Opinion The chance to get a top tier HC has come and gone (14 Viewers)

[Albi]

Goff and Darnold could’ve been had for peanuts. So there’s hope outside of developing a #1 overall rookie into a franchise Qb.

Goff has never been strong in the playoffs. The Rams honestly believed he was the reason they wouldn’t get over the hump and dumped him. He looked so terrible in a Playoff loss, that McVay looked extremely Frustrated on the sidelines. They immediately won a Super Bowl after upgrading.

Sam Darnold look below average in his last two games of the season, in losses to Lions and Rams. I believe it cost him a lot of money, considering he is a free agent.

I don’t think signing an QB is the answer… so I rather have the peanuts. Drafting a QB is the best way to win a Super Bowl, unless you get a Manning or Brady at the twilight of their careers.

I don’t think any coach will help bring us to a SuperBowl with Carr.

 

[SystemShock]

I never said he was top tier.

The “top tier “ coaches this cycle - Ben Johnson - for example didn’t even consider us.

Ben Johnson so good, they are plural.

Ben Johnson is a hot commodity because of the Lions' success the last 2 regular seasons (playoffs, not so much). He's not a "top tier" HC. He's never been a HC. We do not know how he'll do as a HC.

The 2 biggest OC hot commodities I can think of were Norv Turner and Josh McDaniels, both coming from record setting, 3-time SB winning teams. They both failed at HC in multiple places.

Of course, there are other examples of OC who were hot commodities and had success, as well as not-so-hot OCs who had great success (like Payton) but it just comes to show you, you never know how things are going to turn out.

 

[St4ever]

I dont actually see that.

First I would say its nigh impossible to grade the last 3 drafts not really enough data yet...even Jordan Jackson was on a roster in 2024.

But we can grade his drafts from 2006 to 2021. I havent done all the math but when recently perusing the quality of the draft classes over recent years I noticed something. I was in profootball reference and you can pull up a Draft and sort it by Weighted Career Avg. This isnt the best metric but it does give you an idea of how a career has shaped up so far. Its a continuously aggregating number so active players will only get bigger numbers as time goes on.

I think its a reasonable way of looking at a draft class as they arent all the same. I first noticed the phenomena when looking at the 1970 Draft Class which has only 2 HoFers. The Saints selected a WR that was soon traded to Houston with the 10th pick. But the class was fairly shallow and the WR is actually 9th in the draft class when sorting by the above described metric.

But here is the funny thing I noticed. In almost every draft class from Loomis he has some player selected that sorts above or about where his first pick was. In many drafts his best pick sorts way above where he made his first selection at. In some drafts such as 2017 he absolutely crushes the draft. Just having perused the data I would speculate that on the whole his drafted average for his best 3 picks from each draft class is WAY WAY above his selection position for those same 3 picks.

Yeah he has some bad draft classes but i think its silly to say he has been bad at drafting (well at least in comparison to reasonable expectations).

If you want we go draft class to draft class and see if my hasty observation is accurate? What draft class do you want to start with?

In most cases we fail when trading up in the first round. Our trades in other rounds seem to work out.

 

[Rouxble]

You have Vrabel ranked higher than McCarthy? Based on what lol.

I think a lot of people had Vrabel ranked high initially because McCarthy wasn’t even available. Vrabel was hired before McCarthy was a true free agent.

I know Vrabel was my top choice until talks between McCarthy and the Cowboys fell apart. If McCarthy was available on day one, he would have been my preferred option on day one.

 

[St4ever]

Goff has never been strong in the playoffs. The Rams honestly believed he was the reason they wouldn’t get over the hump and dumped him. He looked so terrible in a Playoff loss, that McVay looked extremely Frustrated on the sidelines. They immediately won a Super Bowl after upgrading.

Sam Darnold look below average in his last two games of the season, in losses to Lions and Rams. I believe it cost him a lot of money, considering he is a free agent.

I don’t think signing an QB is the answer… so I rather have the peanuts. Drafting a QB is the best way to win a Super Bowl, unless you get a Manning or Brady at the twilight of their careers.

I don’t think any coach will help bring us to a SuperBowl with Carr.

We did not draft Drew Brees

 

[3ParStillDriver]

The Jags GM has been fired, so that lack of interest may not exist anymore.

Maybe. And what about the Raiders? If any franchise interviewing is in dire need of an experienced head coach to create stabilization, its them.

 

[3ParStillDriver]

Weve dodged more HCs than weve missed so far.

There was some inception going on with Glenn. Someone went into the dreams of the folks that matter and planted the idea that Glenn was ready to be a HC. Because, you give me a 4 years DC and their defensive rankings are 32, 29, 20 and 19 - that person is lucky to retain his DC position, not get promoted to HC. He mostly got recognized for the rise of the Lions than actual production. Ben Johnson mightve carried him to a HC job. Johnson also mightve carried Dan Campbell to where he is as well.

Campbell is 8-20 in his coaching career without Johnson. He is 36-15 with him.

So yes, Johnson is a different story. I think we missed out on him. His 3 years as an OC, he ranked top 5 in yards and ppg in all 3.

He is the only one. We just need to dodge Rizzi and we're good. Unless.....

If there is just no one available this year that Loomis is sold on, there is a case for Rizzi. If you dont want your new HC to deal with the mess that is going to be 2025, maybe you let Rizzi have the job. Because he would be an interim turned permanent, his leash is short. You can let him eat the Ls and fire him after 1 year. The cap and roster will be in a better spot and youll likely have a top 5 pick to hand over to a new HC in 2026.

I have a hard time believing Loomis would fire him after 1 year. We had two years of Dennis Allen who was quite literally one of the worst head coaches in history of NFL and Loomis was defending him tooth and nail after year two, and seemed like he was prepared to do the same after year 3 had the owner not stepped in (and to some degree, still did defend him).

I doesn't matter who we take, I think they'll be here for at least 3 years bare minimum even if we go 0-17 in year 1 or 2.

 

[Albi]

We did not draft Drew Brees

Wow, I didn’t know that!

But he’s a rare exception because of a major injury and is a literally a Unicorn.

Name another elite QB that left his original team after a few years and went on to win a Super Bowl? Only veterans with a few seasons left.

I don’t know why more teams don’t follow in Green Bay’s QB path… They had three QBs since 1992 and drafted them all. Is that good?

 

[Rexman100]

I think a lot of people had Vrabel ranked high initially because McCarthy wasn’t even available. Vrabel was hired before McCarthy was a true free agent.

I know Vrabel was my top choice until talks between McCarthy and the Cowboys fell apart. If McCarthy was available on day one, he would have been my preferred option on day one.

I agree, once Mike McCarthy broke loose, our whole immediately pivoted away from AG. Think about how it’s really done for a second. Is ML thinking, hmm, who can I get that the majority of fans will be happy with? Or who will save my arse by winning immediately or at least the following year. GMs don’t get hired to be an intermediary between the team and the fans, they have a job to do. And that win or be fired. The DA move, he bent his process due to the fear of major change. But now that it’s his head on the chopping block. He should be hiring anyone that gets his head off the block. Mike and his regime will at least take the laser target off of ML for now. If he gambles and goes 2-15 with a first year coach, he’ll have no leeway left. Where we know that Mike is taking this team to the playoffs at least by 2026.

 

[St4ever]

The Saints/Glenn hype just seems more of a local media thing to me. Detroit has way more talent on D than the Saints and the best he mustered was 19th ranked in 2023. That offense carries that team, you're just asking the defense to get a few stops per game while the offense cooks teams. Even if you chop up 2024 to injuries, which is very very fair imo.

What Brady has done in Buffalo has been way more impressive. That offense was sputtering hard which caused the OC to get fired after a 5-5 start. Nov 14th of 2023 Brady took over and the offense has looked so much better since. Buffalo sent Diggs packing, a 1183 yard, 8TD WR and still managed to churn out a top 10 in total offense, no. 2 in points, turned Josh Allen into a MVP candidate. Josh Allen has cut his INT's down by over half this year as well, from 14 in '23 to 6 in '24.

I do agree that Brady is doing outstanding things this year but that does not mean he can transition to a HC and continue doing these things. Not against him but he lacks experience even at the OC position. I would be much happier with him as an OC then a HC at this moment.

 

[RJ in Lafayette]

We need to define "top tier." If the term is defined by public perception at the time of hiring--certainly Vrabel and Johnson and for some Glenn--then we have lost out on the "top tier" candidates with the possible exception of Mike McCarthy. If the term is defined by which new coach will prove successful, then we simply need to be thorough and creative in our process and perhaps show some courage in selecting our new coach. I happen to think there are assistants we are interviewing who might prove to be a better head coach than Glenn and even Johnson.

 

[HouseCall]

These threads remind me so much of the tons of threads that pop up immediately after the draft about how the Saints didn’t trade up or trade back or draft this guy or that guy.

It’s a process.

Every job has its pros and cons and some jobs are way more attractive than others.

The Saints job in 2025 is certainly not as attractive as a job with a young QB or youthful roster.

But it’s not terribly less-attractive than it was in 2021. Because now whoever takes the job isn’t following Payton. Allen fell on that sword - and the fact that he was terrible HC makes it a little easier for the next guy.

Johnson was always Chicago
Glenn was a heavy lean to Jets

Who have we missed on and who, in this crop, is top-tier?

 

[44slayer]

I have a hard time believing Loomis would fire him after 1 year. We had two years of Dennis Allen who was quite literally one of the worst head coaches in history of NFL and Loomis was defending him tooth and nail after year two, and seemed like he was prepared to do the same after year 3 had the owner not stepped in (and to some degree, still did defend him).

I doesn't matter who we take, I think they'll be here for at least 3 years bare minimum even if we go 0-17 in year 1 or 2.

The history of interims turned permanent says otherwise. They just arent given the same 2+ year timeline as guys like Allen. Allen was not an interim turned permanent. And Loomis did his usual banging his head against the wall, trying to ego Allen into being something he wasnt.

Im not advocating for this. I think Loomis cant risk hiring Rizzi. If Rizzi flops in year 1, I cant see Loomis surviving 2 HC duds in 4 years. A external hire gives Loomis and the new HC 2+ seasons to figure it out. Rizzi wont get more than 1 if he full flops.

 

[3ParStillDriver]

The history of interims turned permanent says otherwise. They just arent given the same 2+ year timeline as guys like Allen. Allen was not an interim turned permanent. And Loomis did his usual banging his head against the wall, trying to ego Allen into being something he wasnt.

Im not advocating for this. I think Loomis cant risk hiring Rizzi. If Rizzi flops in year 1, I cant see Loomis surviving 2 HC duds in 4 years. A external hire gives Loomis and the new HC 2+ seasons to figure it out. Rizzi wont get more than 1 if he full flops.

Loomis already shown he comes well prepared with an army of excuses and Rizzi will very likely have some measure of success more so then Dennis Allen, which is just another excuse. We could quite literally watch Rizzi go 7-10 and Loomis promote that as a successful first season with his new head coach. But 7-10 to me could be a flop depending on how it occurs.

 

[44slayer]

Loomis already shown he comes well prepared with an army of excuses and Rizzi will very likely have some measure of success more so then Dennis Allen, which is just another excuse. We could quite literally watch Rizzi go 7-10 and Loomis promote that as a successful first season with his new head coach. But 7-10 to me could be a flop depending on how it occurs.

Fair enough there. Loomis is an excuse factory, with some Yogi Berra sensibility.

7 wins with the way this roster is going to look next year is going to be a huge win for the franchise. Whoever the HC is, he should be in the running for coach of the year if he can win 7.

2025 should look like the Lions 3-13 in 2021. If we win 7, we made the right hire.