2024 Tropical Weather Thread (17 Viewers)

[guidomerkinsrules]

I think that's the latest GFS run. Last night it showed a direct hit around Vermillion Bay with the size of the storm pretty much so covering everything from Lake Charles to Mobile. The latest one does show landfall around the Florida big bend but it looks like it strafes across most of SELA, Alabama, and Mississippi coast before landfall in Florida.

boy did you not follow your own advice

 

[bclemms]

There's really nothing there at the moment. I think what models are suggesting is that there's a developing dip in the jet stream through the eastern gulf, converging with a westerly flow in the Caribbean that creates a circular motion in the area between the Yucatan and south of Cuba. The expectation is that this will develop into a tropical system.

Correct. It's a gyre in which models are starting development. All indications are that this development will have a massive wind field. This means widespread impacts are likely even if it is a weak system. The significance of those impacts will vary greatly by exact track and strength which is impossible to know right now. Again, all of this is just a signal even if that signal is very pronounced it still does not mean it is certain to happen.

I can't help but think life was less anxious when we didn't have these long range projections letting us know that life as we know if will be over in 10 days. I mean, I wonder how many times this level of doom showed up on some model over the years that I just didn't know about and as a result saved myself 10 days of anxiety.

But, now that I know they are out there, I can't help but look at them. Intellectually I know they are just models, they constantly change, and are very unlikely to get anything right this far out. Afterall, they often can't get this precise even a day or two before a storm makes landfall. But it's emotionally draining this time of year.

This is what I struggle with all the time and most forecasters that are more than hype.

It's like hey, this is likely to impact you in 8-12 days. It's also likely that whatever solution being presented today is wrong. Just mentioning it sets off anxiety for many. Not mentioning it leads people into planning without knowing all the information.

My dad calls me today in panic not really understanding the difference between a model 11 days out and radar. His friend on facebook said a cat 5 was coming into the gulf and posted a 928mb giant in the central gulf. People are stupid and either they do not care how it impacts others, they are naive to the way it impacts others or a combination of both.

It's like a golfer than screams "FORE" even though the ball is probably not going to hit the person it is flying towards. If you don't give them a heads up you are an butt crevasse. If you do scream it then you make someone scramble for likely no reason. The only difference here is this happens over and over again for 10 days straight with hurricane forecasts.


What I look for is run to run consistency and multiple models showing at least a similar upper air pattern. Then it's like "hey, this is worth monitoring". I don't put social media posts out there with this stuff because there is so much noise that I don't want to add to it. However, I do feel like I can contribute to SR and add in these long range updates when I start getting confident that there will at least be a storm that could impact land.

Once the storm gets going, I just try to remind everyone to ignore category number and the center line because impacts can extend well away from the center and the center line is rarely what gets hit. If this forms and is the size the models are currently indicating this is going to be more true than ever. A hurricane of that size and intensity on the GFS would flood Tampa even if the landfall is in Panama City. So everyone should be monitoring this and nobody should be panicked and nothing should be taken off the table.

 

[St. Widge]

boy did you not follow your own advice

I almost never do.

 

[St. Widge]

Correct. It's a gyre in which models are starting development. All indications are that this development will have a massive wind field. This means widespread impacts are likely even if it is a weak system. The significance of those impacts will vary greatly by exact track and strength which is impossible to know right now. Again, all of this is just a signal even if that signal is very pronounced it still does not mean it is certain to happen.

This is what I struggle with all the time and most forecasters that are more than hype.

It's like hey, this is likely to impact you in 8-12 days. It's also likely that whatever solution being presented today is wrong. Just mentioning it sets off anxiety for many. Not mentioning it leads people into planning without knowing all the information.

My dad calls me today in panic not really understanding the difference between a model 11 days out and radar. His friend on facebook said a cat 5 was coming into the gulf and posted a 928mb giant in the central gulf. People are stupid and either they do not care how it impacts others, they are naive to the way it impacts others or a combination of both.

It's like a golfer than screams "FORE" even though the ball is probably not going to hit the person it is flying towards. If you don't give them a heads up you are an butt crevasse. If you do scream it then you make someone scramble for likely no reason. The only difference here is this happens over and over again for 10 days straight with hurricane forecasts.


What I look for is run to run consistency and multiple models showing at least a similar upper air pattern. Then it's like "hey, this is worth monitoring". I don't put social media posts out there with this stuff because there is so much noise that I don't want to add to it. However, I do feel like I can contribute to SR and add in these long range updates when I start getting confident that there will at least be a storm that could impact land.

Once the storm gets going, I just try to remind everyone to ignore category number and the center line because impacts can extend well away from the center and the center line is rarely what gets hit. If this forms and is the size the models are currently indicating this is going to be more true than ever. A hurricane of that size and intensity on the GFS would flood Tampa even if the landfall is in Panama City. So everyone should be monitoring this and nobody should be panicked and nothing should be taken off the table.

I always appreciate the heads up and the restraint you show. As much as this stuff creates anxiety, we do need to know about the possibilities because planning even the little things like making sure you have meds, pet meds, pet food, etc. for evacuation or batteries and water to hunker down takes time. I've honestly been a bit lax in hurricane prep this year because the season had been so quiet, and Louisiana had been so quite for two years, so it's good to get a wakeup call every now and then.

But you are right that it does cause panic in some. I never mention these long range projections to my wife or daughter because it's only going to make them as anxious as me and as long as one person is looking at it and planning, there is no point in making them anxious over something that likely isn't going to happen or if it does will happen in 10 days or so.

 

[Nisey55]

Just so I can create the maximum amount of anxiety in my life, when do they do new GFS models? Is it just once per day at 7:00 a.m. or more?

Meds work wonders. I have anxiety issues and phobias. The phobias are worse. I got a very long awaited injection in my spine this morning, I couldn't wait but was anxious about it at the same time. I took a half dose of my med and poof I was fine. Of course now I'm worried that it won't work.

 

[efil4stnias]

Meds work wonders. I have anxiety issues and phobias. The phobias are worse. I got a very long awaited injection in my spine this morning, I couldn't wait but was anxious about it at the same time. I took a half dose of my med and poof I was fine. Of course now I'm worried that it won't work.

well if its any consolation, i pass out when i give blood. ( even for routine wellness )

every time. Now to the point that when i have to give blood, i get so worked up that its inevitable.

so i get the reclining chair for bloodwork and low dose valium for any procedure that requires me to be stuck with needle lol.

 

[Dago]

Might want to consider this before investing in a whole home generator.

Several neighborhoods in Thibodaux were unable to run their whole house generators during Francine

Now, Cundiff is wondering if the money he spent on the generator was worth it.

www.wwltv.com

“The Generac was starving for fuel. So, it was revving and tapering and revving and tapering and the lights were doing the same thing, and it sent a fault code and shut itself off," Cundiff said.
Cundiff invested in his whole home generator after Hurricane Ida. He estimates the majority of his neighbors in the Acadia Woods subdivision have them, totaling more than a million dollars in generators combined.
“Ida came, and we were nearly two weeks without power and so we made the decision, but it was in excess of $20,000 to purchase and install," Cundiff said.
Several neighborhoods in Thibodaux, including Acadia Woods, were unable to run their whole house generator after Hurricane Francine made landfall due to the high demand of natural gas causing a drop in pressure.

 

[guidomerkinsrules]

just saying





that thing freaked me out on Jonny Quest

 

[HoustonGold]

Orr says take a chill pill the models are not in agreement.



So if it does form it will be anywhere from southern Mexico to southern Florida .

 

[HoustonGold]

This guy has it all figured out. Why is nobody listening to him?

 

[ktulu909]

Orr says take a chill pill they are models not in agreement.



So if it does form it will be anywhere from southern Mexico to southern Florida .

Also take into consideration that post was nearly a day and a half ago. This very much has my attention.

 

[St. Widge]

well if its any consolation, i pass out when i give blood. ( even for routine wellness )

every time. Now to the point that when i have to give blood, i get so worked up that its inevitable.

so i get the reclining chair for bloodwork and low dose valium for any procedure that requires me to be stuck with needle lol.

I'm not quite as bad as you, but I am not good with blood. I don't like blood tests but I'm okay if I just don't look and I have been fine with IVs in my hand during hospital stays. But, the three times I tried to give blood, I passed out each time either right after or a few seconds after they stuck the needle in.

 

[St. Widge]

Might want to consider this before investing in a whole home generator.

Several neighborhoods in Thibodaux were unable to run their whole house generators during Francine

Now, Cundiff is wondering if the money he spent on the generator was worth it.

www.wwltv.com

“The Generac was starving for fuel. So, it was revving and tapering and revving and tapering and the lights were doing the same thing, and it sent a fault code and shut itself off," Cundiff said.
Cundiff invested in his whole home generator after Hurricane Ida. He estimates the majority of his neighbors in the Acadia Woods subdivision have them, totaling more than a million dollars in generators combined.
“Ida came, and we were nearly two weeks without power and so we made the decision, but it was in excess of $20,000 to purchase and install," Cundiff said.
Several neighborhoods in Thibodaux, including Acadia Woods, were unable to run their whole house generator after Hurricane Francine made landfall due to the high demand of natural gas causing a drop in pressure.

Companies are ripping people off on whole home generators. My brother got one installed a year before Ida and it cost him $8,000. I called last year about getting one and the lowest estimate I got was $20,000.

 

[St. Widge]

that thing freaked me out on Jonny Quest

It was only freaky looking after they thew the paint on it.

 

[HoustonGold]

Anywhere in that area