Ukraine (17 Viewers)

[DJ1BigTymer]

He gonna die

I suggest he should invest in a personal Geiger Counter.

 

[SaintsFan11]

Ok. But then Prigozhin gave up all of his leverage.

 

[SamAndreas]

What the hell

That fits with what I've been saying.

Look for Prigozhin becoming head henchman as he's always been for Putin, but now he seems to be for Lukashenko. And part of the deal is that Lukashenko brings Belarus into the federation. A necessity to bring this lost war to a close.

The reason that is a necessity, is that allows Russia to back down from a lost war with Ukraine, a war that they've obviously lost. Without their population becoming unhinged because it contains the elements of a win for Russia because Belarus joins the Russian federation.

Not a win, but a compromise they can sell to their people as a significant win.

Lukashenko when he was in contention for becoming the Russian federation leader before the breakup of the Soviet Union was very like Putin. They agreed on just about everything except for who would lead Russia.

This explains why Putin gave Belarus tactical nuclear weapons two months ago. One has to always keep the nuclear bomb tea leaves in mind with predicting the future. That was a necessary sweetener to make the deal. One which had to be set in place ahead of time.

That was something I couldn't understand until now. That was to set the ground in Belarus, to set this up so that Lukashenko would have something positive to say to his people about why it is OK for them to join Russia now. Russia trusts them with their nuclear weapons.

I don't know if it will come to pass right now. That depends on the life span of Putin. He's dying that I do know. What I do not know is when.

I think Lukashenko is the key for Putin's gang to continue on in spite of Putin making a grave mistake in war. Lukashenko as an outsider solves a lot of problems that anyone who is an insider could not solve in order to take power at this point in time.

This might be the time or a bit later might be the time. That depends on Putin's health. But he's dying and that will bring him to a close. Something has to account for all of the necessities so that the very rich continue to be very rich.

This is what I see in the tea leaves at the bottom of the tea cup.

 

[SamAndreas]

There is a very short list of Generals Putin trusts with the Army. He has fired and rehired the same generals in charge of the army like 3 or 4 times in the last 16 months. I think there is a saying about insanity which says something about doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results... Its obvious that Putin only trust the command over the armed forces with two generals. Shoigu then Gerasimov. However, he keeps them guessing as he dumps them continually. Shoigu then Gerasimov then sprinkle in a little Surovikin then Shoigu then Gerasimov...

I have Shoigu and Gerasimov down as two of the people who will be told to stand next to a rock wall so they can be shot.

They are who will die for the cause of the very rich who control Russia. Someone has to die, it might as well be them.

 

[CajunInVA]

That fits with what I've been saying.

Look for Prigozhin becoming head henchman as he's always been for Putin, but now he seems to be for Lukashenko. And part of the deal is that Lukashenko brings Belarus into the federation. A necessity to bring this lost war to a close.

The reason that is a necessity, is that allows Russia to back down from a lost war with Ukraine, a war that they've obviously lost. Without their population becoming unhinged because it contains the elements of a win for Russia because Belarus joins the Russian federation.

Not a win, but a compromise they can sell to their people as a significant win.

Lukashenko when he was in contention for becoming the Russian federation leader before the breakup of the Soviet Union was very like Putin. They agreed on just about everything except for who would lead Russia.

This explains why Putin gave Belarus tactical nuclear weapons two months ago. One has to always keep the nuclear bomb tea leaves in mind with predicting the future. That was a necessary sweetener to make the deal. One which had to be set in place ahead of time.

That was something I couldn't understand until now. That was to set the ground in Belarus, to set this up so that Lukashenko would have something positive to say to his people about why it is OK for them to join Russia now. Russia trusts them with their nuclear weapons.

I don't know if it will come to pass right now. That depends on the life span of Putin. He's dying that I do know. What I do not know is when.

I think Lukashenko is the key for Putin's gang to continue on in spite of Putin making a grave mistake in war. Lukashenko as an outsider solves a lot of problems that anyone who is an insider could not solve in order to take power at this point in time.

This might be the time or a bit later might be the time. That depends on Putin's health. But he's dying and that will bring him to a close. Something has to account for all of the necessities so that the very rich continue to be very rich.

This is what I see in the tea leaves at the bottom of the tea cup.

Wasn’t Lukashenko being rushed to the hospital with unknown issues, just last month. Doesn’t seem like someone to build a plan around?

 

[SamAndreas]

How is that a solution? The Wagner soldiers are going to fall in line and be subsumed into the Russian military after their leader abandoned them for a big payday?

Seems like he would only have any security if he had the loyalty of a large group of armed soldiers. Now his life is in the hands of Lukashenko? A noted Putin lackey?

His soldiers would have to feel betrayed, no?

Nothing about this entire affair makes any sense whatsoever.

I see the sense in it. Something has to explain why Russia gave Belarus tactical nuclear weapons two months ago. This explains that.

I can't see an explanation that makes sense without this. Lukashenko is who Putin choose to replaces himself.

 

[nolaspe]

 

[SamAndreas]

I don't think Belarus is a safe haven. It's a suburb of Moscow. He would need to go to Africa somewhere.

The explanation has to explain why Russia under Putin gave Belarus tactical nuclear weapons.

That explanation must be included. It's too important to not be accounted for.

 

[SamAndreas]

Yeah, this is kinda where I'm at. Prigozhin's security is tied to his guys...unless he makes the quite reasonable calculation that it's only a matter of time before "his guys" are infiltrated (which they probably already are) and one of them offs him anyway.

This is all very nutty, but I don't see any scenario where this is a net positive for Putin. The only "good" is that he had to get rid of the in-fighting, and maybe he smoked out some of the weak links amongst his loyalists. Other than that, even though it was all a game of sorts, he's still hurt his standing, and subsuming the bits of Wagner that agree to go into the Russian army will ultimately mean dilution of one of the few decent fighting units that they had, not strengthening of the whole.

Just all very puzzling but, as I referenced in an earlier post, it doesn't have to make sense to a Western audience, just a subservient Russian one.

Wait for it... .

It will come.

 

[DCSaints_Fan]

The explanation has to explain why Russia under Putin gave Belarus tactical nuclear weapons.

That explanation must be included. It's too important to not be accounted for.

They placed them there but I don't think they transferred control.

 

[SamAndreas]

Trying to get into a Russian-like mindset (impossible, really, despite my past experience with them), maybe it's just a real life version of the new-in-prison or the Pride-Male trope. He had to be seen to take on the strongest comer to resolidify his power.

Sorry, but I'm gonna stereotype here: Russians just really suck as a collective. We're all ugly, selfish humans, and we're mostly worse in our tribal form, but the Russians are really bottom of the barrel.

Get into a mindset where everything that has to do with nuclear weapons has to have an explanation.

Their will always be an explanation. It's too important a thing to not have an explanation at every step of the way.

 

[DCSaints_Fan]

Their sons, daughters, grandsons, fathers, and other extended relatives are currently embroiled in a bloody, extremely devastating, costly war that has seen over 100,000+ of their countrymen wounded, blown up, shattered by missile drone strikes, or mortar shells, bodies riddled by bullets, picked off by Ukrainian snipers, sappers for a war whose reasoning defies logical sense and reasoning, and is based around centuries-old pan-Slavic ultra-Russian nationalist aspirations, fanatical dreams of expansionism into Middle East, conquering Istanbul/Constantinople, extending Russian religious, economic, or cultural influence further into Eastern Europe, South Asia, and even parts of mainland China.

These same ideals were the basis for three wars fought between Tsarist Russia and Ottoman Turkey throughout the 19th century (including the Crimean War). Putin is a huge admirer of Czar Peter the Great, who originally opened Russia to Western influence and liked to use dental pliars to pull people's teeth if they were sore and ordered Russian Orthodox priests to shave their beards, and Putin doesn't believe Ukraine has a legitimate, sovereign right to exist outside of Russian domination, control, or influence.

He's bothered because he perceives Ukraine as being too pro-West, and wanting to move closer to NATO and EU and decided to invade to prevent that.

Not in enough numbers to make much of a difference, and not in the areas that matter (Moscow/St. Petersburg, etc.). The military is drawn heavily from the poorer and more remote areas of the country. Also from a more cynical point of view, even if they think the war was a bad idea, some type of "white peace" is preferable to an outright loss. Alot of Russians are old enough to remember the 90s and despite the Soviet Union being the corrupt failed bureaucracy that it was, its disintegration wasn't good economically for Russia in the short term and they don't want to go back to that.

 

[DaveXA]

 

[Saintman2884]

Not in enough numbers to make much of a difference, and not in the areas that matter (Moscow/St. Petersburg, etc.). The military is drawn heavily from the poorer and more remote areas of the country. Also from a more cynical point of view, even if they think the war was a bad idea, some type of "white peace" is preferable to an outright loss. Alot of Russians are old enough to remember the 90s and despite the Soviet Union being the corrupt failed bureaucracy that it was, its disintegration wasn't good economically for Russia in the short term and they don't want to go back to that.

So, if another 150-200,000 thousand Ru soldiers, pilots, special forces members get killed or wounded, or permanently maimed over the next year or so, it'll still barely make anything more then a ripple or a mild disruption among most Russians living in major population areas, cities like Sochi, St. Petersburg, or Moscow?

I don't know how Putin or any of the other Russian oligarchs trying to defend or argue this invasion was successful or morally/ethically justified. This isn't like other past disastrous wars like Napoleon's 1812 Grande Armee invasion or Hitler's bloody, violent, apocalyptic racial/ethnic genocidal war like Operation Barbarossa and the Great Patriotic War. Russia wasnt invaded or personally attacked by a foreign power. If anything, this is more akin to near-decade long Soviet military intervention in Afghanistan and thats where the Red Army was bled, slowly to death.

 

[SamAndreas]