2024 Tropical Weather Thread (2 Viewers)

[HoustonGold]

I like the bottle water idea

 

[bclemms]

I know it depends on the intensity it reaches, but if it does come in at Morgan City what kind of effects should Metro New Orleans expect? Lots of rain I would guess, but what kind of wind?

Way too hard to predict. If I had to take a wild arse guess, I'd say 50 mph with some 70mph gusts. Rain could be an issue but surge could be the biggest issue in some places outside the levee protection system. I'd say a little more powerful version of Barry. That should be a little more accurate than a magic 8 ball.

 

[efil4stnias]

Sure glad i got the 4 to 5 foot in diameter pine tree that was 20 feet from my house cut down last year. Way to much stress wondering when the next storm would drop it into my kitchen and bedroom.

so pine trees- many dont know this....the reason they "snap" at 10-20 ft up, is because of their "tap root" which can extend down into ground up to 60 ft ( aside from their other root system that feeds as well )

they are more "sturdy" underground than above lol

 

[Hubig]

Doesn't take much to knock out power in the metro area's of Jefferson Parish and Orleans Parish. We lose power to afternoon summer rain storms or sometimes it can be a normal day and poof.

Have a feeling this one is gonna gonna do one of those rapid intensifying things.

 

[HoustonGold]

Still waiting on hearing City of New Orleans plans. Nothing on X

River Parishes have sandbag locations

 

[RaginSaint93]

Costco in Lafayette was a zoo

 

[jayd265]

need to go make a vodka run to make sure I have enough for a hurricane

 

[Bill]

This looks like some pretty rapid intensification.
Just how favorable are the conditions for having this thing strengthen significantly before landfall???

 

[perret318]

This looks like some pretty rapid intensification.
Just how favorable are the conditions for having this thing strengthen significantly before landfall???

It's going to intensify until shortly before landfall, so it's got all night tonight, then all day tomorrow and part of Wednesday. Then it'll hit that same cold front that's giving us this nice weather, which should introduce some dry air and sheer, which should at least halt intensification. Timing is the question. If it hits the sheer sooner, it could take it down a peg before landfall, but don't count on much.

 

[efil4stnias]

It's going to intensify until shortly before landfall, so it's got all night tonight, then all day tomorrow and part of Wednesday. Then it'll hit that same cold front that's giving us this nice weather, which should introduce some dry air and sheer, which should at least halt intensification. Timing is the question. If it hits the sheer sooner, it could take it down a peg before landfall, but don't count on much.

Fox8 alert just said Cat 2 by landfall.

 

[St. Widge]

It appears the track has shifted a little bit West for now.

 

[Swamprat]

need to go make a vodka run to make sure I have enough for a hurricane

In a pinch, you can use bourbon.... this was tested and approved during Beryl... hahaha

 

[faceman]

All hurricane guidance has now pushed farther east and closer to global models. Next runs should have good center fix now that it has a core. NHC updated track looks much more in line with what I was thinking. Cone pushes all the way out to Bay St. Louis with a center fix somewhere near Morgan City.

With the hurricane guidance taking the early TX landfall out of play it makes the forecast confidence much higher and anything west of Bolivar Peninsula seems unlikely. I'm guessing tonight's model runs will be locked in with a high degree of certainty.

In addition, we are looking at high astronomical tides so this is going to be a surge event from Dauphin Island, AL to the landfall point. Places like LaPlace, northshore, southern LA coast and MS gulf coast will see impacts. Degree of impacts could vary significantly based on track, intensity and size. Places like Cocodrie, Cypremort Point and Grand Isle could see significant surge up to 10' depending on variables.

The intensity is the biggest concern. I say chances of a hurricane have jumped to at least 75% this morning based on the explosive development far earlier than models indicated. Chances of a major hurricane have increased some as well but not much. This will be less predictable than track.

The fishing piers off Bayview Ave.on the back bay of Biloxi are about to go underwater. I'll be taking a different route
to work the next few days

 

[Madmarsha]

Costco in Lafayette was a zoo

Cos they heard Jim Cantore was coming.

 

[Madmarsha]

It appears the track has shifted a little bit West for now.