COVID-19 Outbreak (Update: More than 2.9M cases and 132,313 deaths in US) (6 Viewers)

[Arathrael]

Good question. I have a theory. Actually a couple. One, the relative health of the kids. That's purely a guess, and I tend to think it's not that.

The other, which I would ne be surprised at is the virus is beginning to act differently, and manifest with some different symptoms. Maybe it's mutating or something. I'm not sure, but it seems different than what's been reported in other countries.

It was being reported in the UK a couple of weeks ago: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...new-illness-that-may-be-linked-to-coronavirus

Other cases from other countries were also reported, with mention of cases in France, Spain, Italy and Switzerland, along with the US: https://www.theguardian.com/society...f-rare-syndrome-in-children-reported-globally

There's also a short article in The Lancet from last week which gives more details on the cluster of eight children with hyperinflammatory shock in mid-April. It notes they were all previously fit and well. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31094-1/fulltext

That particular paediatric ICU has now seen more than 20 children with similar clinical presentation.

 

[Arathrael]

Going to share this link to a blog by a doctor - it's a bit lengthy, but it is a great resource for information about how the disease is spread and prevention measures in places like work environments, outside jogging, going to a restaurant, shopping at a mall, etc.

Effective mix of science and practical application, imo

I think it's worth the read and maybe bookmarking or printing up as a reference. I expect I will be coming back to it more than once, personally.

And it is being updated, too - as recently as an hour ago of my posting here

The Risks - Know Them - Avoid Them

Please read this link to learn about the author and background to these posts. It seems many people are breathing some relief, and I’m not sure why. An epidemic curve has a relatively predictable upslope and once the peak is reached, the back slope can also be predicted. We have robust data from...

www.erinbromage.com

It's a very good read.

I would just say that it has a couple of minor inaccuracies in it though, leading to it inadvertently possibly understating the risk of outdoor transmission.

The writer states, "Importantly, of the countries performing contact tracing properly, only a single outbreak has been reported from an outdoor environment (less than 0.3% of traced infections)."

This is an inaccurate reflection of the source given and somewhat misleading. The source given only addresses case reports from China, not worldwide, and there's an inherent bias towards indoor transmission in the study; that's literally the focus of the paper. It covers 4th January to 11th February, with expanding lockdown measures being enacted particularly in the latter half of that period, and many outdoor events not taking place during that period anyway (e.g. the Chinese Super League runs from February to October), and it's focused on outbreaks (3 or more cases linked with specific venues). Taken together that produces a strong selection bias towards transmission taking place indoors, regardless of the background relative risk. As the paper describes, that covered 318 outbreaks involving 1,245 individuals, which is just 17% of the 7,324 cases which met their requirements for consideration.

Basically, any outdoor transmission that is taking place, especially when there are few outdoor venues open or events taking place, is likely to be happenstance, and is going to be inherently harder to detect through contact tracing. Hence, you can't look at contact tracing and say, "this shows it isn't happening."

I mention it mainly because I've seen the same study being cited elsewhere as evidence to support an assertion that outdoor activities, including large gathering and sporting events, are essentially zero risk. To be clear, this blog does not do that (and nor does the Vox article that blog links to, which quotes a virologist stating that "while we can’t say there’s zero risk, it’s likely low unless you are engaging in activities as part of a large crowd (such as a protest)") but the blog does seem to be making the same error as taking that study to show something it does not, which is unfortunate.

I'm possibly a bit sensitive to this after we had the UK Deputy Chief Medical Officer making arguments along those lines to justify allowing the Cheltenham Races Festival (10th-13th March) and Liverpool - Atletico Madrid game (11th March) to go ahead.

Anyway. the general point - that there is less risk outdoors than indoors - remains valid, but I think it bears emphasising that it isn't no risk, especially in crowds, and the advice in both the blog and the Vox article should be heeded: wear a mask.

 

[St. Geezy]

I don't know why I subject myself to Facebook anymore. It amazes me just how many people that I know, many of whom received the same education I did and had similar backgrounds as I have, are so anti-virus (no pun). Like, this isn't a matter of opinion; the facts are the facts and you can't just "not believe in it" to keep yourself safe.

I get the arguments about the economy and all, and have stated many times in this thread that we need to figure out a way around this thing so that we can safely re-open for that very reason, but my FB feed takes that sentiment to a whole new level, where people are all but pretending this thing does not exist.

Rant over.

 

[St. Geezy]

Worldwide coronavirus cases cross 4 million; more than 2,500 new cases in Florida since reopening Monday

The novel coronavirus pandemic has now killed more than 279,000 people worldwide. Over 4 million people across the world have been diagnosed with COVID-19, the disease caused by the new respiratory virus, according to data compiled by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns...

www.yahoo.com

 

[James Spader]

I don't know why I subject myself to Facebook anymore. It amazes me just how many people that I know, many of whom received the same education I did and had similar backgrounds as I have, are so anti-virus (no pun). Like, this isn't a matter of opinion; the facts are the facts and you can't just "not believe in it" to keep yourself safe.

I get the arguments about the economy and all, and have stated many times in this thread that we need to figure out a way around this thing so that we can safely re-open for that very reason, but my FB feed takes that sentiment to a whole new level, where people are all but pretending this thing does not exist.

Rant over.

You must like pain, lol.

 

[Brennan77]

Okay so for those playing at home, tonight's thread de-railing will be: porn versus contact tracing.

If you had that on your card, you can collect your prize at the SR Shop link above.

I immediately deleted that but not fast enough apparently. I hope you won.

 

[UncleTrvlingJim]

So, trying to figure out the reticence to having your name recorded at a place of business for the government to use within a limited capacity.

I assume it's caused by the idea that the value in accurate contact tracing is outweighed by some sort of harm caused by the place of business recording your name that might at some point be turned over to the government, right?

I'm curious if this is because the value of accurate contact tracing is not clear enough, or if it's because the fear of harm from the government is high. If it's the latter, are there safeguards and regulations that can be put in place to assuage those concerns?

I assume most people would want to be notified if they were say at a restaurant sitting next to someone who it turns out has COVID-19. If nothing else, so they can be tested and potentially protect loved ones from getting sick. But I might be off in assigning the personal value of contact tracing.

 

[UncleTrvlingJim]

And I'll admit I'm a little frustrated by a lot of this, because we are at such a better place technologically then we were 100 years ago, to control the spread of the virus while still having most of the economy going, but it requires just about 100% society buy in and we can't get there.

 

[RazorOye]

It's a very good read.

I would just say that it has a couple of minor inaccuracies in it though, leading to it inadvertently possibly understating the risk of outdoor transmission.

Anyway. the general point - that there is less risk outdoors than indoors - remains valid, but I think it bears emphasising that it isn't no risk, especially in crowds, and the advice in both the blog and the Vox article should be heeded: wear a mask.

thanks for the reply

I'll add that my takeaway for outdoor transmissions was more a matter of practicality for the reader.

That is, "Can I go jogging safely and what might the risks be?" or "Can I take my kids to a hiking trail?"

Not, "Can I attend this concert."

I mean, the breakout in northern Italy, from what I understand, stemmed from a major soccer game. I didn't feel like the author was saying that going to a concert or soccer game or rib fest was probably safe. And you seemed to pick up on that, too.

Plus, it's not like there are a lot of open air concerts and festivals and such to attend, anyway. They just cancelled the CNE Exhibition here which is usually a big deal for the city in the summer and the local rib fest was cancelled in favor of an online fundraiser for the local Rotary club.

 

[Saint_Ward]

So speaking loudly, close proximity for 2.5 hours and a big group made for the perfect recipe of spread.

Can't wait to go to a Saints game.

Muffled yelling.. everyone in masks....

 

[St. Geezy]

And I'll admit I'm a little frustrated by a lot of this, because we are at such a better place technologically then we were 100 years ago, to control the spread of the virus while still having most of the economy going, but it requires just about 100% society buy in and we can't get there.

I think it is totally possible, but unfortunately, our nation's setup can sometimes be a gift and a curse.

There are too many mixed messages out there from leadership - city mayors, state governors, senators, the President, etc. If all of our leadership figures were all on one page and preaching the same consistent message, opening up society safely to keep the economy going and getting 100% buy-in from citizens is totally doable.

Even just the President being consistent with his message and less of a lightning rod and seemingly fully all-in on one side without looking at things from both perspectives would have a trickle-down effect on how society responds. Instead, it has become a bipartisan, "you're either with us or against us" thing, to where very few are trying to see both angles, thus creating a fractured and inconsistent public response. And what this also does is creates a dynamic where the people that aren't paying close attention and prefer not to be bothered by anything news-related, or, the types that are just flat-out not smart people, are also treating this like nothing, since the message is mixed and they'd rather not be inconvenienced, so they too err on the side of "this is no big deal," putting themselves and others in harm's way.

Now granted, I'm not advocating for a dictatorship or anything close to it by any means and never will; I am just saying, this foundation we have, where states and cities all make their own choices, breeds this sort of response in a pandemic crisis and is what makes this whole thing almost impossible to manage properly on a national scale. If I drive 20 miles, to the next city over, I am literally under a whole different set of rules based on a whole different person's standards or level of care for the virus and/or economy.

Attitude reflects leadership, and our leadership is all over the place on this topic, and as a result, so are we.

 

[Goatman Saint]

I’m all for the vitamin D. While I am certainly no expert in it, nor am I going to claim to be, I do notice the winters when I get sicker are the years I don’t take my vitamin D supplement. Yes, my blood work shows I am low as I don’t drink milk, and most any time I’m outside I wear pants, at least a TShirt and hat, not exposing near enough skin to the sun. Since this started I got back on my Vitamin D supplement and have been spending more time in the sun. I mean it seems to keep me healthy at other times, why not now?

 

[UncleTrvlingJim]

I think it is totally possible, but unfortunately, our nation's setup can sometimes be a gift and a curse.

There are too many mixed messages out there from leadership - city mayors, state governors, senators, the President, etc. If all of our leadership figures were all on one page and preaching the same consistent message, opening up society safely to keep the economy going and getting 100% buy-in from citizens is totally doable.

Even just the President being consistent with his message and less of a lightning rod and seemingly fully all-in on one side without looking at things from both perspectives would have a trickle-down effect on how society responds. Instead, it has become a bipartisan, "you're either with us or against us" thing, to where very few are trying to see both angles, thus creating a fractured and inconsistent public response. And what this also does is creates a dynamic where the people that aren't paying close attention and prefer not to be bothered by anything news-related, or, the types that are just not flat out not smart people, are also treating this like nothing, since the message is mixed and they'd rather not be inconvenienced, so they too err on the side of "this is no big deal," putting themselves and others in harm's way.

Now granted, I'm not advocating for a dictatorship or anything close to it by any means and never will; I am just saying, this foundation we have, where states and cities all make their own choices, breeds this sort of response in a pandemic crisis and is what makes this whole thing almost impossible to manage properly on a national scale. If I drive 20 miles, to the next city over, I am literally under a whole different set of rules based on a whole different person's standards or level of care for the virus and/or economy.

Attitude reflects leadership, and our leadership is all over the place on this topic, and as a result, so are we.

I certainly think that leadership has a lot to do with it, and we're kind of at an all time low in trust with our leaders it seems.

I also think it's a bit deeper than that. A lot of American ideals and culture is wrapped up in the idea of the rugged individualist, distrust in government, etc. That can and has led to a lot of great things, but it can also be detrimental in trying to plan a large scale response that requires everyone mostly buying into a few key actions.

 

[UncleTrvlingJim]

I’m all for the vitamin D. While I am certainly no expert in it, nor am I going to claim to be, I do notice the winters when I get sicker are the years I don’t take my vitamin D supplement. Yes, my blood work shows I am low as I don’t drink milk, and most any time I’m outside I wear pants, at least a TShirt and hat, not exposing near enough skin to the sun. Since this started I got back on my Vitamin D supplement and have been spending more time in the sun. I mean it seems to keep me healthy at other times, why not now?

Yeah, my blood work consistently shows low vitamin D, so I'm supposed to take it all the time anyway. I often wonder if the recommendations are based of correlations vs causations... but it's also a low cost issue for me.

 

[Goatman Saint]

Yeah, my blood work consistently shows low vitamin D, so I'm supposed to take it all the time anyway. I often wonder if the recommendations are based of correlations vs causations... but it's also a low cost issue for me.

I’ve always wondered that also, about a lot more than vitamin D. I look at the Costco sized mega vitamins my wife got me (which I don’t take) and wonder how much of it is really needed, and how much of it is just junk science. But, that’s a different issue, and one that is argued routinely by people. With this stuff though, eh they say vitamin D is a plus, ok that works. Advil may mess up the immune system, ok I’ll take asprin occasionally. The more you go out, the higher your risk. Ok, I’ll live in my back yard and wear a mask in public. My natural inverted personality was made for this