The Investment Thread (3 Viewers)

[bclemms]

Yeah playing puts is tough to gauge in this zone. You sense it’s getting close to a bottom, but it feels like the same was said two months ago.

Oh, I still think we are closer to the top than the bottom if the economy starts to contract before inflation comes down. At that point a full out deep recession and one that is long lasting without fed intervention will become truth instead of fear. Let GDP slide a little, a few companies start reporting profits getting beat up by inflation and then a few more companies start laying off people to try and bring costs down.

At the same time, if the fed tightening starts to bring down inflation and China recovers from Covid taking stress off the supply chain then betting against the US consumer is dumb and will end badly. We are just at a crossroads. Usually I like crossroads but this one will play out in slow motion so it really doesn't have a timeline that I can straddle. I'll find other plays in the coming days but they'll be much less macro.

I've still got my calls in ERJ and keep adding every time the market beats them up. Grabbed some AAL calls again yesterday. Picked up Netflix again yesterday afternoon but dumped them this morning in premarket after hearing the inflation numbers. Netflix is so cheap right now but not if revenue is shrinking while inflation is soaring. Was really hoping CPI would come in around 7.7% signaling a peak that has passed. Instead we got indicators of a plateau and 8% isn't sustainable very long.

 

[Turfie]

I’ve never seen a stock finish the day at 93% buys. GME sitting at 94% right now.

 

[SaintInBucLand]

Rivian about to go sub $20, earnings to be posted after market close.

 

[bclemms]

Small caps now below precovid highs and still have a lot of downward momentum.

The sell off in small caps is now bigger than the sell off during covid.

Major support is still another 10% away on the R2k.

 

[Turfie]

8,399 buy orders to 433 sell orders for GME. Are hedge funds or other institutions getting margin called? Or they are just unloading their positions.

I think it’s collateral or margin related.

 

[bclemms]

8,399 buy orders to 433 sell orders for GME. Are hedge funds or other institutions getting margin called? Or they are just unloading their positions.

I think it’s collateral or margin related.

If you are only looking at Fidelity it's like looking in the dome during a Saints game and concluding the Saints have more fans than all the other teams combined.

 

[johnw412601]

If you are only looking at Fidelity it's like looking in the dome during a Saints game and concluding the Saints have more fans than all the other teams combined.

I agree but where else can you find the buy/sell orders for a stock for a given day? I'm a small 1x GME holder and 2xx AMC holder and I have other stocks but that's the majority of my portfolio. All in all I don't have but 5000 in stock. I look to this site more than Reddit for insight into market but I'm a newbie and am curious as to what you think is going to happen and should I continue to buy now or just hold and wait or sell? I know you can't give FA, and am not asking for it, just was wondering where else I can get info and data about the market that is reliable. I trust half to none of what I see on Reddit but none of what I read on MSM

 

[Turfie]

If you are only looking at Fidelity it's like looking in the dome during a Saints game and concluding the Saints have more fans than all the other teams combined.

There are major limitations. But it’s where I get the sentiment of the retail investor. As the poster above me said - I wish I had more resources to use.

 

[bclemms]

I agree but where else can you find the buy/sell orders for a stock for a given day? I'm a small 1x GME holder and 2xx AMC holder and I have other stocks but that's the majority of my portfolio. All in all I don't have but 5000 in stock. I look to this site more than Reddit for insight into market but I'm a newbie and am curious as to what you think is going to happen and should I continue to buy now or just hold and wait or sell? I know you can't give FA, and am not asking for it, just was wondering where else I can get info and data about the market that is reliable. I trust half to none of what I see on Reddit but none of what I read on MSM

I've put my thoughts out there before and I'll give you my honest thoughts but they are going to sound like I have this superiority complex and I'm part of the conspiracy even though I am rooting for everyone I'm about to talk about. I think documentaries and blockbuster movies are going to be made about the absolutely amazing short squeeze a bunch of mostly young traders were able to pull off against major hedge funds. Those that were in before the squeeze made a massive fortune. They hit a historical level home run and made one of the most unlikely plays in the history of the financial world. They won.

That documentary is also going to be full of hedge managers talking about how they infiltrated reddit and helped get momentum going behind a bunch of other stocks that were heavily shorted for a squeeze play in order to prevent the focus on just one or two stocks from driving up even farther. Then they will talk about all the pump and dumping they did on that forum milking people dry. The saddest part of the whole documentary will be talking about apes and diamond hands. It'll discuss how they were duped using many of the same tactics and misinformation that other conspiracy groups used. Finding bad guys to blame, blaming the "MSM", claiming to be the sole keepers of the truth and pretty much everything else that happened in 2020 and continues today. Not all of them will be bad guys, many ultimately just bought the illusion. There is always going to be some truth to dirty tactics in the markets because it's a dirty market. Comedy will come in when guys like Dave Portnoy and other influencers became the go to for stock tips and stock plays using rocket and moon emojis while they were making fun of people like Warren Buffet. The documentary will talk about how social media and bots were used as psychological weapons to convince people not to sell stock of companies that were massively in debt with increasing negative revenue but to continue buying them on the way back down in this to the moon fantasy. This will go hand in hand with the crypto bust even though crypto will recover after most of the sheet coins are wiped out and real world uses continue to evolve.

It'll talk about the perfect storm of free money from covid, people being stuck at home becoming day traders, an entire political party built off of conspiracy theories and alternative media groups selling an alternative reality. This sets up the perfect storm for the short squeeze to take place but also sets up the perfect environment for massive funds to use the exact same tactics to take all that covid money from the young, old and poor. The mantra of buy the dip makes a lot of people a lot of money until the bubble pops then there are so many dips the markets only drop 10% before nobody has money left to buy the dip and it becomes a replay of 1929 when everyone is all in on the market and there is nowhere else to go but straight down. Like every other bust in history, it's going to look super obvious in hindsight but impossible for most to see in real time when the money and excitement is flying around.

Actually, I would make this documentary if I had the connections to find the people I would need.

With all that said. AMC price has come down so much that the stock price is only about 300% higher than average in the entertainment industry. So more than likely it's going to keep having these pump and dump fake runs and eventually be forgotten about and settle back down to around $5/share. It'll eventually look like a company that is struggling to maintain it's place in modern society with massive amounts of debt and revenue that can't keep up while those debt prices soar with inflation. At least GME doesn't hold debt but at the end of the day it'll look like a brick and mortar retail location similar to blockbuster. The cloud based gaming platform they are trying to build is their only hope and even if they are able to compete with the likes of Sony, Amazon, Google, Apple and Microsoft (unlikely) then the mega companies will just hire some lobbyists, break some antitrust laws and put GME out of business by either charging them to access games and pricing them out of the market or something similar to the way itunes and Google Play have stuck it to everyone else on the planet. Eventually they'll lose a class action suit for a few hundreds million that is almost completely captured by attorneys but it'll be pennies on the dollar compared to what they made eliminating the competition.

The tech stocks is just a repeat of the dot com bust. Filled with a bunch of people screaming it's different this time and being sold this illusion of the future that will suddenly justify the stock prices of single companies that are greater than the entire market in which they are attempting to capture. People getting sucked into great companies but at prices that are simply not realistic. A handful of companies will come out the other side and make it. Players like Amazon, TSLA and Apple. The other 99% will crash and maybe in a decade the stocks will recover the all time highs but most will go bust. The smart money jumped in, played the momentum up and bailed. The rest will just be bag holders chasing FOMO, YOLO or MOMO.

The environment in November reminded me of the stripper scene in the Big Short. It's that obvious and has been for quite some time but it's hard to bet against a huge bubble that seemingly never stops running. The FED's hand being forced against inflation is going to be the ultimate needle. I even said that at least a dozen times on this very thread. Stuff like, "Easiest play ever is going to be shorting crypto as soon as the Feds mention tightening" yet even I got suckered out of the easiest play in history after watching the squeezes and bubble going insane.

I sure hope I'm wrong. That's my opinion though.

 

[johnw412601]

I've put my thoughts out there before and I'll give you my honest thoughts but they are going to sound like I have this superiority complex and I'm part of the conspiracy even though I am rooting for everyone I'm about to talk about. I think documentaries and blockbuster movies are going to be made about the absolutely amazing short squeeze a bunch of mostly young traders were able to pull off against major hedge funds. Those that were in before the squeeze made a massive fortune. They hit a historical level home run and made one of the most unlikely plays in the history of the financial world. They won.

That documentary is also going to be full of hedge managers talking about how they infiltrated reddit and helped get momentum going behind a bunch of other stocks that were heavily shorted for a squeeze play in order to prevent the focus on just one or two stocks from driving up even farther. Then they will talk about all the pump and dumping they did on that forum milking people dry. The saddest part of the whole documentary will be talking about apes and diamond hands. It'll discuss how they were duped using many of the same tactics and misinformation that other conspiracy groups used. Finding bad guys to blame, blaming the "MSM", claiming to be the sole keepers of the truth and pretty much everything else that happened in 2020 and continues today. Not all of them will be bad guys, many ultimately just bought the illusion. There is always going to be some truth to dirty tactics in the markets because it's a dirty market. Comedy will come in when guys like Dave Portnoy and other influencers became the go to for stock tips and stock plays using rocket and moon emojis while they were making fun of people like Warren Buffet. The documentary will talk about how social media and bots were used as psychological weapons to convince people not to sell stock of companies that were massively in debt with increasing negative revenue but to continue buying them on the way back down in this to the moon fantasy. This will go hand in hand with the crypto bust even though crypto will recover after most of the sheet coins are wiped out and real world uses continue to evolve.

It'll talk about the perfect storm of free money from covid, people being stuck at home becoming day traders, an entire political party built off of conspiracy theories and alternative media groups selling an alternative reality. This sets up the perfect storm for the short squeeze to take place but also sets up the perfect environment for massive funds to use the exact same tactics to take all that covid money from the young, old and poor. The mantra of buy the dip makes a lot of people a lot of money until the bubble pops then there are so many dips the markets only drop 10% before nobody has money left to buy the dip and it becomes a replay of 1929 when everyone is all in on the market and there is nowhere else to go but straight down. Like every other bust in history, it's going to look super obvious in hindsight but impossible for most to see in real time when the money and excitement is flying around.

Actually, I would make this documentary if I had the connections to find the people I would need.

With all that said. AMC price has come down so much that the stock price is only about 300% higher than average in the entertainment industry. So more than likely it's going to keep having these pump and dump fake runs and eventually be forgotten about and settle back down to around $5/share. It'll eventually look like a company that is struggling to maintain it's place in modern society with massive amounts of debt and revenue that can't keep up while those debt prices soar with inflation. At least GME doesn't hold debt but at the end of the day it'll look like a brick and mortar retail location similar to blockbuster. The cloud based gaming platform they are trying to build is their only hope and even if they are able to compete with the likes of Sony, Amazon, Google, Apple and Microsoft (unlikely) then the mega companies will just hire some lobbyists, break some antitrust laws and put GME out of business by either charging them to access games and pricing them out of the market or something similar to the way itunes and Google Play have stuck it to everyone else on the planet. Eventually they'll lose a class action suit for a few hundreds million that is almost completely captured by attorneys but it'll be pennies on the dollar compared to what they made eliminating the competition.

The tech stocks is just a repeat of the dot com bust. Filled with a bunch of people screaming it's different this time and being sold this illusion of the future that will suddenly justify the stock prices of single companies that are greater than the entire market in which they are attempting to capture. People getting sucked into great companies but at prices that are simply not realistic. A handful of companies will come out the other side and make it. Players like Amazon, TSLA and Apple. The other 99% will crash and maybe in a decade the stocks will recover the all time highs but most will go bust. The smart money jumped in, played the momentum up and bailed. The rest will just be bag holders chasing FOMO, YOLO or MOMO.

The environment in November reminded me of the stripper scene in the Big Short. It's that obvious and has been for quite some time but it's hard to bet against a huge bubble that seemingly never stops running. The FED's hand being forced against inflation is going to be the ultimate needle. I even said that at least a dozen times on this very thread. Stuff like, "Easiest play ever is going to be shorting crypto as soon as the Feds mention tightening" yet even I got suckered out of the easiest play in history after watching the squeezes and bubble going insane.

I sure hope I'm wrong. That's my opinion though.

I could see it all playing out that way. I don't think it will, I sure hope that it will not. There is no guarantee with any stock and I know that. I agree about a lot of the pump and dumps and have resisted from buying most of them. I guess time will tell, but I do sure hope your wrong.

 

[bclemms]

I could see it all playing out that way. I don't think it will, I sure hope that it will not. There is no guarantee with any stock and I know that. I agree about a lot of the pump and dumps and have resisted from buying most of them. I guess time will tell, but I do sure hope your wrong.

I hope I'm wrong and I hope nobody takes this the wrong way. Then again, Ive been screaming bubble for 2-3 years and the damn thing just keeps getting bigger so what do I know? Up until a couple months ago I was just the guy watching everyone make a ton of easy money squeezing out short term plays.

The good news, one thing that fixes inflation fast is a crashing economy.

It still wouldn't shock me if we go take out new highs in the next 30 days but it's just blowing that bubble bigger. If inflation eases and the supply chain can work itself out really quickly then it'll be Bulls on Parade. Some of the most overpriced stocks losing 70+% over the past 6 months isn't just some "gully" though.

 

[Turfie]

That was a great comment. I certainly hope the opposite happens though. I’m in camp that believes that the January squeeze may look minuscule to what these Ryan Cohen ‘turnaround’ stocks will become in a few years.

 

[NewOrleansFan]

NFLX is at the same level it was 5 years ago.

Just checked BA and it is below its Covid crash.

 

[johnw412601]

That was a great comment. I certainly hope the opposite happens though. I’m in camp that believes that the January squeeze may look minuscule to what these Ryan Cohen ‘turnaround’ stocks will become in a few years.

I am in this camp as well. I personally do not believe these stocks will ever hit the ridiculous numbers a lot of folks think but I do think they are well within the range of ATH.

 

[Turfie]

I am in this camp as well. I personally do not believe these stocks will ever hit the ridiculous numbers a lot of folks think but I do think they are well within the range of ATH.

Each day these games continue the more my shares become long term gains. I’m not on margin and only invest in what I can lose.