Ukraine (34 Viewers)

[efil4stnias]

 

[efil4stnias]

Young Ukrainian soldier recounts a defensive battle in an interview not a day after being rotated out. You can FEEL/SEE the anxiety and how, as he tells the story, he is right back in that dugout. Visceral. He absolutely loses it at the end.

Brutal.

 

[DCSaints_Fan]

This tracks pretty well with Chinese Yuan and Indian Rupee - two of their largest trading partners






So this is not a "decoupling" as some have speculated. This could be the beginnings of a collapse

 

[efil4stnias]

This tracks pretty well with Chinese Yuan and Indian Rupee - two of their largest trading partners






So this is not a "decoupling" as some have speculated. This could be the beginnings of a collapse

and if Urals oil pbl continues to decline in price, that will put even more pressure on the FOREX for the Ruble, devaluing it even further.

I think if it passes 110, then you see folks inside Russia begin to see hints of panic at the banks. They are losing purchasing power every, single, day.

Just 2 months ago, if you were Russian looking to go on vacation, a $350 airfare ( for instance- if in USD ) was 28,700 rubles. Today is 37,715. thats a pretty remarkable increase in a very short period of time. If you had a family of 4, thats 150,860 ( roughly 36,000 MORE. )

The AVERAGE income in Russia is around 100,000 rubles/mo ( Thats Moscow ) 80,000 for St Petersburg and as low as 45-60,000 in the East.

And thats just vacation. Everything will cost more - imports especially - and that will put more pressure on the financial system as a whole. Exports should go up, since the Ruble is devalued, but they dont produce a lot of exports. Top 3 is Oil, Gas and Coal. Next is Iron and fertilizer.

But remember, oil prices need to be around $65 or more...start getting below $65 and its no longer profitable.


ts the spiral down- if that is starting, its going to be damn near impossible to stop.

 

[DCSaints_Fan]

and if Urals oil pbl continues to decline in price, that will put even more pressure on the FOREX for the Ruble, devaluing it even further.

I think if it passes 110, then you see folks inside Russia begin to see hints of panic at the banks. They are losing purchasing power every, single, day.

Just 2 months ago, if you were Russian looking to go on vacation, a $350 airfare ( for instance- if in USD ) was 28,700 rubles. Today is 37,715. thats a pretty remarkable increase in a very short period of time. If you had a family of 4, thats 150,860 ( roughly 36,000 MORE. )

The AVERAGE income in Russia is around 100,000 rubles/mo ( Thats Moscow ) 80,000 for St Petersburg and as low as 45-60,000 in the East.

And thats just vacation. Everything will cost more - imports especially - and that will put more pressure on the financial system as a whole. Exports should go up, since the Ruble is devalued, but they dont produce a lot of exports. Top 3 is Oil, Gas and Coal. Next is Iron and fertilizer.

But remember, oil prices need to be around $65 or more...start getting below $65 and its no longer profitable.


ts the spiral down- if that is starting, its going to be damn near impossible to stop.

OTOH, the ruble lost 50% of value back over a span of six months in 2014 after the sanctions and oil market collapse, and they seemed able to manage that.

But they weren't fighting an active hot war back then, so maybe the situations aren't comparable.

 

[rail]

Young Ukrainian soldier recounts a defensive battle in an interview not a day after being rotated out. You can FEEL/SEE the anxiety and how, as he tells the story, he is right back in that dugout. Visceral. He absolutely loses it at the end.

Brutal.

GD, that hits hard.

 

[efil4stnias]

But they weren't fighting an active hot war back then, so maybe the situations aren't comparable.

I thinnk that is a major part- their 2025 budget is forecasted to be 41% defense spending ( thats NOT including the bonus/salary/kia/wia payments to Russians - that actually goes under "social programs" lol )

They didnt have 500,000+ men on payroll, with 1000+ dying/injured daily ( 500,000 + already dead/injured and the compensation for them - both in bonus, salary and death payment to next of kin ) And dont forget the mobilization/contract aspect- men earning measly 40,000/mo can get 100,000 to fight in Ukraine. So now govt foots bill, AND his position wherever worked now unfilled and no other labor to be found.

its a self-feeding cycle.

 

[efil4stnias]

 

[DCSaints_Fan]

I thinnk that is a major part- their 2025 budget is forecasted to be 41% defense spending ( thats NOT including the bonus/salary/kia/wia payments to Russians - that actually goes under "social programs" lol )

They didnt have 500,000+ men on payroll, with 1000+ dying/injured daily ( 500,000 + already dead/injured and the compensation for them - both in bonus, salary and death payment to next of kin ) And dont forget the mobilization/contract aspect- men earning measly 40,000/mo can get 100,000 to fight in Ukraine. So now govt foots bill, AND his position wherever worked now unfilled and no other labor to be found.

its a self-feeding cycle.

I wonder why they can't import labor from say, India. At least for the low skilled positions.

I guess having Russian men die on the front lines while foreign labor work their jobs isn't exactly a big morale booster for the populace.

 

[baarbogast]

 

[efil4stnias]

I dont think the easing of sanctions after the New Year will help Russia in the long term. It may buy them additional time, but the basic, fundamentals of the Russian economy is in very bad shape. Lifting sanctions wont solve those problems- they are internal and deep rooted. The bulk of which is tied to social programs and defense. ( in 2025 defense is set to be 41% of total Russian budget ) That doesnt leave much wiggle room if your numbers are off.

And the bulk of Russian revenue is in sales of Urals oil. If that price gets around $60/pbl - they are in a really bad spot ( currently around $67 )

They have a myriad of issues to sort thru and consequences from how they deal with the issues ( could be hyperinflation, stagflation or deep recession - depending on how they go about dealing with current issues ) I think it was posted here last week:




Russia running out of bullets to effectively tackle all the issues. If they run out completely, thats when things will spiral, and it wont stop until it hits bottom.

Lots of moving parts to a countrys economic well-being. Any deviation or shock to any one part can cause issues in a HEALTHY economy. Russian economic health is failing- so imagine what a major crisis/shock would do then? fast-track the spiral.

( should also give one an appreciation for the FED here and just how hard it is to keep things steady when there is/are a crisis - financial or otherwise )

about one of the bullets- print more money.

They cant- its against the law

Prune60 (@prune602.bsky.social)

Also, people ask me a lot of about the Russian Central Bank just…printing money. Or if they could buy the bonds direct from the Russian Central Bank. They can’t

bsky.app

 

[efil4stnias]

I wonder why they can't import labor from say, India. At least for the low skilled positions.

I guess having Russian men die on the front lines while foreign labor work their jobs isn't exactly a big morale booster for the populace.

Oh there is a whole thread i read about this a while back. Russians HATE "diversity" - HATE. IT.

here is an article on it

Diminishing returns. Russia is facing a massive shortfall in migrant labour thatâs only being made worse by the governmentâs own populist rhetoric â Novaya Gazeta Europe

The Russian authorities have reached new levels of anti-migrant rhetoric in recent months, with law enforcement agencies openly targeting non-white people, and one senior Interior Ministry figure even calling for the âlightening upâ of the Moscow region so that it doesnât âturn too darkâ. At...

novayagazeta.eu

then you compound that with many migrants LURED to Russia for "work" - only to be duped into signing a contract with Defense Ministry and on way to Ukraine without even realizing til too late.

India's Foreign Minister had to personally request return of Indians -

India urges Russia to return its citizens recruited by Russia's army after 2 were killed

India says it has urged Russia to return Indian citizens recruited by Russia’s army after two were killed recently in the war in Ukraine.

apnews.com

 

[efil4stnias]

about one of the bullets- print more money.

They cant- its against the law

Prune60 (@prune602.bsky.social)

Also, people ask me a lot of about the Russian Central Bank just…printing money. Or if they could buy the bonds direct from the Russian Central Bank. They can’t

bsky.app

And the big thing to take away from all of these discussions is that there is no magic solution. There just a whole bunch of bad choices.

Russia has to decide what they’re going to do to deal with these problem, we’re just going to watch the show.

Prune60 (@prune602.bsky.social)

And the big thing to take away from all of these discussions is that there is no magic solution. There just a whole bunch of bad choices. Russia has to decide what they’re going to do to deal with these problem, we’re just going to watch the show.

bsky.app

And now news just broke- Russian Central Bank expected to raise the rate to 23% in December meeting and 25% by Feb 2025.....good lawd.

Банки приготовились к повышению ставки ЦБ до 25% - Русская служба The Moscow Times

Российские банки готовятся к дальнейшему ужесточению денежной политики Центробанка из-за всплеска инфляции, который накрывает экономику на фоне триллионных военных расходов и девальвации рубля.На заседании в декабре ЦБ может повысить ключевую ставку до 23%, а в феврале сделать еще один шаг вверх...

www.moscowtimes.ru

 

[efil4stnias]

I wonder why they can't import labor from say, India. At least for the low skilled positions.

I guess having Russian men die on the front lines while foreign labor work their jobs isn't exactly a big morale booster for the populace.

dont know if you are on Bluesky- but if so and interested in all this economic stuff, here is Prune60. She does a masterful job of explaining the how and why-

This thread is about Russian Bank surplus liquidity ( spoiler- its negative lol )

Prune60 (@prune602.bsky.social)

This is a chart of the surplus liquidity in Russian Banking based on data from the Russian Central Bank as of today 26 November 2024. Anything in the white zone is a surplus, any thing in the red zone is a deficit.

bsky.app

 

[Sailorsaint]

I thinnk that is a major part- their 2025 budget is forecasted to be 41% defense spending ( thats NOT including the bonus/salary/kia/wia payments to Russians - that actually goes under "social programs" lol )

They didnt have 500,000+ men on payroll, with 1000+ dying/injured daily ( 500,000 + already dead/injured and the compensation for them - both in bonus, salary and death payment to next of kin ) And dont forget the mobilization/contract aspect- men earning measly 40,000/mo can get 100,000 to fight in Ukraine. So now govt foots bill, AND his position wherever worked now unfilled and no other labor to be found.

its a self-feeding cycle.

They don’t have to pay kia compensation if the soldier is listed as mia. That’s how they save money.