Where there's smoke there's fire. (2 Viewers)

[SigFreudianSlip]

That my friend would turn Saintsreport completely on it's head. lol

Some logic to it. If Saints stay pat and pick the QB "THEY" love (and he works out) and we still get arguably the best "healthy" WR in the class... cheers!

Another logical strategy (if we love Ridder) would be to trade one of those picks for a late 1st and mid-2nd round pick. I think we could get Ridder in the 2nd, but with a QB... You want that 5th year. So Wilson (at 16), Ridder (late first), and 2 out of OT, S, RB, TE, DL, or another WR with the (2) 2nd round picks. THAT would be outstanding.

And with Ireland involved, I think having 5 picks in the top 120 is the best chance of having another 2017-like draft haul.

I could definitely live with that. I’ll be happy with pretty much anything but using these two firsts to trade up.

 

[St. Widge]

That my friend would turn Saintsreport completely on it's head. lol

Some logic to it. If Saints stay pat and pick the QB "THEY" love (and he works out) and we still get arguably the best "healthy" WR in the class... cheers!

Another logical strategy (if we love Ridder) would be to trade one of those picks for a late 1st and mid-2nd round pick. I think we could get Ridder in the 2nd, but with a QB... You want that 5th year. So Wilson (at 16), Ridder (late first), and 2 out of OT, S, RB, TE, DL, or another WR with the (2) 2nd round picks. THAT would be outstanding.

And with Ireland involved, I think having 5 picks in the top 120 is the best chance of having another 2017-like draft haul.

I'm not sure teams really care about the 5th year for QBs these days. I know that used to be the conventional way to do it, but it seems like guys are either getting new big deals before their 5th year because they are really good, or teams are ready to move on to try another QB before the 5th year.

 

[Thunderchild]

Just thought this fit so I'll leave it right here.



Winston singing to DA after Saints draft Willis in top 5?

"You left me here on your way to paradise
You pulled the rug right out from under my life
I know where you goin' to I knew when you came home last night
'Cause your eyes had a mist from the smoke of a distant fire
Lord, I was stung shoulda' seen it come a long time ago.
When I realized the reality gave me a role
If things are the same then explain why your kiss is so cold
And that mist in your eyes feels like rain on the fire in my soul
This lying, and cryin', is upsettin' and gettin' ya no where
It don't stack up, so slack up and pack up
I just don't care
Don't let the screen door hit you, on your way out.
Don't you drown when your dream boat runs onto the ground
I'd just like to know do you love him or just making time
By filling his glass with your fast flowing bitter-sweet wine.
He'll taste the aftertaste when you come home late some night.
With your eyes all a mist from the smoke of a distant fire."

 

[Swampy Saint]

SiriusXM just said next years tackle situation isn’t looking very strong.

I’m guessing tackle and reciever for Jamies to succeed

 

[St. Widge]

Winston in reality is on a one year deal. He is only really guaranteed $15.2 million if they move on from him before March 19th of 2023. If they bring in a 1st round QB, it actually explains Dalton a bit more. Winston will play, Dalton will be game day backup and teach the rookie how to be a leader and prepare for games, Book will run the scout team.

You don't keep 4 QBs if you take one in the top 5. If you take a top 5 QB, you start him as soon as you can maybe giving a guy like Dalton the first half of the year. It makes no sense to give Winston even $15 million if your plan is to move up and draft a QB in the top 5. If you plan to take a QB in the top 5, you spend that $15 million on signing Armstead to protect your prize rookie QB and give your prize rookie QB a reliable veteran WR opposite Michael Thomas. And this has nothing to do with whether you think Winston is good or not. It just makes no sense to give Winston even $15 million and then draft a QB in the top 5 that while having a hole at LT and no WRs other than Michael Thomas. It would still make some sense to take a QB at #16 or in the 2nd or 3rd round, but not to trade two first round picks and more to move up into the top 5.

Also, that would mean that the Saints plan to get the cap in shape and limit dead money is to sign Winston to a two year deal so they can take a $5 million dead cap hit next year when they cut him? That seems like a ridiculous plan to me.

 

[Centmssaint1]

You don't keep 4 QBs if you take on in the top 5. If you take a top 5 QB, you start him as soon as you can maybe giving a guy like Dalton the first half of the year. It makes no sense to give Winston even $15 million if your plan is to move up and draft a QB in the top 5. If you plan to take a QB in the top 5, you spend that $15 million on signing Armstead to protect your prize rookie QB and giving your prize rookie QB a reliable veteran WR opposite Michael Thomas. And this has nothing to do with whether you think Winston is good or not. It just makes no sense to give Winston $15 million and then draft a QB in the top 5 that while having a hole at LT and no WRs other than Michael Thomas. It would still make some sense to take a QB at #16 or in the 2nd or 3rd round, but not to trade two first round picks and more to move up into the top 5.

Why draft a QB this year?

 

[dutar76]

I'm not sure teams really care about the 5th year for QBs these days. I know that used to be the conventional way to do it, but it seems like guys are either getting new big deals before their 5th year because they are really good, or teams are ready to move on to try another QB before the 5th year.

I don't think that's the case. A 1st round QB on in his 5th year (could be) WAY cheaper than an elite starting QB on his 2nd deal. Will be at least a little bit cheaper, even if they make 2 pro-bowls. Yes, teams will extend that QB during the 5th year, but that 5th year contract still counts if I'm not mistaken.

So say you draft a QB at #16. His 4 year contract is ~15M His 5th year could be 20M (I don't really know)...

So you extend him before or during his 5th year for (5 years at 40M/yr)

If I'm not mistaken, that makes his contract be 6 years at 220M total (or 36M/yr)

I think it worked that way with MT and AK and Ram.

 

[St. Widge]

Why draft a QB this year?

I don't know that they do. But, if there is a QB they like, it would make sense to draft him since we don't know if Winston is going to be a franchise QB and he's only under contract for 2 years anyway.

 

[St. Widge]

I don't think that's the case. A 1st round QB on in his 5th year (could be) WAY cheaper than an elite starting QB on his 2nd deal. Will be at least a little bit cheaper, even if they make 2 pro-bowls. Yes, teams will extend that QB during the 5th year, but that 5th year contract still counts if I'm not mistaken.

So say you draft a QB at #16. His 4 year contract is ~15M His 5th year could be 20M (I don't really know)...

So you extend him before or during his 5th year for (5 years at 40M/yr)

If I'm not mistaken, that makes his contract be 6 years at 220M total (or 36M/yr)

I think it worked that way with MT and AK and Ram.

Yeah, but good QBs want new contracts before their 5th year and you don't want to risk them not being happy and/or not signing with you when their 5th year is up. You risk a guy refusing to extend in that 5th year and moving on to be a free agent if you don't do a deal in year 4 anyway. Plus, a long term contract allows you to manipulate the cap in ways you can't with just that 5th year option. In the long run that extra year isn't really going to make much difference with the modern ways to manipulate the cap. And bad QBs you just want off your team so you can go after a new QB. Beyond that even if you don't have the 5th year option you can use the Franchise Tag to keep a guy who is being difficult in contract negotiations.

Anyway, I'm not saying that you don't want the 5th year option just that it's not as important as it once was and I don't think it's worth using other draft capital to move up to the 1st if you can get the guy in the 2nd. That calculus probably changes with a guy like Willis or another QB you think will take 2 years before he is ready to play. It's probably worth it to buy time to develop a guy like that.

 

[St. Widge]

I don’t think they are moving into the top 5. I think there will be a QB they like at 16 and either a WR or OT at 19. Pickett and Ridder are the closest to being ready and both could still be there at 16 or 19. As far as Winston’s contract goes, his signing bonus is the only dead money they would be taking on in 2023 and they would actually clear $4.4 million in cap liability by cutting him before March 19th.

I don't think Pickett or Willis will be there at #16 but I think they would take one if they were. As far as Ridder, I wouldn't take him in the 1st. He needs to much development to be worth a 1st round pick when you have other needs. I'd wait until the 2nd or third and take either Howell, Ridder, or Coral.

 

[St. Widge]

Fair enough. We all have different opinions. I’m not convinced that all of these QBs don’t drop. I think we’d be reaching on all of them at 16 as well. There is a lot of talent at the top of this draft that would be hard for a team to pass on. I think what the Saints did was allow themselves the option of grabbing a QB and BPA at 16 and 19 if the board falls that way before they have to give up more to trade back in with more competition for the pick.

Yeah, I think that's true that they have flexibility. I do think they did this with the idea that they want a LT and a WR at #16 and #19, but they probably also had in mind that if Pickett or Willis is there they would take them. Then again, maybe they really like Ridder, Howell, or Coral and would take one of them at #16 of #19.

Anyway, my prediction is Pickett goes to Carolina and Willis goes to Atlanta unless someone trades up to take those guys first. Then the Saints take Howell in the 2nd or 3rd round.

 

[trux]

With the talk of RPO, why would Allen keep Carmichael as the o-coordinator if he’s going to switch the style of play? Especially if they have to adjust the whole scheme to adjust to a rookie. I don’t think they trade up for a QB but if one is available with their R2 pick, they’ll do it. Put me in the OT/WR camp.

 

[liveoakh]

Many unanswered questions:

This is all about getting weapons/protection for Jamies

Why do this now?...... Philly had to let go of one of their 3 first round picks. First come first serve. We effectively ice out the Chargers.

I believe we are really chasing a LT, and so were the Chargers. We leapfrog them to #16, and get the O lineman, that frankly wouldn't be there at #18. We then drop to #19 and scoop a WR (yes , a good one) or BPA out the box starter that slips perhaps.

Why give up a #1 2023 and 2nd in 2024?............I believe teams (Texans) were looking for to rich a pick compensation for WRs (Cooks). And WRs were seeking to much $$$$. Blinded by the Hill, Adams contract like (Jarvis Landry) wanting $20mill per season. With draft choices ( 2 1st round picks in the top 19 players) and you have them locked down to manageable contracts.

 

[Tony1Saintfan]

I still think and hope we take Matt Corral. I understand that people want other guys because they’ve seen them play more and that’s ok. I’ve seen Corral play a lot and I can see him being a franchise QB. If he does I want it to be for us and not someone else in our division.

 

[FLYGHT]

That's nonsense.

We were tied to the Watson drama till the very end.
Winston was a fall back.
His contract speaks to very little commitment and belief in him as a franchise QB moving forward.
Big Draft plays usually have the inner thinkings of positioning for a QB importance type move.

People forget the fact that the saints offered Winston a contract long before Watson became a "viable" option. Jameis was not on the roster when Cam Jordan and others were in pursuit of a QB. So when the Saints went after James we had no real QB option. Winston had other options, both Seattle and the Colts were offering deals. Jameis believes in himself and they are pretty sure of what they potentially have as evidenced by his numbers last season. It just wasn't enough to offer more than a prove-it deal. and I don't think the Taysom to TE only was just coincidence. I think the tough discussion had two sides to it, or the colts may have had the Jameis signing press conference. Jameis was not without chips in this agreement, especially after the Deshaun Watson Circus. both sides knew that they were each other's best option. The only question is for how long. The answer is up to Jameis. But he can't have the best shot if he doesn't have the tools.