The Investment Thread (4 Viewers)

[St. Geezy]

Update: AMC ends the day down 9%, deep OTM June 17th calls all have significant gains today.

 

[Turfie]

Holy cow. Also never forget the guy on CNBC who was promoting Upstart on live TV. Then someone asking him what Upstart does….he couldn’t answer it.

 

[Saint_Ward]

Or everyone trading the (excuse me for using the phrase you hate) meme stocks aren't old enough to remember what it's like trading when the Fed is tightening and inflation was an issue or stock values matter. It was a matter of time before Warren Buffet was right and Dave Portnoy was wrong, I mean who could have seen that coming?

This is the dot com bust all over again but rolled into the inflation of the early 1980's. It was so obvious that this was coming. Problem was, it took forever for the bubble to pop. Every time the Fed tries to increase rates for the last few decades the markets pop because the other 8 out of 10 years the FED is busy blowing bubbles.

Trying to time it is next to impossible other than just by following the fed. This time the only way the Fed can act is at the cost to the American taxpayers. It's the situation the so many have been warning about for years. I've learned so much through this covid swing and hopeful next time I'll be able to capitalize. Just have to wait until the next crisis pops up. I'm just really upset I haven't been in long term puts since November. Oh well, live and learn. I managed to stay well in the green the last 6 months and if I can find some buying opportunities then I'll be really happy and can quit playing hourly, daily and weekly swings. It's easy to make money when you buy good companies at low prices. Outside of a couple months during covid, I haven't seen it since the financial crisis. It's like a near constant bubble or bust situation in the markets the last 24 years.

What worries me, the VIX still isn't showing signs of peaking, the daily crashes keep getting bigger and today was the first day we actually saw every index and commodity, bond market and crypto all bleeding today for the first time. Charts also indicate we're going lower and it's happening without any sort of black swan or economic data trending down.

Yeah, people are just pulling money out everywhere. Eventually, it will go back somewhere. the question is, where?

 

[Turfie]

Day after day. But I posted a clip of talking heads blaming retail for holding. Then Fox News blamed it on retail selling. I think retail is still buying. But I know this Fidelity chart has severe limitations. But I’d like to know how much retail is pulling out.

 

[bclemms]

Yeah, people are just pulling money out everywhere. Eventually, it will go back somewhere. the question is, where?

I really feel like one more bloodbath is in store. One that triggers some stoppages in major indexes. Only thing we are missing is the panic selling.

Could be wrong though, markets could drop another 40% and before hitting historical averages. They would have to get cut in half again to hit prices in the early 80’s when inflation was last this high.

I’m not sure we see a big bounce and rally like the last two big sell offs. During Covid and the financial crisis the sharp v recovery was marked by the FED dropping rates and taking on rapid expansion only money supply. FED can’t do that this time because of inflation so this may just continue to be slow motion disaster.

My best guess is we see some sharp up and down bounces before we reach a point where markets start to consolidate sideways on a key support level and then get a big rally. I’m really uncertain though. If inflation doesn’t slow and supply chain issues don’t start to ease, equities are going to be tough.

Tesla has weathered the supply chain issues better than anyone but they had to stop production due to a lack of wire harnesses. That’s a really bad sign.

 

[Saint_Ward]

I really feel like one more bloodbath is in store. One that triggers some stoppages in major indexes. Only thing we are missing is the panic selling.

Could be wrong though, markets could drop another 40% and before hitting historical averages. They would have to get cut in half again to hit prices in the early 80’s when inflation was last this high.

I’m not sure we see a big bounce and rally like the last two big sell offs. During Covid and the financial crisis the sharp v recovery was marked by the FED dropping rates and taking on rapid expansion only money supply. FED can’t do that this time because of inflation so this may just continue to be slow motion disaster.

My best guess is we see some sharp up and down bounces before we reach a point where markets start to consolidate sideways on a key support level and then get a big rally. I’m really uncertain though. If inflation doesn’t slow and supply chain issues don’t start to ease, equities are going to be tough.

Tesla has weathered the supply chain issues better than anyone but they had to stop production due to a lack of wire harnesses. That’s a really bad sign.

I agree with the back half. I think we're in for some volatility for a while, but the trend will be slowly downwards, but probably a lot of sideways action for a while until the supply chain issues work themselves out. It's going to be a spotty situation for the next year or so. The bigger concern, to me, is the places that lost talent/experience and suddenly just can't produce good stuff anymore. Material shortages will work themselves out, and have been. And the big players will navigate it better, so long as they're smart about it, because they have the purchasing power to get to the front of the line.

 

[where yat brah]

CRON up 18%.
I go to the search page and:

"No news to report."

 

[St. Geezy]

 

[Turfie]

Hedges are extra angry today.

 

[Turfie]

 

[St. Geezy]

Hedges are extra angry today.

It's like they set out a goal this month to bankrupt these "problem" companies. Unreal.

 

[Turfie]

The amount of panic buying is through the roof I bet

 

[Cage1]

We're a Putin assassination away from the market roaring back.

 

[St. Geezy]

So this is interesting...SOFI tanked 18%, down to $4.87, and just got a news halt.

Announcement coming regarding student loans, perhaps?

 

[St. Geezy]

It's being classified as a T-1 halt, which I think specifically pertains to the pending release of material news.