NFL Draft Ashton Jeanty or Tyler Warren? (31 Viewers)

[tyler735]

Didn't know that. I guess we will have to wait for him to run at his pro-day. If he doesn't do that then it's a red flag for me that he and his agent don't think he will run well.

There's no concerns with his speed. This is becoming more and more the norm for top prospects to not run at the combine and sometimes not even at all (Marvin Harrison and Brock Bowers last year didn't run at all).

Advanced analytics and the eye test can easily tell anyone watching that Ashton Jeanty has great explosive ability and is fast enough to consistently break off big plays.

 

[tyler735]

Where did I say it was absurd?

And the point is that most of the elite prospects do go in the top 5 which makes it unlikely for him to fall to #9 if he is an elite prospect. It's not absurd to say he might make it to #9, but if he is elite then it's still not likely given draft history. These guys know the elite guys when they see them.

Yet McCaffrey, Peterson, and Bijan Robinson were all picked right around where we currently pick.

 

[St. Geezy]

So versus exactly what he would see with many teams, particularly the Saints, in the NFL. That means something and needs to be part of the assessment. As does the level of competition he played against and his level of athletic ability.

He had an amazing year but that is no guarantee he is going to be a star in the NFL especially when the level of competition needs to be taken into account. These are the to 10 years by NCAA RBs. It's a mixed bag as far as NFL success. Most are solid players but few are stars and many that were just good NFL RBs played lower level competition:

1. Oklahoma State RB Barry Sanders (1988): 2,628 yards
2. Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty (2024): 2,601 yards
3. Wisconsin RB Melvin Gordon (2014): 2,587 yards
4. UCF RB Kevin Smith (2007): 2,567 yards
5. USC RB Marcus Allen (1981): 2,342 yards
6. San Diego State RB Rashaad Penny (2017): 2,248 yards
7. Alabama RB Derrick Henry (2015): 2,219 yards
8. Wisconsin RB Jonathan Taylor (2018): 2,194
9. Iowa State RB Troy Davis (1996): 2,185 yards
10. Boston College RB Andre Williams (2013): 2,17

And this is why film gets watched…to get an assessment of his abilities and what he’s looking like and what special things he’s doing when getting yards. Just like every other position, highly decorated and statistically elite players sometimes bust.

It’s hard to project how a player’s skill level and motivation level will translate to the NFL, and it just as hard to project how the players’ skill sets will project into the specific team environment and system he gets drafted into.

Any argument I make for Jeanty going top 10 is centered on the idea that the scouts and experts have his evaluation correct. Sometimes, most of the time even, they don’t, regardless of position.

 

[St. Widge]

Yet McCaffrey, Peterson, and Bijan Robinson were all picked right around where we currently pick.

Peterson was many years ago and I don't think McCaffery was an elite prospect. In part because of concerns about durability which have proved to be true. And I don't think Robinson was elite either. And yet, many think he was a better prospect than Jeanty.

I really don't get the blinders people have with Jeanty. He's a very good RB, but it's not clear that he is elite and if he isn't elite then he's not BPA at #9.

 

[livefromDC]

Versus a stacked team focused on him and matching up against an overmatched OL. That means something and needs to be a part of the assessment.

No kidding. He presented that as if it didn't mean automatic first downs.

 

[St. Widge]

And this is why film gets watched…to get an assessment of his abilities and what he’s looking like and what special things he’s doing when getting yards. Just like every other position, highly decorated and statistically elite players sometimes bust.

It’s hard to project how a player’s skill level and motivation level will translate to the NFL, and it just as hard to project how the players’ skill sets will project into the specific team environment and system he gets drafted into.

Any argument I make for Jeanty going top 10 is centered on the idea that the scouts and experts have his evaluation correct. Sometimes, most of the time even, they don’t, regardless of position.

The thing is that we don't know what the actual scouts and actual experts think about Jeanty. We just know what the "draft experts" think. We will get a better idea of what the scouts and teams think of him as the draft gets closer and reporters talk to scouts and teams that have made their final evaluations and started stacking their boards.

Maybe he is elite. I don't really know because it's hard to tell how good he really is when he's a guy that counts on breaking a lot of tackles but is doing it against lower level competition. And very few backs end up being great in the NFL based on tackle breaking ability alone. So, he is going to need to show he has quickness that I'm not sure he has.

 

[St. Geezy]

No kidding. He presented that as if it didn't mean automatic first downs.

Yeah I don’t understand the argument that just because an elite back got “stopped” (for lack of better word) against a good team, it drops his value.

It happens all the time with elite backs. Go look at Adrian Peterson’s college numbers game by game.

When teams know you’re their opponent’s best player, and if they have the horses to get it done, they sometimes eliminate you from impacting the game. It happens.

And again, if it was so easy to do what Jeanty did against the competition he faced, then why was no one else in that conference doing it?

 

[St. Widge]

No kidding. He presented that as if it didn't mean automatic first downs.

So obviously you would be good with a RB picked at #9 that averaged 3.5 YPC?

 

[jboss]

Peterson was many years ago and I don't think McCaffery was an elite prospect. In part because of concerns about durability which have proved to be true. And I don't think Robinson was elite either. And yet, many think he was a better prospect than Jeanty.

I really don't get the blinders people have with Jeanty. He's a very good RB, but it's not clear that he is elite and if he isn't elite then he's not BPA at #9.

The thread is really about Jeanty vs Warren at 9. To me it's absurd to think any team would take Warren over Jeanty both being available. I also don't think Jeanty will last that long, both at the moment and especially after the combine. But if he falls that far he should be head and shoulders above anyone else available. As BPA as BPA gets. An AD level draft day fall.

 

[St. Geezy]

The thing is that we don't know what the actual scouts and actual experts think about Jeanty. We just know what the "draft experts" think. We will get a better idea of what the scouts and teams think of him as the draft gets closer and reporters talk to scouts and teams that have made their final evaluations and started stacking their boards.

Maybe he is elite. I don't really know because it's hard to tell how good he really is when he's a guy that counts on breaking a lot of tackles but is doing it against lower level competition. And very few backs end up being great in the NFL based on tackle breaking ability alone. So, he is going to need to show he has quickness that I'm not sure he has.

He’s one of the fastest, quickest players in college football.

I say this respectfully, but it doesn’t seem like you have a full understanding of this player’s abilities or haven’t watched much of him before trying to counter-argue against him as intensely as you have.

 

[jboss]

So obviously you would be good with a RB picked at #9 that averaged 3.5 YPC?

Lol so many people on here making it obvious that's the only game they ever saw him in. Without Jeanty they wouldn't have even been ranked, much less in that game.

 

[St. Widge]

Yeah I don’t understand the argument that just because an elite back got “stopped” (for lack of better word) against a good team, it drops his value.

It happens all the time with elite backs. Go look at Adrian Peterson’s college numbers game by game.

When teams know you’re their opponent’s best player, and if they have the horses to get it done, they sometimes eliminate you from impacting the game. It happens.

And again, if it was so easy to do what Jeanty did against the competition he faced, then why was no one else in that conference doing it?

1. You are assuming he is an elite back.

2. It's the only high level competition he really played this year unless you think Oregon's defense is high level competition.

3. Teams in the NFL will commit to stopping the run if he's the feature back. So, yes, he needs to be able to run against that and the defenses he will face in the NFL will be better than Penn State.

4. I don't get this blind love of Jeanty where nobody is allowed to even question how good he is because of the level of competition he played. Nobody has a problem with that when it comes to OL or DL that dominated lower level competition.

 

[St. Geezy]

So obviously you would be good with a RB picked at #9 that averaged 3.5 YPC?

Adrian Peterson’s game by game stats.

Great backs get stopped all the time, sometimes even against bad teams.

It happens. Teams completely sell out to stop you and are sometimes successful.

 

[St. Geezy]

1. You are assuming he is an elite back.

2. It's the only high level competition he really played this year unless you think Oregon's defense is high level competition.

3. Teams in the NFL will commit to stopping the run if he's the feature back. So, yes, he needs to be able to run against that and the defenses he will face in the NFL will be better than Penn State.

4. I don't get this blind love of Jeanty where nobody is allowed to even question how good he is because of the level of competition he played. Nobody has a problem with that when it comes to OL or DL that dominated lower level competition.

And I don’t get this blind hate from someone that doesn’t seem to have watched much of him before arguing so intensely against him.

 

[St. Widge]

Lol so many people on here making it obvious that's the only game they ever saw him in. Without Jeanty they wouldn't have even been ranked, much less in that game.

Right because it's impossible to watch a guy play an have a different opinions about how good he is.