The Investment Thread (5 Viewers)

[DaveXA]

The problem is that we don't have a big enough workforce to fill the jobs and continue growth. That causes companies to overpay. Good and bad to that.

I think what we are seeing is that 20-54 are all mostly back to work. Its folks 55+ who aren't or retired and are happy to stay out of the market.

The key will be graduation rates and how many kids are 16-19 that will be entering the work force or college in the next few years.

Well, all four of my kids either already are or will be in the labor market over the next few years, so we did our part.

 

[bclemms]

The problem is that we don't have a big enough workforce to fill the jobs and continue growth. That causes companies to overpay. Good and bad to that.

I think what we are seeing is that 20-54 are all mostly back to work. Its folks 55+ who aren't or retired and are happy to stay out of the market.

The key will be graduation rates and how many kids are 16-19 that will be entering the work force or college in the next few years.

Due to the border tightening because of "covid" it was something like 3M immigrants that would have come over that haven't. This has caused some pretty big shortages in the labor market, particularly in farming, construction and trucking. Those are three massive industries and it has caused a trickle down effect in other markets. So like the supply chain, the labor market is being hit in every direction. Combine that with the people retiring and the nearly 2M excess deaths from Covid causing dead people to stop working, It's the perfect storm.

 

[St. Geezy]

This is a crime scene. “Guh.”

 

[St. Geezy]

I have a sneaking suspicion that Coinbase and other similar crypto brokerages have a huge role in all of this. This is somewhat in response to Coinbase’s latest filing which says that if they go under….everybody’s fake coins could get wiped out. FYI - I’m sure you know but Coinbase is kinda like a stock brokerage. You don’t actually own those shares/coins. (Which is why I ComputerShared my GME).

If it’s burning down a lot of people are just cashing out. Which Coinbase is paying out/selling out.

If people are rapidly setting up actual crypto wallets and transferring then Coinbase needs to provide the actual coins. I’m sure they have a supply. But….if enough people are transferring then they might need to purchase the coins to transfer.

This might blow up real soon.

I have been telling anyone who would listen for a long time now that crypto is a Ponzi scheme. The entire concept makes very little practical sense to me. Times like these were easy to see coming.

It’s a liquidity source for institutions. Don’t know if was always that way, but that’s what it’s become.

 

[DaveXA]

I have been telling anyone who would listen for a long time now that crypto is a Ponzi scheme. The entire concept makes very little practical sense to me. Times like these were easy to see coming.

It’s a liquidity source for institutions. Don’t know if was always that way, but that’s what it’s become.

Yeah, I've never touched it in part because I felt the same way. Just feels like whoever is the last one(s) holding the bag Is gonna get rekt.

 

[SaintInBucLand]

Sitting on 10 call contracts of the SPY that I bought at the bottom today and went up 70% in the last 30 minutes of trading. Do they keep going up at open tomorrow or does the bottom fall out again. This market is something else.

 

[bclemms]

Sitting on 10 call contracts of the SPY that I bought at the bottom today and went up 70% in the last 30 minutes of trading. Do they keep going up at open tomorrow or does the bottom fall out again. This market is something else.

I keep looking at analogs to the last time we had rapid rate increases from the Fed to fend off hyperinflation. We are in 1981 all over again. Diesel and gas shortages are next.

I did pick up Netflix in pre market at $164 but also grabbed some Apple puts as a hedge against a big drop.

 

[Saint_Ward]

Due to the border tightening because of "covid" it was something like 3M immigrants that would have come over that haven't. This has caused some pretty big shortages in the labor market, particularly in farming, construction and trucking. Those are three massive industries and it has caused a trickle down effect in other markets. So like the supply chain, the labor market is being hit in every direction. Combine that with the people retiring and the nearly 2M excess deaths from Covid causing dead people to stop working, It's the perfect storm.

I think China shutting down again, at least in some key cities is definitely not helping.

Shanghai re-tightens on COVID, frustrating trapped residents

The city of Shanghai is doubling down on pandemic restrictions after a brief period of loosening up, frustrating residents who were hoping a more than monthlong lockdown was finally easing as the number of new cases falls in China’s largest city

abcnews.go.com

Toyota cuts production due to Covid lockdown in Shanghai

Tesla has reportedly also halted most production at its Shanghai plant due to problems sourcing parts.

www.bbc.com

Toyta is shutting down production next week for a week. But, it should only impact about 7% of their deliveries, if you do the math.

 

[Saint_Ward]

I don't know what their numbers usually look like. But, there is a lot of ships in China.

 

[jboss]

Really glad I sold Solana after that last big pop. I think I'm done with crypto. Or at least let the Ponzi/MLM faction of all of it eat sheet before I even think about investing. As bad as all the speculative markets are doing right now, I really think crypto is gonna be extremely bad in the next few years.

 

[Turfie]

Spent a long time looking at yet another weird day for memes. I think they were covering the ETF failure to delivers. They can do this anytime. But I think they covered violently.

This can cause a halt (which they can manipulate…never forget what happened a month and a half ago). But violent covering would also make options more expensive…due to enhanced volatility.

 

[St. Geezy]

Here is my watch list.

I've narrowed my concentration down to AMC, EVGO, and SOFI.

I loaded up between yesterday and this morning. Have plenty of dry powder left for next week in case there is a dip, but I see all three having significant runs between now and 06/21 (the T2 settlement date of the 06/17 quarterlies, if they wait until the last minute on their futures rollovers, like last quarter).

This is the game now for me....hold off until about a month out, then go in heavy on quarterly options, a week past the quarterly date.

 

[longtime lurker]

A lot of green today….just picked up some GM and DIS.

 

[Turfie]

We are in the end game now

 

[Saint_Ward]

What's been interesting to me, is that other than today, everything has pretty much been red, outside of a few small companies who crushed numbers. Even bonds are mostly down. A lot of folks just took their ball and went home (aka cashed out and are waiting).