***TROPICAL ALERT*** TROPICAL STORM ETA (Late season tropical outlook discussion) (2 Viewers)

[EGLSShin]

Im just glad we didnt get hit by something like that.

 

[guidomerkinsrules]

Im just glad we didnt get hit by something like that.

There’d be nothing south of Baton Rouge if we got hit by that
Yikes!

 

[Saint_Ward]

GFS has a large hurricane in the gulf hugging the Western Florida coast for a few days. The Euro has it as a major hurricane north of Cuba at the end of it's run.

Why do I get the feeling this thing is going to do something?

Yeah, they have Eta doing some weird crap after hitting Central America.. we'll see.. The good news is lots of land interactions, and appears to be limited strengthening.

 

[Saint_Ward]

 

[Doug B]

Im just glad we didnt get hit by something like that.

Bad enough without the exaggerated wind speeds ... that tweet is sensationalist and partially false. Goni’s Wind speeds were 140 mph sustained with 190 mph gusts. Maybe an issue with kmph- to-mph conversion?

Strongest typhoon of 2020 slams the Philippines, killing at least 10

At least 10 people died and three others were missing after Typhoon Goni, the world's strongest typhoon this year, barrelled through the south of the Philippines' main island of Luzon on Sunday, an initial government report showed.

www.cnn.com

 

[gboudx]

Tropical storm forms in the central Caribbean Sea late yesterday

Eta is the 28th tropical storm of the 2020 hurricane season and ties 2005 for the most tropical storms in an Atlantic hurricane season since records began in 1851.

Discussion:
While the satellite appearance of Eta has slowly improved over the last 24 hours, the system lacks any defined inner core at the moment with scattered convection near/over the center and a large band well to the northeast and east of the center. Eta is a fairly large system and such systems generally take time to consolidate and develop. Eta is moving westward and this motion is expected to continue for the next 72 hours.

Track:
Eta is under the influence of a weak mid level ridge that extends from the Atlantic Ocean to near Cuba which is forcing the system toward the west. Strong high pressure building over the Gulf of Mexico will impart an increasingly WSW motion to Eta in about 36 hours and this motion should continue through landfall over either Honduras or Nicaragua by 60 hours. After landfall the system is expected to significantly slow down as the high pressure ridge over the Gulf of Mexico begins to weaken and a weakness begins to develop over the SE US. The main question is how strong and how far south is Eta as this weakness develops and is there enough of a defined system remaining to get pulled northward over the western Caribbean Sea and potentially the SE Gulf of Mexico. Given the expected land interaction and general slow motion beyond 72 hours, the latter portion of the track forecast is of lower than average confidence.

The official NHC forecast is near the center of the guidance cluster through 72 hours and then slightly south and west of the multi-model consensus through 120 hours. Adjustments in the track are likely over the next several days.

Intensity:
While Eta is in a favorable upper level pattern over very warm sea surface temperatures for development, the system has a fairly large circulation which is taking time to consolidate. Once an inner core forms, intensification is likely and in fact there could be a period of rapid intensification prior to Eta making landfall over central America. There is a large degree of uncertainty on how much Eta may interact with central America. Along the current forecast track, Eta would weaken significantly as the cyclone would interact with the high mountain areas over central America, but should the system slow or stall further to the east it would remain east of the highest mountains and weakening would be more gradual. The longer range intensity forecast is strongly tied to the long range track and land interaction.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District

 

[Zack Lee]

you know that i am, ugh fork, terribly afraid to say this, i seriously want vengeance on the hurricane, even though, i may be of a size not able to understand. under 5'6 should not be ignored.

with my stature (yes, it is smaller than normal), i work hard (lol) to keep the world safe from villainy, poised to ruin the the world as we know it.

 

[Madmarsha]

Catherine Zeta was pretty scary. How scared do I need to be of Et[t]a [James]?

 

[bonnjer]

Im just glad we didnt get hit by something like that.

About as strong as the planet can produce? Please don't let the Caribbean gyre catch wind of this.

 

[Dan in Lafayette]

Im just glad we didnt get hit by something like that.

 

[bonnjer]

Don't want any of that.

 

[efil4stnias]

Traffic lights at Causeway and w esplanade still out its middle of morning rush hour and no traffic control bt police. This is nuts

 

[guidomerkinsrules]

Traffic lights at Causeway and w esplanade still out its middle of morning rush hour and no traffic control bt police. This is nuts

Was surprised to see that this morning
And to hear JP schools remain closed until Wednesday and OP will assess after today

 

[Madmarsha]

Any chance for a Snowicane? This feels like the year we could get a snowicane

Those aren't real. My bet's on a sharknado. That's real.

 

[gboudx]

Eta rapidly intensifies into a hurricane.

Discussion:
Eta has rapidly increased in organization and intensity over the last 24 hours with the formation of a central dense overcast in and around the center and fairly deep convective banding surrounding the center. The overall large circulation has contracted inward toward the now formed inner core. Given that Eta has now developed a defined inner core, rapid intensification is likely until landfall over eastern central America later today. Per a USAF mission that has just arrived in Eta, winds are near 90mph and the central pressure is down to around 970mb…in fact the plane reported the central pressure is falling at 3-4mb between pass 1 and 2 through the center this morning.

Track:
The track forecast through the next 48-72 hours is fairly straight forward with Eta moving west to west-southwest due to a building high pressure ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. This will force the hurricane inland over eastern central America likely in the next 24 hours. After landfall a weakening Eta will continue to the west at a slow rate of speed and into the higher terrain over inland central America. By the end of this week, a weakness will begin to develop over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and FL and the remains of Eta may get pulled northward into the far western Caribbean Sea. While forecast models continue to show some sort of tropical system lifting northward over the western Caribbean Sea late this week, it is unclear if this modeled forecasted system is Eta or a new tropical system that forms. Given the amount of time Eta is expected to spend over the mountains of central America, it is unclear if much will be left of the low level circulation to enter the far southwestern/western Caribbean Sea

Intensity:
As with many recent this season, Eta is in the process of quick intensification with a well defined inner core surrounded by a ring of deep thunderstorms. Both atmospheric and ocean conditions are very favorable for continued intensification until landfall, and Eta will likely become a strong category 2 or minimal category 3 hurricane prior to landfall late this evening. Once inland the hurricane will weaken and by 48-60 hours as the circulation begins to interact with the high terrain over central America, significant weakening is likely and it is unclear if Eta will ever move out of central America as a defined tropical cyclone.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District