2024 Tropical Weather Thread (2 Viewers)

[bclemms]

The perfect example of why we should have a process that allows multiple emoji...

I was proud of that post. Petty, cruel and ironical but kinda funny.

 

[guidomerkinsrules]

You probably thought that was an eye in the center of a hurricane too.

Far be it for me to tell you how to storm chase

 

[Nisey55]

The Saints will have already been eliminated from the playoffs while I am in a Greek named Hurricane.

Thanks Sunshine!

 

[Saintman2884]

A

The Saints will have already been eliminated from the playoffs while I am in a Greek named Hurricane.

At least NOAA and the NHC are getting a little more creative, and imaginative if they start using more elaborate, lesser-known Greek or foreign-sounding names.

Imagine a Category 4-5 major hurricane sort of skirting past Charleston, SC or barely moving past the Outer Banks region named Hurricane Thor or Odin. Insanely unlikely but that's a major kick arse hurricane name for the old Norse god of lightning, harvest, and Viking seafarers/raiders.

"Hurricane Thor barreling down on Cape Fear and the terrified residents of Wilmington, NC with it's mighty, hammer-wielding thunderous winds well over 145 mph as winged Valkries scream in pitched unison at the impending horror as a natural Ragnarok approaches".

 

[Bill]

Hurricane forecasters tracking what could become Tropical Storm Debby

After a three-week lull in activity, the tropical Atlantic Ocean is showing signs of coming alive, forecasters warned Monday.

www.yahoo.com

 

[brandon8283]

Current GFS has a Cat 3 into Lake Charles.

We’re just gonna ignore that one.

 

[bonnjer]

Current GFS has a Cat 3 into Lake Charles.

We’re just gonna ignore that one.

@bclemms, I'm gonna need you to confirm that this is just the GFS being all sorts of drunk a bunch of days out and that no such nonsense will occur.

 

[bclemms]

@bclemms, I'm gonna need you to confirm that this is just the GFS being all sorts of drunk a bunch of days out and that no such nonsense will occur.

GFS is drunk but I can not confirm or deny the possibility of nonsense.

 

[efil4stnias]

Current GFS has a Cat 3 into Lake Charles.

We’re just gonna ignore that one.

In the spirit of the Olympics, we just drop the most terrible one.

 

[Merl]

GFS is drunk but I can not confirm or deny the possibility of nonsense.

Not what I wanted to hear!

 

[brandon8283]

Current GFS has a Cat 3 into Lake Charles.

We’re just gonna ignore that one.

Per @efil4stnias, we have dropped the Cat 3 into Lake Charles in favor of a tropical storm into Pensacola.

 

[faceman]

Latest from Wxman57 at strorm2k. Lets hope he's right.

wxman57 » Wed Jul 31, 2024 8:59 am

DunedinDave wrote:So is it me or does anyone else get Elena vibes when they see the GFS?

Btw, you want a good ole GFS vs Euro battle, this is it because they’re on opposite sides of the spectrum here.

Yeah, that was my thought. I was forecasting Elena back in 1985. Told my mother, who lived on the MS coast, to buy a generator. When it looked like Elena might go to Florida, she was upset that she had spent the money. Elena turned west and raked the MS coast and she was without power for 3 weeks. That generator came in handy.

In this case, the GFS is the extreme outlier. I would not trust it. ICON, which did best with Beryl, has it passing east of Florida. Only 2 of the ICON ensembles take it into the eastern Gulf at all. With increasing convection, there is a greater chance of it staying east of Florida.

 

[Nisey55]

Honestly, ever since Katrina I have a hard time believing any forecast until
landfall is obvious.
In the meantime you know what they say about prepare and hope.

 

[bclemms]

My take, the GFS has been outperforming the Euro the last few years with tropics if you exclude the ghost storms. GFS tends to generate storms on the far end of its range that don't come to fruition. The Euro does not but the GFS extends out further than the Euro and therefore the bias is not 1:1.

With all that said, I don't believe any of the models and the steering currents do break down and this is going to come down to a lot of nuances that haven't been worked out yet. So from my perspective, it's really quite simple. Nobody knows, we just know there is a chance of something happening somewhere so might as well not worry about it, just be prepared to react.

 

[efil4stnias]

GFS has a storm this Sunday off Tampa in GoM. Then crosses over FL to off SC coast, curls back into JAX then off into GoM, skirting coast to Ms.

LOLOL.

Drugs are baaad, mkkkaaay.