NFL Draft Ashton Jeanty or Tyler Warren? (38 Viewers)

[WhoDat?DrewDat]

What oline or dline prospect is worth the 9th pick? I honestly see better value going Jeanty at 9 and like in the second round than the opposite.

I think if someone offers you a trade back to a place you're more comfortable taking an OL (Membou) you have to think about it.

Future assets + OL is always a good move.

 

[tyler735]

Peterson was many years ago and I don't think McCaffery was an elite prospect. In part because of concerns about durability which have proved to be true.

McCaffrey was an elite prospect and has had multiple years since where he has been considered the best RB in the NFL.

And I don't think Robinson was elite either. And yet, many think he was a better prospect than Jeanty.

Robinson was elite whether you think so or not. The vast majority of people had him as an elite prospect prior to the draft. Many think Jeanty is better than Robinson.

I really don't get the blinders people have with Jeanty. He's a very good RB, but it's not clear that he is elite and if he isn't elite then he's not BPA at #9.

I also don't get the blinders people have with Jeanty trying to discount him as it is so incredibly obvious that he's an elite talent at RB.

 

[jboss]

Right because it's impossible to watch a guy play an have a different opinions about how good he is.

It kinda is if you only watched one game

 

[St. Widge]

And I don’t get this blind hate from someone that doesn’t seem to have watched much of him before arguing so intensely against him.

What hate? I don't hate the guy and I'm not even arguing intensely. All I said is that if he is elite then he's going top 5 and if he isn't then he isn't worth the #9 pick because he won't be BPA. He's likely a top 15 guy at worst IMO so if he falls to #9 you would hope that someone you have rated better is on the board so taking him at #9 would be avoiding BPA. If you think he's a top 5 guy and would always be BPA at #9 that's cool. I disagree, but that's cool. Is that really hate?

Yes, I have some questions about his ability given the level of competition he played. Is that what counts as hate there days? If you don't join the cult of Jeanty, you must hate him?

 

[St. Widge]

McCaffrey was an elite prospect and has had multiple years since where he has been considered the best RB in the NFL.

Robinson was elite whether you think so or not. The vast majority of people had him as an elite prospect prior to the draft. Many think Jeanty is better than Robinson.

I also don't get the blinders people have with Jeanty trying to discount him as it is so incredibly obvious that he's an elite talent at RB.

Elite gets thrown around way too often.

 

[St. Widge]

It kinda is if you only watched one game

Then I guess it's a good thing I didn't just watch one game that he played.

 

[WhoDat?DrewDat]

I remember the Lions took Gibbs EARLIER than everyone was expecting him to go and now they looked like geniuses for doing it. No one questioned Atlanta taking Robinson in the top 10, they've taken heat for not using him enough though.

Worth noting this is a terrible example. Lions have a stacked roster with one of the best OLs and RBs raise the ceiling of your team not the floor.

 

[St. Geezy]

What hate? I don't hate the guy and I'm not even arguing intensely. All I said is that if he is elite then he's going top 5 and if he isn't then he isn't worth the #9 pick because he won't be BPA. He's likely a to 15 guy at worst IMO so if he falls to #9 you would hope that someone you have rated better is on the board so taking him at #9 would be avoiding BPA. If you think he's a top 5 guy and would always be BPA at #9 that cool. I disagree, but that's cool. Is that really hate?

Yes, I have some questions about his ability given the level of competition he played. Is that what counts as hate there days? If you don't join the cult of Jeanty, you must hate him?

This is getting to the “Arguing just to argue” point. Sorry man, but that’s just how it seems.

 

[jboss]

Then I guess it's a good thing I didn't just watch one game that he played.

Oforsureman

 

[tyler735]

Elite gets thrown around way too often.

Not in this case. Or the above players I mentioned.

 

[Elvis]

What hate? I don't hate the guy and I'm not even arguing intensely. All I said is that if he is elite then he's going top 5 and if he isn't then he isn't worth the #9 pick because he won't be BPA. He's likely a top 15 guy at worst IMO so if he falls to #9 you would hope that someone you have rated better is on the board so taking him at #9 would be avoiding BPA. If you think he's a top 5 guy and would always be BPA at #9 that's cool. I disagree, but that's cool. Is that really hate?

Yes, I have some questions about his ability given the level of competition he played. Is that what counts as hate there days? If you don't join the cult of Jeanty, you must hate him?

It's the same gaslighting nonsense we get trying to have a conversation about the cap and how Carr fits into it. If you don't bend the knee to their thinking, you hate Loomis or Carr or now Jeanty. You are such a hater Widge.

 

[VolSaint]

1. You are assuming he is an elite back.

2. It's the only high level competition he really played this year unless you think Oregon's defense is high level competition.

3. Teams in the NFL will commit to stopping the run if he's the feature back. So, yes, he needs to be able to run against that and the defenses he will face in the NFL will be better than Penn State.

4. I don't get this blind love of Jeanty where nobody is allowed to even question how good he is because of the level of competition he played. Nobody has a problem with that when it comes to OL or DL that dominated lower level competition.

1. I mean by all accounts, he is. You said guys like McCaffery and Bijan weren't elite prospects, and neither is Jeanty, but I really wanna know what would make an elite HB prospect then. These guys top college stats, have the film, and in the case of McCaffery and Bijan, provide noticeable value to their teams. I really am curious then to what else could a HB prospect have to be an elite prospect.

2. Oregon didn't get to #1 with a bad defense. He also played against UNLV twice this season, which was ranked and had a very good team, and Washington in 2023. He put up good numbers in all of these games with a significantly worse surrounding cast. I really am not sure what else you would want in terms of competition either. Most college teams only play around 2-3 good teams each year. National Champs Ohio State only played against Oregon, Penn State, and Michigan regular season. It's just not common for most teams to constantly be battling against high level teams. And even in the cases Jeanty did, he constantly put up 100+ games.

3. Then that opens up the passing game? No one expects Jeanty to completely carry an offense, but if he's able to force the defense to completely focus on the run, I'm not sure how this is a negative.

4. It's not blind love, he's just very clearly in the elite talent basket of this class.

 

[3ParStillDriver]

So versus exactly what he would see with many teams, particularly the Saints, in the NFL. That means something and needs to be part of the assessment. As does the level of competition he played against and his level of athletic ability.

He had an amazing year but that is no guarantee he is going to be a star in the NFL especially when the level of competition needs to be taken into account. These are the to 10 years by NCAA RBs. It's a mixed bag as far as NFL success. Most are solid players but few are stars and many that were just good NFL RBs played lower level competition:

1. Oklahoma State RB Barry Sanders (1988): 2,628 yards
2. Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty (2024): 2,601 yards
3. Wisconsin RB Melvin Gordon (2014): 2,587 yards
4. UCF RB Kevin Smith (2007): 2,567 yards
5. USC RB Marcus Allen (1981): 2,342 yards
6. San Diego State RB Rashaad Penny (2017): 2,248 yards
7. Alabama RB Derrick Henry (2015): 2,219 yards
8. Wisconsin RB Jonathan Taylor (2018): 2,194
9. Iowa State RB Troy Davis (1996): 2,185 yards
10. Boston College RB Andre Williams (2013): 2,17

You also need to go look at Oline talent. Boise St doesn't have one single Olineman skilled enough to be drafted. Not one. And Ashton Jeanty still rushed for 3.5 yard average on 30 carries against NFL caliber talent at Dline (Adbul Carter) and LB, and even broke one for 26.

That's nothing short of incredible.

Jordan James for Oregon with an all star cast Oline, who several will go in the first 3 rounds of the draft, two of them tackles this year rushed for a 4.3 average on 20 carries. Only .8 more then Jeanty. With an exceptional Oline.

You would probably average somewhere between -4 and -10 on 30 carries. If you lived. I'd be dead or paralyzed at best in the first 4.

 

[VolSaint]

The thread is really about Jeanty vs Warren at 9. To me it's absurd to think any team would take Warren over Jeanty both being available. I also don't think Jeanty will last that long, both at the moment and especially after the combine. But if he falls that far he should be head and shoulders above anyone else available. As BPA as BPA gets. An AD level draft day fall.

The Warren pick really makes sense for the Saints to me, and while I would be happy with either I very slightly prefer Warren. The dude can line up at TE, WR, or HB, which are all needs for the Saints in some capacity. Penn State was able to run their offense through him, and if Kellen Moore were to get his hands on Warren, I would be really excited to see what could be cooked up.

It seems though that we'll have less of a choice between Warren or Jeanty, and more like we will have one of the two available for us. We're at the very edge of the draft range to grab an elite guy, which we should do no matter who falls. I'd much rather get the talent vs picking an OL or DL guy who may be at best top 16 like we've been doing for the past 10 years.

 

[3ParStillDriver]

The Warren pick really makes sense for the Saints to me, and while I would be happy with either I very slightly prefer Warren. The dude can line up at TE, WR, or HB, which are all needs for the Saints in some capacity. Penn State was able to run their offense through him, and if Kellen Moore were to get his hands on Warren, I would be really excited to see what could be cooked up.

It seems though that we'll have less of a choice between Warren or Jeanty, and more like we will have one of the two available for us. We're at the very edge of the draft range to grab an elite guy, which we should do no matter who falls. I'd much rather get the talent vs picking an OL or DL guy who may be at best top 16 like we've been doing for the past 10 years.

Try to think of it this way. LT in his prime or Kelce in his prime. Which do you prefer? I don't think either is "wrong". We would be very lucky to have either.