2024 Tropical Weather Thread (5 Viewers)

[efil4stnias]

Appreciate all yall weather peeps. I rather get my info from yall.
Question tho? I am in Ponchatoula and supposed to go vaca in Destin Wed. Should that be a hell no or do you think it wont be too bad? Thanks for the input because I sure don't want to be driving in that mess.

You will be fine...that storm model is for 8/14.

 

[bclemms]

Appreciate all yall weather peeps. I rather get my info from yall.
Question tho? I am in Ponchatoula and supposed to go vaca in Destin Wed. Should that be a hell no or do you think it wont be too bad? Thanks for the input because I sure don't want to be driving in that mess.

Unless something radical changes you’ll be fine. In fact, the current storm should make for great weather in Destin. If that model were to pan out then the following Monday you may have to make some decisions so not sure how long you will be there. Either way, I wouldnt make or change plans on any 10 day forecast.

 

[L7465SSS]

Thanks B. Looks like vacation still on.

 

[Snakehead]

Now is a good time to hope the GFS is drunk. Way out in fantasyland but would be Ernesto on the back side of the current storm.

And that's why you don't look at the 276-hr GFS during the summer.

 

[bclemms]

And that's why you don't look at the 276-hr GFS during the summer.

I wouldnt write it off either, it had a tropical storm in the 166hr forecast for a few consecutive runs coming into the gulf from an open wave. That is worth watching.

As for landfall location, like i said, fantasyland.

 

[Snakehead]

I wouldnt write it off either, it had a tropical storm in the 166hr forecast for a few consecutive runs coming into the gulf from an open wave. That is worth watching.

As for landfall location, like i said, fantasyland.

Big difference between a 7-day forecast and a near 12-day forecast. It is picking up on something and that is worth watching.

 

[bclemms]

Big difference between a 7-day forecast and a near 12-day forecast. It is picking up on something and that is worth watching.

Agree, if it was just spinning something up at 12 days wouldn't have mentioned it. It was developing it at 7 days from a wave that already exists.

 

[Snakehead]

TS Debby

 

[bclemms]

Debbie now forecasted to be a hurricane at landfall. It has slowed down quite a bit, has continued to stay south and west of all guidance. Some models are beginning to stall the storm just after landfall and pushing it back out in the gulf. Forecast is still going to be tricky on this one. It may not even poke back out over the Atlantic and could spin out over land. Too many variables to rule anything out ATM.

 

[Sailorsaint]

TS Debby

Glad I’m not in Key West any longer.

 

[Snakehead]

@superchuck500 This track isn't great for Charleston.

 

[ktulu909]

Not trying to gloss over Debby,but I'm worried about what's behind her.

 

[efil4stnias]

@superchuck500 This track isn't great for Charleston.

That is gonna bring 4 days of rain to SC. Dang.

 

[faceman]

That is gonna bring 4 days of rain to SC. Dang.

It made me do a little research. Charleston is flood prone. The search yielded the following.

Sources of flood hazards in Charleston include: the Stono, Ashley, Cooper, and Wando Rivers; Wappoo, Orangegrove, James Island, and Church Creek (riverine flooding); small (drainage of <100sq. acres) mapped and unmapped tidal creeks; and the Atlantic Ocean.

Charleston, South Carolina has been experiencing flooding more frequently than ever before. In 2022, the city had 26 flood events that were rated "moderate" or higher, which was the highest number on record since 1922. In 2023, the city broke that record with 27 such events

 

[superchuck500]

It made me do a little research. Charleston is flood prone. The search yielded the following.

Sources of flood hazards in Charleston include: the Stono, Ashley, Cooper, and Wando Rivers; Wappoo, Orangegrove, James Island, and Church Creek (riverine flooding); small (drainage of <100sq. acres) mapped and unmapped tidal creeks; and the Atlantic Ocean.

Charleston, South Carolina has been experiencing flooding more frequently than ever before. In 2022, the city had 26 flood events that were rated "moderate" or higher, which was the highest number on record since 1922. In 2023, the city broke that record with 27 such events

Yup. It floods here on a king tide - don’t even need rain.

But just for any concern, it would take truly catastrophic water levels for my house to be threatened. And the floods here tend to resolve fairly quickly after tjr storm moves out - so longer term access impacts are unlikely.