2024 Tropical Weather Thread (22 Viewers)

[superchuck500]

forking hell these GFS runs are disgusting.

934mb off central LA coast - yikes


Euro has the low in the same place, just not as deep. That would seem to be concerning.

 

[guidomerkinsrules]

It is noted that you did NOT take us up on our most sincere offer to accompany you to purchase said car. All we would have asked is that you bring the beer...

What did you get? I hope no trees fall on it.

I lit the signal fires to rally y’all, but storm doused them.
no trees all leaves
Like half of Uptown I was parked on Napoleon neutral ground
2019 VW Jetta
dang good car so far (except the dang Apple CarPlay and passenger seat chime)

 

[bclemms]

934mb off central LA coast - yikes


Euro has the low in the same place, just not as deep. That would seem to be concerning.

I saw this about 5 hours ago. I wasn't going to be the one that mentioned it first as I would never be forgiven.

 

[brandon8283]

I saw this about 5 hours ago. I wasn't going to be the one that mentioned it first as I would never be forgiven.

We Brandons have to look out for each other.

 

[jayd265]

Still looks bad at 6am.

 

[bclemms]

Still looks bad at 6am.

Yeah, alarm bells are starting to play in the background. The GFS is pissed and it doesn't stop with this storm. Hopefully it's all wrong. Another day of model runs like yesterday and panic is going to take over all along the gulf coast.

 

[Nisey55]

Yeah, alarm bells are starting to play in the background. The GFS is pissed and it doesn't stop with this storm. Hopefully it's all wrong. Another day of model runs like yesterday and panic is going to take over all along the gulf coast.

When you look at the radar it doesn't show any moisture in the system, or very little. Used to seeing some rain involved.

 

[HoustonGold]

I’ll wait for Bruce Katz’s track. Besides we got a cold front coming in 9 days. It probably goes east this time to Florida.

 

[efil4stnias]

934mb off central LA coast - yikes


Euro has the low in the same place, just not as deep. That would seem to be concerning.

 

[St. Widge]

Just so I can create the maximum amount of anxiety in my life, when do they do new GFS models? Is it just once per day at 7:00 a.m. or more?

 

[efil4stnias]

Just so I can create the maximum amount of anxiety in my life,

Right? i mean for Petes sake...enough already.

 

[SaintRob]

When you look at the radar it doesn't show any moisture in the system, or very little. Used to seeing some rain involved.

There's really nothing there at the moment. I think what models are suggesting is that there's a developing dip in the jet stream through the eastern gulf, converging with a westerly flow in the Caribbean that creates a circular motion in the area between the Yucatan and south of Cuba. The expectation is that this will develop into a tropical system.

 

[HoustonGold]

The one I’m looking at has it hitting Florida between Tampa and Tallahassee. Of course this lots of guessing right now. Nothing has formed yet.

 

[St. Widge]

Right? i mean for Petes sake...enough already.

I can't help but think life was less anxious when we didn't have these long range projections letting us know that life as we know if will be over in 10 days. I mean, I wonder how many times this level of doom showed up on some model over the years that I just didn't know about and as a result saved myself 10 days of anxiety.

But, now that I know they are out there, I can't help but look at them. Intellectually I know they are just models, they constantly change, and are very unlikely to get anything right this far out. Afterall, they often can't get this precise even a day or two before a storm makes landfall. But it's emotionally draining this time of year.

 

[St. Widge]

The one I’m looking at has it hitting Florida between Tampa and Tallahassee. Of course this lots of guessing right now. Nothing has formed yet.

I think that's the latest GFS run. Last night it showed a direct hit around Vermillion Bay with the size of the storm pretty much so covering everything from Lake Charles to Mobile. The latest one does show landfall around the Florida big bend but it looks like it strafes across most of SELA, Alabama, and Mississippi coast before landfall in Florida.