2024 Tropical Weather Thread

[faceman]

Latest from Wxman57 at strorm2k. Lets hope he's right.

wxman57 » Wed Jul 31, 2024 8:59 am

DunedinDave wrote:So is it me or does anyone else get Elena vibes when they see the GFS?

Btw, you want a good ole GFS vs Euro battle, this is it because they’re on opposite sides of the spectrum here.

Yeah, that was my thought. I was forecasting Elena back in 1985. Told my mother, who lived on the MS coast, to buy a generator. When it looked like Elena might go to Florida, she was upset that she had spent the money. Elena turned west and raked the MS coast and she was without power for 3 weeks. That generator came in handy.

In this case, the GFS is the extreme outlier. I would not trust it. ICON, which did best with Beryl, has it passing east of Florida. Only 2 of the ICON ensembles take it into the eastern Gulf at all. With increasing convection, there is a greater chance of it staying east of Florida.

 

[Nisey55]

Honestly, ever since Katrina I have a hard time believing any forecast until
landfall is obvious.
In the meantime you know what they say about prepare and hope.

 

[bclemms]

My take, the GFS has been outperforming the Euro the last few years with tropics if you exclude the ghost storms. GFS tends to generate storms on the far end of its range that don't come to fruition. The Euro does not but the GFS extends out further than the Euro and therefore the bias is not 1:1.

With all that said, I don't believe any of the models and the steering currents do break down and this is going to come down to a lot of nuances that haven't been worked out yet. So from my perspective, it's really quite simple. Nobody knows, we just know there is a chance of something happening somewhere so might as well not worry about it, just be prepared to react.

 

[efil4stnias]

GFS has a storm this Sunday off Tampa in GoM. Then crosses over FL to off SC coast, curls back into JAX then off into GoM, skirting coast to Ms.

LOLOL.

Drugs are baaad, mkkkaaay.

 

[bclemms]

GFS has a storm this Sunday off Tampa in GoM. Then crosses over FL to off SC coast, curls back into JAX then off into GoM, skirting coast to Ms.

LOLOL.

Drugs are baaad, mkkkaaay.

I believe the general idea to an extent. Miles and timing are going to matter on how that scenario plays out.

 

[Bill]

It's hard to imagine that there will be much left of that wave after it spends the next couple of day riding over Cuba.

 

[bclemms]

It's hard to imagine that there will be much left of that wave after it spends the next couple of day riding over Cuba.

Mountains will shred a closed low. A wave has no closed low and it wont really make a big difference outside of preventing it from organizing any farther.

 

[Bill]

Mountains will shred a closed low. A wave has no closed low and it wont really make a big difference outside of preventing it from organizing any farther.

Then I guess the future of this storm will be determined by how long it will be in the open Gulf waters. That's the only place it will be able to get its act together.

 

[faceman]

Mountains will shred a closed low. A wave has no closed low and it wont really make a big difference outside of preventing it from organizing any farther.

Yes, there is no closed low at the surface now. That's why no pro met on strorm2k is making a forecast with
confidence right now. you were spot on in your earlier post. They don't know right now. Too many unknowns
at the current time.

 

[faceman]

GFS has a storm this Sunday off Tampa in GoM. Then crosses over FL to off SC coast, curls back into JAX then off into GoM, skirting coast to Ms.

LOLOL.

Drugs are baaad, mkkkaaay.

wouldn't be the first storm to take a crazy path. I wonder what the current models would be doing
if a storm like Betsy hit today

https://www.mysanantonio.com/news/local/slideshow/Strange-paths-Gulf-storms-take-111687.php

 

[buzd]

A couple of days ago, this was 20%. So 1 in 5.

I guarantee about 95% of 20% invests develop into storms. They just gradually up the percentages so nobody notices.

What a shell game.

 

[bclemms]

A couple of days ago, this was 20%. So 1 in 5.

I guarantee about 95% of 20% invests develop into storms. They just gradually up the percentages so nobody notices.

What a shell game.

20% in the next 7 days. It says nothing after 7 days and it has been 40% or more for the last 3 days. It is 100% a guessing game based on model trends. Best anyone can do. Still a chance this thing runs up the Florida peninsula as a broad system and doesnt develop.

To show how dependent this thing is on steering currents, the trough that will eventually pick up this storm or miss it and steer it back West is off the coast of Russia right now.

 

[superchuck500]

20% in the next 7 days. It says nothing after 7 days and it has been 40% or more for the last 3 days. It is 100% a guessing game based on model trends. Best anyone can do. Still a chance this thing runs up the Florida peninsula as a broad system and doesnt develop.

To show how dependent this thing is on steering currents, the trough that will eventually pick up this storm or miss it and steer it back West is off the coast of Russia right now.

The latest NHC update says
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.

 

[faceman]

WxMan 57 said the following is a great website that displays the latest NHC track. You can also check
current temps on land and water,humidity,and precipitation

Potential Tropical Cyclone 04L LIVE Tracker, Updates & Forecast | Zoom Earth

Live tracking map, satellite images and forecasts of Potential Tropical Cyclone 04L 2024 over Cuba. Current wind speed 30mph. Max 65mph.

zoom.earth