My case against Jarvis Jones (1 Viewer)

[DMaestro]

I don't think that's necessarily the conclusion he's making; it's more of a counter-point to the hordes of people who make the argument

1) Jarvis Jones had great production
2) SEC SEC SEC SEC!
3) Jarvis Jones will be a great NFL player

1+2 doesn't automatically equal 3. Production doesn't necessarily mean NFL success.

I read it the same way. The primary case for Jones seems to be that he's produced big against elite SEC competition, therefore his lack of notable athleticism shouldn't be a concern. I think the OP did a pretty good job of undercutting that point with some interesting historical stats.

Now maybe there's some "Saintaholic fatigue" at play in this thread, but I've seen far worse OP's. At the very least, he's presented some food for thought.

Quite frankly, Jones at 15 makes me nervous as hell. Then again, so does just about every other likelihood barring Lotulelei, Lane Johnson, and maybe Sheldon Richardson. Therefore I go into tonight's draft feeling both thrilled and terrified.

It's a pretty fun position to be in.

 

[jt21]

For me the tape/skills don't necessarily match the production. If Mel Kiper etc. had never (largely speculatively) ranked this guy as a top-5 overall player before the season, would you rank him as such from watching him? Not so sure many people would.

He does some things in college that he won't necessarily be able to do in the NFL. For example, a lot of his pressure came from just running around tackles. Of course he'll do that in the NFL (would be idiotic to assert that he won't), but odds are he won't be able to do it anywhere close to the degree he did it in college; he's not going to get to face Xavier Nixon or Mizzou's slow, over-matched RT every week.

He's still a clear 1st round guy and I wouldn't be all that disappointed if the Saints drafted him (well, depending on who's available) but wouldn't exactly call him a steal at 15.

 

[GeauxSaints53]

So your argument is that because he was good in college, he won't be good in the pros...

 

[St. Widge]

For me the tape/skills don't necessarily match the production. If Mel Kiper etc. had never (largely speculatively) ranked this guy as a top-5 overall player before the season, would you rank him as such from watching him? Not so sure many people would.

He does some things in college that he won't necessarily be able to do in the NFL. For example, a lot of his pressure came from just running around tackles. Of course he'll do that in the NFL (would be idiotic to assert that he won't), but odds are he won't be able to do it anywhere close to the degree he did it in college; he's not going to get to face Xavier Nixon or Mizzou's slow, over-matched RT every week.

He's still a clear 1st round guy and I wouldn't be all that disappointed if the Saints drafted him (well, depending on who's available) but wouldn't exactly call him a steal at 15.

I can't disagree with any of that. I think he is going to be a solid to good player in the NFL and #15 is probably the right value spot for him. So, taking him there is far from a bad thing. And I would be satisfied with the pick.

At the same point, I'd rather see Mingo fall to #15 and take him. Mingo has far more bust potential, but he also could be a star. Jones I think will be solid, but probably not much better ,if any better ,than Gallette, Butler or Wilson. And, I think what we need on defense is that star that can spark the team and risking a #15 pick is worth that chance. On the other hand, Jones would be solid, but I'd probably rather trade down and get picks to fill more needs and depth issues than to take what is likely to be a solid Rush LB at #15 when we probably already have 3 of those on the roster.

 

[2009ring]

I read it the same way. The primary case for Jones seems to be that he's produced big against elite SEC competition, therefore his lack of notable athleticism shouldn't be a concern. I think the OP did a pretty good job of undercutting that point with some interesting historical stats.

Now maybe there's some "Saintaholic fatigue" at play in this thread, but I've seen far worse OP's. At the very least, he's presented some food for thought.

Quite frankly, Jones at 15 makes me nervous as hell. Then again, so does just about every other likelihood barring Lotulelei, Lane Johnson, and maybe Sheldon Richardson. Therefore I go into tonight's draft feeling both thrilled and terrified.

It's a pretty fun position to be in.

lus-un2:

Great post. The OP was in for trouble the minute he started criticizing the SEC.

 

[St. Widge]

lus-un2:

Great post. The OP was in for trouble the minute he started criticizing the SEC.

The amont of irrational SEC hate on this board is really out of control. Most Saints fans live in SEC territory, see SEC players every week and root for SEC teams. And, well the SEC is really good. That does not mean that every SEC player is going to be great, but it does not mean that every player that people like is only liked because he plays in the SEC.

 

[dajmno]

JJ might be the biggest serving of crow ever served.

 

[bigcobra]

Outside the LTs, Tavon Austin is the only guy who appears to be a sure fire thing imo. And even he may not produce if he gets drafted by a team with a terrible offense. All the defenders make me nervous. I know the jury is still out on Jordan, but we haven't drafted that pro bowl type player in a long time on D in the first round.

 

[St. Geezy]

I read it the same way. The primary case for Jones seems to be that he's produced big against elite SEC competition, therefore his lack of notable athleticism shouldn't be a concern. I think the OP did a pretty good job of undercutting that point with some interesting historical stats.

Now maybe there's some "Saintaholic fatigue" at play in this thread, but I've seen far worse OP's. At the very least, he's presented some food for thought.

Quite frankly, Jones at 15 makes me nervous as hell. Then again, so does just about every other likelihood barring Lotulelei, Lane Johnson, and maybe Sheldon Richardson. Therefore I go into tonight's draft feeling both thrilled and terrified.

It's a pretty fun position to be in.

Thanks DMaestro, you've summed up my feelings pretty well. I did not expect to get such backlash for listing stats and names, but your concise version is much easier to read.

Perhaps I should have used a different post title. I really didn't intend or expect this thread to be so polorizing. I really wanted this to be an intelligent debate about Jones and was just trying to offer up a rebuttal to the great stats he's had in a stand-alone thread.

 

[SaintTiger]

All I am saying is I agree that a speed rusher running 4.9 in the 40 isn't impressive and I wouldn't take him before the second or third round.

 

[crosswatt]

Thanks DMaestro, you've summed up my feelings pretty well. I did not expect to get such backlash for listing stats and names, but your concise version is much easier to read.

Perhaps I should have used a different post title. I really didn't intend or expect this thread to be so polorizing. I really wanted this to be an intelligent debate about Jones and was just trying to offer up a rebuttal to the great stats he's had in a stand-alone thread.

Let me first start by thanking you for bringing reason and critical information to the debate. You expressed that you have great concerns about Jones' ability to replicate his collegiate performance at the NFL level, and you presented a sound argument to buttress your point. I really cannot stress enough that this is EXACTLY what I hope to see whenever anyone voices an opinion; a sound basis for said opinion. Thank you so much for doing so.

And now, to your point:

<iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/76p_ncbffCE?rel=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[2009ring]

The amont of irrational SEC hate on this board is really out of control. Most Saints fans live in SEC territory, see SEC players every week and root for SEC teams. And, well the SEC is really good. That does not mean that every SEC player is going to be great, but it does not mean that every player that people like is only liked because he plays in the SEC.

What you consider "SEC hate", people who don't live in the SEC areas consider "SEC slobbering".

The SEC is really good because of the BCS system (created by - wait for it - the SEC commissioner) and the polls. Let's see how they do when the real playoffs start.

Real number don't exactly show a huge dominance:

<center>SEC vs. PAC-12 regular season: 10-12</center><center>SEC vs. PAC-12 bowl games: 1-0</center><center>SEC vs. Big 12 regular season: 6-10</center><center>SEC vs. Big 12 bowl games: 21-8</center><center>SEC vs. ACC regular season: 42-36</center><center>SEC vs. ACC bowl games: 16-9</center><center>SEC vs. Big 10 regular season: 7-4</center><center>SEC vs. Big 10 bowl games: 19-19</center><center>SEC vs. Big East regular season: 16-15</center><center>SEC vs. Big East bowl game: 3-8

Why SEC Isn't As Great In Football As You Think | ThePostGame

</center>

 

[Beerman84]

All I am saying is I agree that a speed rusher running 4.9 in the 40 isn't impressive and I wouldn't take him before the second or third round.

I think it's a mistake to dismiss a pass rusher based on his 40. As someone pointed out, three of the leagues very best pass rushers (Suggs, Dumervil, Krueger) ran slow 40 times.

 

[St. Geezy]

I think it's a mistake to dismiss a pass rusher based on his 40. As someone pointed out, three of the leagues very best pass rushers (Suggs, Dumervil, Krueger) ran slow 40 times.

They're also bigger men though. And Jones did not produce at the same level as Suggs, who had an NCAA record 24 sacks in his final season.

I think the best comparable would actually be James Harrison. But even he took a good 5 years to do anything and is the exception, not the rule.