) Dividends.

Side note- not sure if its just Southwest, but i REALLY cant take their new "pre flight" jingle- " Give your seatbelt a tug, your neighbor a hug because this Boein is a GOIN"
Click to expand...
I didn't use CLEAR since the start of covid until just before Thanksgiving. Then all the sudden I wasn't sure how people could travel without it. Since November I've been to the following airports, JAN, DFW, LAX, MSP, SLC, JFK, MAD, BOS, LHR, La Palma, LGA, RNO, SMF, ATL, CLT, BNA, GCK, MCI and I'm sure I'm forgetting others. They've been packed, every airline, every flight is packed. Every flight I'm getting voucher offers. Airlines are adding flights back in and all the new plane orders that were cancelled with Boeing and Airbus are going to restrict how many flights can be added. That sounds bad at first for airlines because it means airlines are going to struggle to increase flights to meet demand but that is also going to create a supply shortage on flights which means prices are going to skyrocket. Higher fare prices will increase revenue much faster than adding capacity and increasing prices don't require increasing labor which is still a difficult task.

I don't think any airline is going to be able to outperform any other, they're all just going to be running max capacity for the next couple of years. May be a good opportunity for start up airlines and low budget carriers who will quickly jump on the price fixing bandwagon that AAL, UAL, DAL and LUV have clearly established. The only downside to low budget airlines and startups will be the used plane market is about to get really dry. Also a good environment for Boeing if they can figure out how to get out their own way. Combine quickly increasing profits with inflation and it is a debtor's paradise for AAL. If Boeing can pull their head out of their arse and start their own price fixing with Airbus then they could increase new order pricing by absurd amounts and airlines are going to rush to counter to order regardless.

At least that is my thinking on how this is about to play out.


Hotels have been investing huge amounts into new hotels all over the world. They are trying to increase supply at a very fast rate given the shortage that was experienced last year. The construction methods have gotten very cheap, most of the box hotels only keep 1 person on staff, the new hotels can be checked into using apps, smartphones work as keys and the only cost left is cleaning staff and breakfast crews. Hotels are super profitable right now. Only problem is the increasing supply of rooms coming down combined with air traffic not being able to expand my bring hotel prices back down towards pre-pandemic levels.

Rental Car companies are still experiencing some shortages but they are increasing supply as fast as car makers can spit out cars. They are paying a premium for cars right now and car rentals are very dependent on air travel. Like hotels, I think they may be struggle to see profits increase even if they are increasing revenue.

Cruise Companies are the play I like the least. A combination of people just not wanting to cruise due to it being a petri dish for not just covid but everything else is going to take a while to overcome. Increasing fuel costs is also a big challenge. Finally, people are becoming more environmentally aware and cruising is by far the least efficient way to travel. They lost a lot of customers to covid deaths in the elderly population and millenials are more likely to be anti-cruise than customers. I do like the luxury cruise options a lot more. The companies running the smaller and mid size luxury ships with huge premiums may have better luck but even those are a hard pass for me.
 
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efil4stnias said:
I know you travel a lot via airlines.

We made 2 trips ( mid nov and early dec ) to Denver. Every single plane ( NO to Vegas, Vegas to Denver, Den to MSY then again NO to Denver, Denver to Hobby and Hobby to MSY ) was full. Not an empty seat to be had.

And that was just my flights on Southwest.

I think once things really start to flow in the direction of endemic, travel is going to go nuts. I had bought shares of LUV a year ago when it was depressed for this very reason.: Once they get past the Government restriction of dividends ( for taking bail out ) they will be flyin. ( ba dum bum ) Dividends.

Side note- not sure if its just Southwest, but i REALLY cant take their new "pre flight" jingle- " Give your seatbelt a tug, your neighbor a hug because this Boein is a GOIN"
Click to expand...
Flights are packed, but less flights are available.

The real boon will be when wide bodies start flying again... aka international travel. That's the only part that hasn't come back. Asia isn't flying.

Mostly empty planes are a thing of the past now. But we still don't quite have full air routes. But, it's a lot better.
 

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