2024 Tropical Weather Thread (3 Viewers)

[Madmarsha]

 

[bclemms]

00z GFS and HAFS-A is East of current center line. Other models havent run but I feel like models are dialed in and confidence in track is high for landfall between Vermillion Bay and Houma.

 

[Dan in Lafayette]

 

[Dan in Lafayette]

 

[Dan in Lafayette]

Has anybody said it yet? It is time to hunker down!!!



Time to bend your knees and squat.

 

[Dan in Lafayette]

 

[Hubig]

Looks like its really starting to get its act together. 90mph now.

 

[nolaswede]

Looks like they are expecting it to become a cat 2! But maybe expecting it to become a cat 1 again at landfall?

 

[Bill]

Well, I rolled the dice in trusting the sheer to hold down the intensification. But it looks like this thing will turn into an 'E ticket' ride.

 

[TheRealJRad]

Entergy got power outages already in New Orleans? The storm has not even arrived.

My coworker who lives in BR lost internet and power yesterday.

 

[superchuck500]

Per the 4AM NHC update peak intensity will be 100 mph Cat 2.

 

[nolaswede]

Per the 4AM NHC update peak intensity will be 100 mph Cat 2.

Now is that at landfall or are they expecting it to drop to a Cat 1 at landfall? Even though 100mph is “only” 4-5 mph stronger than a Cat 1!

 

[superchuck500]

Now is that at landfall or are they expecting it to drop to a Cat 1 at landfall? Even though 100mph is “only” 4-5 mph stronger than a Cat 1!

No it appears to be intensifying through landfall. Current winds at 92 mph per the flights. Looking at where the center is, I’d say that 100 mph might be conservative because it will have all of the daylight hours today over water before landfall this evening.

 

[nolaswede]

 

[nolaswede]

7AM update seems to have it going through Prairieville, just west of Gonzales. Not much of a change.