K Wil Lutz traded to the Broncos for a 2024 7th round pick (1 Viewer)

[Bill]

So where will the "Grupe's Groupies" section be in the Dome?

It's gotta be behind the uprights so that the TV camera will always pick up the reaction of the fan club... whether the kick is good or not.

 

[Waymer]

Grupe has looked great, but the main thing that worries me is that he wasn't that great in college. I don't know if he's made some adjustments to his kicking style, but it is hard to change that muscle memory.

I have no clue if Grupe will work out or not, but the best kickers in the NFL seem to have generally made a decent to substantial leap once they hit the NFL. I just did a quick glance, and these are the Top 10 career FG% leaders in the NFL, along with their college FG% noted second.

Justin Tucker: 90.5 / 83.3
Y. Koo: 89.0 / 89.7
D. Carlson: 88.2 / 80.7
H. Butker: 88.1 / 71.7
M. Gay: 87.8 / 86.2
J. Lambo: 87.1 / 84.0
M. Vanderjagt: 86.4 / 84.4
R. Gould: 86.5 / 63.9
K. Forbath: 86.3 / 84.2
S. Gostkowski: 86.3 / 76.1

A lot of variance. Some within a few points but worse, and some many points away. Only Koo was actually better in college from a straight numbers standpoint.

Of course with wider hashmarks and less indoor stadiums, it's expected college that stats could be worse as well. In fact, of all those with college % over 80 in the list above, nearly all played in southern states/conferences (Texas - Tucker, GT - Koo , Auburn - Carlson, Utah - Gay, Texas A&M - Lambo, UCLA Forbath). Doesn't guarantee anything, as Butker also went to GT. But maybe that is part of it, but who the heck knows?

All said, we'll see how it works out, but I'm less concerned about college than I am how Grupe reacts when he misses a big kick or two in a row...because it will happen eventually. Justin Tucker has missed twice in a game six times, and that seems almost impossible given how often we see him drill big shots. He has even missed twice in a playoff game where his team lost. If Grupe can handle those situations, I think he (and any kicker) can succeed.

 

[Quiet Storm]

When I saw this I immediately thought of your posts in the Gameday thread.

 

[DeuceMcAllisterFan]

I have no clue if Grupe will work out or not, but the best kickers in the NFL seem to have generally made a decent to substantial leap once they hit the NFL. I just did a quick glance, and these are the Top 10 career FG% leaders in the NFL, along with their college FG% noted second.

Justin Tucker: 90.5 / 83.3
Y. Koo: 89.0 / 89.7
D. Carlson: 88.2 / 80.7
H. Butker: 88.1 / 71.7
M. Gay: 87.8 / 86.2
J. Lambo: 87.1 / 84.0
M. Vanderjagt: 86.4 / 84.4
R. Gould: 86.5 / 63.9
K. Forbath: 86.3 / 84.2
S. Gostkowski: 86.3 / 76.1

A lot of variance. Some within a few points but worse, and some many points away. Only Koo was actually better in college from a straight numbers standpoint.

Of course with wider hashmarks and less indoor stadiums, it's expected college that stats could be worse as well. In fact, of all those with college % over 80 in the list above, nearly all played in southern states/conferences (Texas - Tucker, GT - Koo , Auburn - Carlson, Utah - Gay, Texas A&M - Lambo, UCLA Forbath). Doesn't guarantee anything, as Butker also went to GT. But maybe that is part of it, but who the heck knows?

All said, we'll see how it works out, but I'm less concerned about college than I am how Grupe reacts when he misses a big kick or two in a row...because it will happen eventually. Justin Tucker has missed twice in a game six times, and that seems almost impossible given how often we see him drill big shots. He has even missed twice in a playoff game where his team lost. If Grupe can handle those situations, I think he (and any kicker) can succeed.

College isnt a good use of statistics to project NFL success since the college kickers aren't usually refined in terms of techniques and training. A lot of good college kickers flame out for this very reason and a lot of small school kickers end up making huge jumps to the NFL game once they refine their techniques.

 

[St. Geezy]

Grupe has looked great, but the main thing that worries me is that he wasn't that great in college. I don't know if he's made some adjustments to his kicking style, but it is hard to change that muscle memory.

College kicking is a lot more difficult than NFL kicking. Different and more harsher hash marks, and a lot less competent snap, hold, and blocking operation.

A lot of NFL kickers had substandard college stats.

These numbers are from several years ago, so it has a lot of old names, but it’ll help give you an idea.

 

[Scorpius the Allfather]

DA will ruin this team and we will lose a horrible division smfh.

Man, you just add nothing of value to any discussion. In fact, it's all a detriment. Time to pull the rip cord.

 

[Scorpius the Allfather]

Lutz is not big nutz lutz anymore, he cost the team minimum of two wins last season with once upon a time automatic kicks.

He also started his career off shaky.

 

[Scorpius the Allfather]

Lets just hope this doesn't turn into another Hopkins vs Hocker situation for us where we chose the wrong one..

That was much different, here they both were great whereas Hopkins was clearly better than Hocker except for their final game where Hocker did better. Thing is, Payton outsmarts himself on occasion.

 

[Waymer]

College isnt a good use of statistics to project NFL success since the college kickers aren't usually refined in terms of techniques and training. A lot of good college kickers flame out for this very reason and a lot of small school kickers end up making huge jumps to the NFL game once they refine their techniques.

Exactly, that's the general point. That the great ones show improvement and frankly some Groza award candidates and winners, etc do nothing.

 

[Chopper Man]

I hope the kid doesn't have to make an open field tackle, if so he will get destroyed.

 

[Scorpius the Allfather]

In 2016, we had three games where a blocked field goal or extra point was returned for a TD or 2-point conversion that was the difference in the game (NYG, CAR, DEN).

I'll give Lutz a pass on the DEN one that year b/c the guy stepped out of bounds on the return AND the dude who blocked it did the "leap over the line" maneuver that would be declared illegal the next year, but it sure seemed like the dude had more blocked kicks than most.

I'm pretty sure we didn't give up 3 block kicks for points, that was just the Denver game.

 

[nakadish]

DA will ruin this team and we will lose a horrible division smfh.

Remind again how much talent the Saints had on offense when DA took over from Payton?

This is a much much better team now than the one Payton left DA with.

 

[LordPoopington]

I'm pretty sure we didn't give up 3 block kicks for points, that was just the Denver game.

We absolutely did vs. the Giants.

New Orleans Saints at New York Giants - September 18th, 2016 | Pro-Football-Reference.com

New Orleans Saints 13 at New York Giants 16 on September 18th, 2016 - Full team and player stats and box score

www.pro-football-reference.com

I was a bit off about the road game vs. CAR. In that one CAR returned a blocked field goal 73 yards to set up a TD. Didn't score on the blocked FG return but it undoubtedly led to the TD.

 

[Scorpius the Allfather]

I wouldn't doubt Lutz sets the new field goal distance record in mile-high.

He's not going to make a 67 yard field goal, I'll bet money on it.

 

[Scorpius the Allfather]

We absolutely did vs. the Giants.

New Orleans Saints at New York Giants - September 18th, 2016 | Pro-Football-Reference.com

New Orleans Saints 13 at New York Giants 16 on September 18th, 2016 - Full team and player stats and box score

www.pro-football-reference.com

I was a bit off about the road game vs. CAR. In that one CAR returned a blocked field goal 73 yards to set up a TD. Didn't score on the blocked FG return but it undoubtedly led to the TD.

So Denver and the Giants returned for points but not Car. I think I kind of remember the Giants one, but I knew we didn't have 3, that would've been horrible.