2024 Tropical Weather Thread (3 Viewers)

[bclemms]

GFS has a storm this Sunday off Tampa in GoM. Then crosses over FL to off SC coast, curls back into JAX then off into GoM, skirting coast to Ms.

LOLOL.

Drugs are baaad, mkkkaaay.

I believe the general idea to an extent. Miles and timing are going to matter on how that scenario plays out.

 

[Bill]

It's hard to imagine that there will be much left of that wave after it spends the next couple of day riding over Cuba.

 

[bclemms]

It's hard to imagine that there will be much left of that wave after it spends the next couple of day riding over Cuba.

Mountains will shred a closed low. A wave has no closed low and it wont really make a big difference outside of preventing it from organizing any farther.

 

[Bill]

Mountains will shred a closed low. A wave has no closed low and it wont really make a big difference outside of preventing it from organizing any farther.

Then I guess the future of this storm will be determined by how long it will be in the open Gulf waters. That's the only place it will be able to get its act together.

 

[faceman]

Mountains will shred a closed low. A wave has no closed low and it wont really make a big difference outside of preventing it from organizing any farther.

Yes, there is no closed low at the surface now. That's why no pro met on strorm2k is making a forecast with
confidence right now. you were spot on in your earlier post. They don't know right now. Too many unknowns
at the current time.

 

[faceman]

GFS has a storm this Sunday off Tampa in GoM. Then crosses over FL to off SC coast, curls back into JAX then off into GoM, skirting coast to Ms.

LOLOL.

Drugs are baaad, mkkkaaay.

wouldn't be the first storm to take a crazy path. I wonder what the current models would be doing
if a storm like Betsy hit today

https://www.mysanantonio.com/news/local/slideshow/Strange-paths-Gulf-storms-take-111687.php

 

[buzd]

A couple of days ago, this was 20%. So 1 in 5.

I guarantee about 95% of 20% invests develop into storms. They just gradually up the percentages so nobody notices.

What a shell game.

 

[bclemms]

A couple of days ago, this was 20%. So 1 in 5.

I guarantee about 95% of 20% invests develop into storms. They just gradually up the percentages so nobody notices.

What a shell game.

20% in the next 7 days. It says nothing after 7 days and it has been 40% or more for the last 3 days. It is 100% a guessing game based on model trends. Best anyone can do. Still a chance this thing runs up the Florida peninsula as a broad system and doesnt develop.

To show how dependent this thing is on steering currents, the trough that will eventually pick up this storm or miss it and steer it back West is off the coast of Russia right now.

 

[superchuck500]

20% in the next 7 days. It says nothing after 7 days and it has been 40% or more for the last 3 days. It is 100% a guessing game based on model trends. Best anyone can do. Still a chance this thing runs up the Florida peninsula as a broad system and doesnt develop.

To show how dependent this thing is on steering currents, the trough that will eventually pick up this storm or miss it and steer it back West is off the coast of Russia right now.

The latest NHC update says
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.

 

[faceman]

WxMan 57 said the following is a great website that displays the latest NHC track. You can also check
current temps on land and water,humidity,and precipitation

Potential Tropical Cyclone 04L LIVE Tracker, Updates & Forecast | Zoom Earth

Live tracking map, satellite images and forecasts of Potential Tropical Cyclone 04L 2024 over Cuba. Current wind speed 30mph. Max 65mph.

zoom.earth

 

[bclemms]

Now is a good time to hope the GFS is drunk. Way out in fantasyland but would be Ernesto on the back side of the current storm.

 

[efil4stnias]

Now is a good time to hope the GFS is drunk. Way out in fantasyland but would be Ernesto on the back side of the current storm.

780mb? That's extinction level storm bruh.

Well as Ernesto would say...that's No Bueno

 

[Bill]

Imagine what these sauna-like conditions in the Atlantic would be producing if those Saharan dust plumes weren’t keeping the lid on early tropical storm development.

 

[bclemms]

780mb? That's extinction level storm bruh.

Well as Ernesto would say...that's No Bueno

Lol, that's heights not pressure. Pressure at landfall in that scenario is 955.

 

[L7465SSS]

Appreciate all yall weather peeps. I rather get my info from yall.
Question tho? I am in Ponchatoula and supposed to go vaca in Destin Wed. Should that be a hell no or do you think it wont be too bad? Thanks for the input because I sure don't want to be driving in that mess.