COVID-19 Outbreak (Update: More than 2.9M cases and 132,313 deaths in US) (8 Viewers)

[Twyst]

Was hoping for some good news going into the summer that heat/humidity would slow spread but seen a couple of studies lately saying temperature/climate has little effect

Temperature has little or no impact on spread of coronavirus, new study suggests

‘Seasonality is likely to play only a minor role in the epidemiology of Covid-19,’ scientists conclude

www.independent.co.uk

 

[StudioSaint]

Was hoping for some good news going into the summer that heat/humidity would slow spread but seen a couple of studies lately saying temperature/climate has little effect

Temperature has little or no impact on spread of coronavirus, new study suggests

‘Seasonality is likely to play only a minor role in the epidemiology of Covid-19,’ scientists conclude

www.independent.co.uk

From that article:

Dr Peter Juni, of the University of Toronto, said in a press release that the team found little or no link between infection spread and temperature or latitude, and only a weak association with humidity. “We had conducted a preliminary study that suggested both latitude and temperature could play a role. But when we repeated the study under much more rigorous conditions, we got the opposite result,” he said.

The authors studied 144 regions around the world, including states in the US, Australia and Canada. They estimated epidemic growth by comparing the number of cases on March 27 with the figure from a week prior, and with a string of variables during an “exposure period” between 7 and 13 March.

The authors noted a number of limitations in their study, first among which was that “because of considerable differences in testing practices between different geopolitical areas, actual rates of Covid-19 could not be reliably estimated”. Their research is just the latest to examine the links between disease spread and weather, and was published in the Canadian Medical Association Journal.

​

 

[StudioSaint]

Reopenings bring new cases in S. Korea, virus fears in Italy

ROME (AP) — South Korea's capital closed down more than 2,100 bars and other nightspots Saturday because of a new cluster of coronavirus infections, Germany scrambled to contain fresh outbreaks at slaughterhouses, and Italian authorities worried that people were getting too friendly at cocktail hour

apnews.com

On Friday, South Korea urged nightclubs to close for a month after new cases jumped above 10 for the first time in five days. A decline in new infections had prompted the government to ease social distancing guidelines and announce plans to reopen schools Wednesday.
Most of the new cases are linked to the Itaewon leisure district of the capital, Seoul, where a 29-year-old man visited three nightclubs before testing positive.

 

[WhoDatPhan78]

Everyone in the short term benefits. In the long term, we have to address the debt or it will cause far more problems.

I'm not too worried about inflation in the short term but if we get this perfect recovery then hyper inflation could be a real thing and we will have to turn around and chose whether to roll with hyper inflation and cause even farther separation of classes or chose a really long down period in the economy. The good news is hyper inflation would let up pay off the debt fairly easily. The bad news is we are just as likely to see this recovery go sideways really quickly and enter deflationary period that the FED will spray even more money across the economy.

So yeah, free money is never free. The question just becomes which generation pays for it?

I’m not sure inflation is as big a concern when every country is basically going through the same thing.

Our economy is consumption based. Giving money to consumers makes sense.

 

[travelingsaintsfan]

The New Orleans Mardi Gras has been blamed for the virus counts/deaths in Louisiana so I am wondering if the Tampa RV Supershow which was held in January is blamed any for Florida. There are usually several hundred thousand people at this over a 5 day span. I am thinking about going next year, but I am hesitant.

 

[bclemms]

I’m not sure inflation is as big a concern when every country is basically going through the same thing.

Our economy is consumption based. Giving money to consumers makes sense.

Right, it's why the dollar stays strong. It's being compared to other currencies doing the same thing. At some point though, it will all collapse. It could be this afternoon, could be in 200 years. If giving money away didn't have negative side effects, why not just give everyone single person in the USA $75,000 to make sure everyone is taken care of?

 

[WhoDatPhan78]

Right, it's why the dollar stays strong. It's being compared to other currencies doing the same thing. At some point though, it will all collapse. It could be this afternoon, could be in 200 years. If giving money away didn't have negative side effects, why not just give everyone single person in the USA $75,000 to make sure everyone is taken care of?

I don’t think giving everyone 75000 dollars would be as catastrophic as people seem to think.

 

[superchuck500]

 

[Eeyore]

I don’t think giving everyone 75000 dollars would be as catastrophic as people seem to think.

I think that you're right. The money will end up in the hands of the banks and/or the corporations very quickly. I'd pay off my student loans, my car and stuff the rest in the bank. Most would do the same, or pay down mortgages and the rest would bliw it so quickly that you wouldn't be able to tell that it happened at all in very short order.

 

[Eeyore]

This makes me wonder if a lot of those against contact tracing are against it because it'll expose their activities to their families.

 

[RKNSaint]

Yeah, that's why I think the economy is screwed for a very long time here. We can keep it out of the state but we would also keep unemployment super high by doing that. Not sure what people will do when unemployment runs out if this thing is still rampant in a year.

Perhaps mistaken, but I thought Hawaii didn’t really like tourist coming into the State anyway?

 

[St. Geezy]

Right, it's why the dollar stays strong. It's being compared to other currencies doing the same thing. At some point though, it will all collapse. It could be this afternoon, could be in 200 years. If giving money away didn't have negative side effects, why not just give everyone single person in the USA $75,000 to make sure everyone is taken care of?

I don’t think giving everyone 75000 dollars would be as catastrophic as people seem to think.

I think that you're right. The money will end up in the hands of the banks and/or the corporations very quickly. I'd pay off my student loans, my car and stuff the rest in the bank. Most would do the same, or pay down mortgages and the rest would bliw it so quickly that you wouldn't be able to tell that it happened at all in very short order.

If you give every American $75,000, a loaf of bread becomes $25 within two weeks.

The entire economic system would fall upside down on its head.

Now, if you rolled out that $75,000 payout over say a 2 to 3 year period, that would help curb the negative effect on the value of the dollar.

 

[superchuck500]

South Carolina moving to phase 2.

 

[N.O.Bronco]

Everyone in the short term benefits. In the long term, we have to address the debt or it will cause far more problems.

I'm not too worried about inflation in the short term but if we get this perfect recovery then hyper inflation could be a real thing and we will have to turn around and chose whether to roll with hyper inflation and cause even farther separation of classes or chose a really long down period in the economy. The good news is hyper inflation would let up pay off the debt fairly easily. The bad news is we are just as likely to see this recovery go sideways really quickly and enter deflationary period that the FED will spray even more money across the economy.

So yeah, free money is never free. The question just becomes which generation pays for it?

Here’s my thing, do you anticipate that American fiscal institutions, our taxing authority, and the long-run productive capacity of the nation’s economy will collapse in the next 10-20 years? Do you forsee an exodus on US Treasuries in the bond market in the next 25 years, and if so, to where?

There really is not a good argument for why debt is directly tied to economic health, and while on-book and off-book liabilities aren’t entirely immaterial, they require some context to actually know whether they are of concern. And right now, or in the medium to long term(next couple decades), I don’t see it.

Venezuela has maintained a relatively low debt to GDP ratio for decades, but I would be more concerned about their long-term economic and fiscal health because they are so wholly dependent on the oil sector and its handling of their market structure has been faulty, therefore making it a rather unstable country. One where people are not as confident in their long-term economic output and therefore taking on their long-term bonds.

We actually had a higher debt to GDP ratio in the late 1940’s and I don’t think anyone would argue that debt wasn’t worth it, especially since it next followed one of the longest and strongest periods of growth in modern history with us standing atop as the world hegemon. And because of that wise debt we actually made it easier to take steps to pay it down with the growth generated.

Which gets to the next point. Natural inflation and growth make the long-term burden of debt much less. As long as you are spending on worthwhile things that you can demonstrate are improving the economic output of your society and result as such, like investments in infrastructure, scientific endeavors, demand shortfall in recessionary periods through various make work and social safety net programs, wealth transfers that improve underlying social and economic health. that’s good debt spending that should actually make it easier to bring down debt long-term through greater economic output in the short through the long-term. While also keeping the confidence in your overall production capacity as a country high. It’s really when you take paradoxical measures that put downward pressure, inexplicably do nothing but reduce confidence(see debt ceiling), or are simply worthless measures that actually threaten the underlying long-term health(tax cuts and loopholes to wealthy people and businesses that don’t need it as a wealth gap continues to rise, or resisting immigration as a country with low or negative native birth rates), that you really shoot yourself in your own foot.

As for inflation, it’s the last thing I am worried about right now. In fact, we are actually in need of some inflation as a deflationary spiral is much more pressing as the virus continues to linger. It would be a great problem to have if in a year or two what we are really worried about is an economy overheating from a surge in growth that we need to ramp up interest rates and jiggle the money supply. That is actually a far easier problem to anticipate and address than a deflationary one.

 

[DaveXA]

South Carolina moving to phase 2.

I'm wondering what their criteria was for moving to phase 2? Did they use the CDC issued guidance? If not, how are they making decisions?