2024 Tropical Weather Thread (30 Viewers)

[faceman]

What makes this scenario even worse is that the forecast is for the storm to slow down its forward speed and linger over southeast Texas for a few days. If that happens, the flooding will be overwhelming. It could also bring back some really bad memories for folks in the greater Houston area.

Houston simply can't handle a big rain event. 98% of the city is covered in asphalt and concrete. Building on natural
flood plains is never a good idea anywhere,especially in hurricane prone areas.

 

[Mr. Blue Sky]

What makes this scenario even worse is that the forecast is for the storm to slow down its forward speed and linger over southeast Texas for a few days. If that happens, the flooding will be overwhelming. It could also bring back some really bad memories for folks in the greater Houston area.

Question, for anyone who has an idea: Im scheduled to go to Houston for a few days .. as i type this it’s Friday July 5th.. scheduled to be in Houston next Sun the 14th- Wed 17th.. do y’all think that , b/c I remember from Harvey a few yrs ago Houston was completed blocked from entering/exiting which created a problem where my ex could not join me in NOLA for the LSU/BYU game (which I believe was relocated from Houston)…so IF - and I realize these are big Ifs- if some of these bad scenarios happen- do y’all think it will have already happened by next Sunday ? Or maybe i might have to resked/replan my trip ? TIA

 

[faceman]

Question, for anyone who has an idea: Im scheduled to go to Houston for a few days .. as i type this it’s Friday July 5th.. scheduled to be in Houston next Sun the 14th- Wed 17th.. do y’all think that , b/c I remember from Harvey a few yrs ago Houston was completed blocked from entering/exiting which created a problem where my ex could not join me in NOLA for the LSU/BYU game (which I believe was relocated from Houston)…so IF - and I realize these are big Ifs- if some of these bad scenarios happen- do y’all think it will have already happened by next Sunday ? Or maybe i might have to resked/replan my trip ? TIA

Well the euro model I posted earlier shows a mid coast Texas landfall on Mon. 7-7. You'll know long before the 14th.
The best advice I can give is follow the experts at the NHC and their forecasts

 

[Mr. Blue Sky]

Well the euro model I posted earlier shows a mid coast Texas landfall on Mon. 7-7. You'll know long before the 14th.
The best advice I can give is follow the experts at the NHC and their forecasts

Yeah that makes sense.. i guess with the talk upthread of it possibly stalling for a few days over Houston, and the possible resulting floods- it could conceivably drag impacts out until next weekend.. but if I’ve learned anything by living for approximately a half century now, it’s that im not gonna worry too much about it, at least until there’s more specificity .

 

[bclemms]

Question, for anyone who has an idea: Im scheduled to go to Houston for a few days .. as i type this it’s Friday July 5th.. scheduled to be in Houston next Sun the 14th- Wed 17th.. do y’all think that , b/c I remember from Harvey a few yrs ago Houston was completed blocked from entering/exiting which created a problem where my ex could not join me in NOLA for the LSU/BYU game (which I believe was relocated from Houston)…so IF - and I realize these are big Ifs- if some of these bad scenarios happen- do y’all think it will have already happened by next Sunday ? Or maybe i might have to resked/replan my trip ? TIA

This isnt going to be a Harvey like situation and the flash flooding aspect is likely going to be somewhat limited. Harvey didnt move more than 100 miles for 3.5 days and dropped 70” of rain. Beryl will not completely stall and will drop less than a foot of rain. Any flooding, including rivers, is likely to be over by Tuesday.

I’m guessing some known problem spots have issues in Houston, Galveston areas and thats about it. Just a guess.

 

[saintmdterps]

This is hard to wrap the brain around

Great work, man

I think what’s lost on us is the extent to which these small islands are completely scoured by a cat 5 hurricane. We in the US see localized devastation, but it shrinks in proportion to the larger geographical area. When an island of 10-20 square miles takes a direct hit it gets obliterated

 

[bclemms]

I think what’s lost on us is the extent to which these small islands are completely scoured by a cat 5 hurricane. We in the US see localized devastation, but it shrinks in proportion to the larger geographical area. When an island of 10-20 square miles takes a direct hit it gets obliterated

Right. It is no different than Mexico Beach after Michael. The difference is the island part then the logistical challenges an island poses.

 

[bonnjer]

Currently, it's not very impressive on the infrared. I expect that'll change during the day. This storm is like Jason Voorhees - it just doesn't die.

 

[bclemms]

Currently, it's not very impressive on the infrared. I expect that'll change during the day. This storm is like Jason Voorhees - it just doesn't die.

It’s going to take a minute to rebuild the inner core structure. Once it does, watch out. Will be a race against time.

 

[Bayouboy]

Beryl not dead yet. Looks to be better organized and could become a CAT2 by landfall. Hell, with the RI of storms lately, a CAT3 might be possible.

 

[faceman]

Beryl not dead yet. Looks to be better organized and could become a CAT2 by landfall. Hell, with the RI of storms lately, a CAT3 might be possible.

yes, Beryl is breaking some long held rules. Meteorology is still an inexact science,but we still should follow the NHC at this time of the year.

 

[Doug B]

Every time I look at Beryl’s track and cone it’s pushed more and more north. I understand the 7-10-days-out cones being inaccurate… but this thing has shifted from Brownsville to the western Houston suburbs over the last 72-96 hours.

 

[Bayouboy]

Luckily, it has not intensified as predicted.

 

[faceman]

Every time I look at Beryl’s track and cone it’s pushed more and more north. I understand the 7-10-days-out cones being inaccurate… but this thing has shifted from Brownsville to the western Houston suburbs over the last 72-96 hours.

This is what is steering it. It's going between 2 high pressure systems and getting picked up by a trough.

 

[Mr. Blue Sky]

This is what is steering it. It's going between 2 high pressure systems and getting picked up by a trough.

Just me, or does that resemble the female fallopian tube system ? Or is that the joke ? Also , maybe my anatomical knowledge needs some brushing up on…….