Ukraine (26 Viewers)

[Sailorsaint]

Two things I think I think....Prigo thought that he would get to RoD and capture Gerasimo/Shoigu. When they couldn't be found, he continued on to Moscow even though that is NOT what he wanted to do. This may be why he jumped at the chance to negotiate. Second, ok, Wagner gets amnesty. What about the supposed russian regulars, pilots and officials that jumped to his side?
He left a lot of people flapping in the wind and I don't imagine they are too happy about it.

 

[J-Donk]

I don't think it's a positive for anyone. Putin was shown to have an extremely tenuous grasp on power. Prigozhin is figuratively defenestrated and will soon be literally defenestrated. This can't be good for morale--either for the Wagner people or the regular Russian troops.

Yeah this is great for Ukraine. Priggy was by far their most competent commander. That's an extremely low bar, but he was the only person who made gains in the last year.

 

[HoustonSaint68]

Interesting that all this is happening around the time we get to page 1917 of this thread....

 

[efil4stnias]

But what was his plan? Did he really just lose it and bite off more than he can chew - and they gave him an out?

I think his plan was initially to go to Moscow and then as the day went on, realized that it was going to be a bloodbath for both sides and not get anything he wanted. He seems to be sort of a hot head and just went off til he had time to really think it thru.

So yeah I think he came around to a point of "wtf am I doing ..what we gonna do if we capture Moscow" and that scared him. He doesn't want to be President...he wants to continue PMC Wagner, make billions and live his life.

I think the plan was put together with others and he just abandoned them. Do Belarus offers safe haven ...quasi exile. But he is a targeted man by some who may not like his 180 turn.

Now word is there is no guarantee Shoigu gets canned.

Was there some leverage Putin had over him? Family?

I wouldn't drink any tea. Ever.

As for Putin he is gonna have to do something soon as a "show of strength" I think. What that is I don't know.

 

[DaveXA]

Something to think about, I suspect Poots is gonna make it his mission to out and off or imprison anyone who supported Wagner's faux coup.

 

[efil4stnias]

You mean any Russian, correct?

This is definitely good for Ukraine. Not as good as it could have been had it been real, but still a net positive for them.

Totally

In the short term...RuAF is disjointed. As news filters to RuAF forces, they have to be thinking wait wut? Who running this? Why am I here?

Prigo made it a point to say, publicly, there was lies and corruption that led to Ukraine invasion. Can't keep that tamped down forever. Folks heard that. Others will. Especially those who may get mobilized. Morale has to be very low.

Add in PMC mercs who went along only to see him turn. How does that play out within the ranks?

Meanwhile UAF has plans. RuAF did too...now they have to be somewhat upended. At the very least, communication and purpose has been lost. Initiative too. Bad mix for a fighting force on the precipice of facing major assault.

 

[SaintsFan11]

You mean any Russian, correct?

This is definitely good for Ukraine. Not as good as it could have been had it been real, but still a net positive for them.

Right. Not good for anyone on the Russian side. Should’ve been more clear.

Don’t see how it’s a negative for Ukraine, which is good with me!

 

[baarbogast]

 

[DCSaints_Fan]

Trying to get into a Russian-like mindset (impossible, really, despite my past experience with them), maybe it's just a real life version of the new-in-prison or the Pride-Male trope. He had to be seen to take on the strongest comer to resolidify his power.

Sorry, but I'm gonna stereotype here: Russians just really suck as a collective. We're all ugly, selfish humans, and we're mostly worse in our tribal form, but the Russians are really bottom of the barrel.

I don't think its anything uniquely Russian really, except maybe in a modern context. Read about some of the shenanigans that went on with Hitler and Napoleon, or really any autocrat/dictator and this really isn't that unusual. You can go from favored son to sheetlist pretty quickly.

In a US context, its comparable to all the back door politicking and backstabbing that went on in the American Civil War, particularly early on in the Union side. But because the US ostensibly has things like "rule of law", "civillian control of the military", etc. when these types of things would go down, people would simply be "reassigned" (or retired)

 

[efil4stnias]

I don't think its anything uniquely Russian really, except maybe in a modern context. Read about some of the shenanigans that went on with Hitler and Napoleon, or really any autocrat/dictator and this really isn't that unusual. You can go from favored son to sheetlist pretty quickly.

In a US context, its comparable to all the back door politicking and backstabbing that went on in the American Civil War, particularly early on in the Union side. But because the US ostensibly has things like "rule of law", "civillian control of the military", etc. when these types of things would go down, people would simply be "reassigned" (or retired)

This.

Hertling just described what Russia is...a dictatorship with warlords (oligarchs) . Putin designates who and what role they play.

But in that type of rule, warlords will test the ruler. That's what happened here.

We don't fully grasp because of what you stated in the latter...rule of law, control etc.

 

[HoustonSaint68]

I don't think its anything uniquely Russian really, except maybe in a modern context. Read about some of the shenanigans that went on with Hitler and Napoleon, or really any autocrat/dictator and this really isn't that unusual. You can go from favored son to sheetlist pretty quickly.

In a US context, its comparable to all the back door politicking and backstabbing that went on in the American Civil War, particularly early on in the Union side. But because the US ostensibly has things like "rule of law", "civillian control of the military", etc. when these types of things would go down, people would simply be "reassigned" (or retired)

Mmmm, no, I'm not referring to the political shenanigans at the top. I agree that is a story as old as humans collecting as tribes. I'm talking about the fatalistic non-response of their serfs. Not gonna do the historical psychological profiling here, but the Russian people are historically different.

 

[buzd]

I was really hoping for a more interesting conclusion to this chapter. This writers strike sucks.

 

[brandon8283]

I was really hoping for a more interesting conclusion to this chapter. This writers strike sucks.

Nobody wants to work any more.

 

[Mamba]

Wagner gets amnesty.

Yeah, we'll see how that goes for him.

 

[Saintman2884]

I think they got misunderstood. Badly.

I think they showed up ready to help, but the Polish officialdom just didn't get it. I think they arrived with a bunch of boxes of goodies they wanted to give Ukraine to help them, and now they're wondering where that all went wrong.

I think Ukrainians had an offer of joint participation in war. Well meaning, more than they usually get. Troops and arms to support them. It just happened to be from one of the tiniest nations on Earth. A few boxes of arms along with their diplomatic delegation is all this country has to offer.

I'm ready to embrace them for offering to do what they could do.

South Africa, could hardly be constructed or perceived as one of the smallest, tiniest nations on earth. Their previous white-minority, fanatically dedicated Afrikaner Apartheid regime held out against near-universal condemnation, UN sanctions, diplomatic, cultural, and sports boycotts for decades, vowing to never change or alter their regime. They even fought or funded several proxy wars against Communist-backed or led guerrila groups in Angola, Mozambique, and trained and even fought with Rhodesian troops for over a decade in their bush war against Mugabe's Moscow-backed, funded ZANU forces until the 1980 Lancaster House agreement finally saw Ian Smith's white-minority rule end in Rhodesia.

Sure, it helped that the US, and UK gave financial and military assistance that eased the sting of international sanctions for a few decades, but even that assistance trickled away, the Apartheid regime still held out for over a decade and couldve persisted if the threat of a possible race war in the early 1990's didnt convince many ordinary Afrikaners maybe making a deal with Mandela and holding free, democratic elections might not be such a bad idea.