COVID-19 Outbreak (Update: More than 2.9M cases and 132,313 deaths in US) (6 Viewers)

[DaveXA]

The IHME has new revised modeling out this morning. (That's the Institute for Health Metrics Evaluation (Univ. of Washington) - and they release weekly updates based on a very wide set of data).

They have revised the death toll through July up to more than 137,000. The primary driver for the upward revision is "significant increase in mobility" - this data point is gathered from cell phone pings to show how active a location is (how much people are moving around).

Not at all surprising to me. Gonna get worse before it gets better. Possibly a lot worse depending on location.

 

[James Spader]

Which part? I have already posted the preprint article that states their are at least two strains with one being more infectious. I don't think its questionable at this point that there is more than one strain. As for the differing functions that was why I used the word possible because that hasn't been proven yet.

Here is a study that points out there are at least 2 strains. They name L and S type.

On the origin and continuing evolution of SARS-CoV-2

Abstract. The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic started in late December 2019 in Wuhan, China, and has since impacted a large portion of China and raised major global concern

academic.oup.com

Here is the preprint that claims there are different strains with one being more contagious.

Spike mutation pipeline reveals the emergence of a more transmissible form of SARS-CoV-2

We have developed an analysis pipeline to facilitate real-time mutation tracking in SARS-CoV-2, focusing initially on the Spike (S) protein because it mediates infection of human cells and is the target of most vaccine strategies and antibody-based therapeutics. To date we have identified...

www.biorxiv.org

Another preprint that suggests 30 different strains with some capable of producing higher viral loads than others (up to 270 times higher in some cases). Didn't we discuss a while back how a higher viral load leads to more severe disease? Chuck?

Patient-derived mutations impact pathogenicity of SARS-CoV-2

The sudden outbreak of the severe acute respiratory syndrome–coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has spread globally with more than 1,300,000 patients diagnosed and a death toll of 70,000. Current genomic survey data suggest that single nucleotide variants (SNVs) are abundant. However, no mutation has been...

www.medrxiv.org

Another paper showing 3 different strains.

Phylogenetic network analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genomes

This is a phylogenetic network of SARS-CoV-2 genomes sampled from across the world. These genomes are closely related and under evolutionary selection in their human hosts, sometimes with parallel evolution events, that is, the same virus mutation emerges in two different human hosts. This makes...

www.pnas.org

There are more if you feel like taking the time to search for them.

I think you proved it. Nice work my man.

 

[RazorOye]

Lowest number of new COVID-19 cases reported in Ontario since March

Health officials reported another dip in new COVID-19 cases in Ontario on Sunday morning with 294 new confirmed cases.

toronto.ctvnews.ca

Fewest number of daily cases reported in the entire months of April and May - and the fewest recorded deaths since April 26.

 

[St. Widge]

So, Governor Edwards will be announcing tomorrow whether he is lifting the stay at Home Order for Louisiana on May 15 or extending it. Below is a link to a Nola.com article with charts for each region in Louisiana. The green on the graphs indicated decline. Looking at the graphs, most of the state has been in decline, although not always for 14 days as is supposed to be required, and two areas, are only plateauing with no decline. Based on my understanding of the Phase Plan, that should lead to the conclusion that Louisiana is not ready as a state to enter Phase One. Of course, I'm sure we will open anyway because this decision will be based on politics, not science or numbers, and the State GOP is putting huge pressure on Edwards to open up, even attempting to override his order in the legislature.

https://www.nola.com/news/coronavirus/article_02f85d78-922e-11ea-918b-2b067747c808.html

On a more general point, I get that the New Orleans area, along with the folks down on The Bayou are doing great and are really for a careful reopening, but much of the rest of the state clearly is not. Even the North Shore doesn't look ready. So, I'm sure that the virus will just quickly spread to Orleans again, but this time from North Shore commuters instead of from New York.

 

[Bayouboy]

So, Governor Edwards will be announcing tomorrow whether he is lifting the stay at Home Order for Louisiana on May 15 or extending it. Below is a link to a Nola.com article with charts for each region in Louisiana. The green on the graphs indicated decline. Looking at the graphs, most of the state has been in decline, although not always for 14 days as is supposed to be required, and two areas, are only plateauing with no decline. Based on my understanding of the Phase Plan, that should lead to the conclusion that Louisiana is not ready as a state to enter Phase One. Of course, I'm sure we will open anyway because this decision will be based on politics, not science or numbers, and the State GOP is putting huge pressure on Edwards to open up, even attempting to override his order in the legislature.

https://www.nola.com/news/coronavirus/article_02f85d78-922e-11ea-918b-2b067747c808.html

On a more general point, I get that the New Orleans area, along with the folks down on The Bayou are doing great and are really for a careful reopening, but much of the rest of the state clearly is not. Even the North Shore doesn't look ready. So, I'm sure that the virus will just quickly spread to Orleans again, but this time from North Shore commuters instead of from New York.

If you venture out, you will see the "stay at home order" has already been lifted. Folks are everywhere in mass numbers. Move to Phase 1 so other small businesses can capitalize on the influx of customers looking to spend money.

 

[St. Widge]

If you venture out, you will see the "stay at home order" has already been lifted. Folks are everywhere in mass numbers. Move to Phase 1 so other small businesses can capitalize on the influx of customers looking to spend money.

Oh, I know people have already self-lifted. And, I know you have been touting the fork it, people are ignoring it so lets just open approach, but I do know what difference you think officially going to Phase One is going to make for small businesses.

Frankly, the people ignoring it now will continue to act the same and the people who are complying with the order are not going to suddenly run out and go to every store in town. Both groups are going to continue doing what they are doing so I don't think it would make much difference. They only thing that would make a difference is either the Stay at Home Order actually being enforced or a vaccine/treatment being developed. Although, I will say that the Stay at Home Order is the only thing stopping some businesses from jamming 60 to 70 people on each floor of high rise office buildings in New Orleans.

And even if I am wrong, and lifting the Order will make everyone go out and spend money, that is only going to make the second wave much worse much faster. And we are going to end up the same as we were in late March in a few weeks.

 

[bonnjer]

So, Governor Edwards will be announcing tomorrow whether he is lifting the stay at Home Order for Louisiana on May 15 or extending it. Below is a link to a Nola.com article with charts for each region in Louisiana. The green on the graphs indicated decline. Looking at the graphs, most of the state has been in decline, although not always for 14 days as is supposed to be required, and two areas, are only plateauing with no decline. Based on my understanding of the Phase Plan, that should lead to the conclusion that Louisiana is not ready as a state to enter Phase One. Of course, I'm sure we will open anyway because this decision will be based on politics, not science or numbers, and the State GOP is putting huge pressure on Edwards to open up, even attempting to override his order in the legislature.

https://www.nola.com/news/coronavirus/article_02f85d78-922e-11ea-918b-2b067747c808.html

On a more general point, I get that the New Orleans area, along with the folks down on The Bayou are doing great and are really for a careful reopening, but much of the rest of the state clearly is not. Even the North Shore doesn't look ready. So, I'm sure that the virus will just quickly spread to Orleans again, but this time from North Shore commuters instead of from New York.

I'd be willing to bet that he'll lift the order. I think the pressure and backlash will be too great for him to extend it. Should he extend it? Yes. At least through the end of May. But even if he does, people won't follow it. They aren't following it now.

 

[bonnjer]

And even if I am wrong, and lifting the Order will make everyone go out and spend money, that is only going to make the second wave much worse much faster. And we are going to end up the same as we were in late March in a few weeks.

We have Memorial Day coming up quickly. Lots of gatherings to kick off summer. If that doesn't get us, then there's always July 4th.

 

[Rickboy]

Dr Mike does a fact check on the Plandemic video.

 

[FootballLady]

So, Governor Edwards will be announcing tomorrow whether he is lifting the stay at Home Order for Louisiana on May 15 or extending it. Below is a link to a Nola.com article with charts for each region in Louisiana. The green on the graphs indicated decline. Looking at the graphs, most of the state has been in decline, although not always for 14 days as is supposed to be required, and two areas, are only plateauing with no decline. Based on my understanding of the Phase Plan, that should lead to the conclusion that Louisiana is not ready as a state to enter Phase One. Of course, I'm sure we will open anyway because this decision will be based on politics, not science or numbers, and the State GOP is putting huge pressure on Edwards to open up, even attempting to override his order in the legislature.

https://www.nola.com/news/coronavirus/article_02f85d78-922e-11ea-918b-2b067747c808.html

On a more general point, I get that the New Orleans area, along with the folks down on The Bayou are doing great and are really for a careful reopening, but much of the rest of the state clearly is not. Even the North Shore doesn't look ready. So, I'm sure that the virus will just quickly spread to Orleans again, but this time from North Shore commuters instead of from New York.

VERY few people in mandeville/Covington wearing PPE when out. I wad not surprised by the numbers

 

[El Caliente]

I hate this virus, but I hate people who peddle in disinformation more. Politicians, medical professionals, the media. This is a deliberate mutilation of a public service message. Now I want those little spin-happy bastages caught and hung up by their Buster Browns!

 

[Booker]

The IHME has new revised modeling out this morning. (That's the Institute for Health Metrics Evaluation (Univ. of Washington) - and they release weekly updates based on a very wide set of data).

They have revised the death toll through July up to more than 137,000. The primary driver for the upward revision is "significant increase in mobility" - this data point is gathered from cell phone pings to show how active a location is (how much people are moving around).

That’s been my expectation, with things starting to open back up now, that in about two months we’re going to see things start to spike again. Allow a couple weeks for people to start circulating and increasing contraction, a couple more after that to increase the spread, a couple more for symptoms to show up, and a couple more to see an increase in mortality figures.

August will be interesting to watch, barring further stay home orders, to see if the numbers hold or subside.

 

[faceman]

Does anyone else find that BIG BIG BIG Clearance sale sign a tad ominous and perhaps a big of foreshadowing?

Can't tell what's under the sign. It's most likely winter clothing which can be bought cheap this time of the year

 

[Goatman Saint]

I think you proved it. Nice work my man.

First article talks about the S and L strains. It says the more deadly strain has been replaced by the more communicable, yet less deadly strain in complete contradiction to people saying it’s gotten worse. However it is sprinkled heavily with may, possibly and appears as qualifiers in a non peer reviewed article. The second one talks about mutations, but then proceeds to state this. p = 4.8e-06,median 25, IR 21-28, versus median 19, IR 21-25) (Fig. S5) (Liu et al., 2020). There was, however, no significant correlation found between D614G status and hospitalization status; although the G614 mutation was slightly enriched among the ICU subjects, this was not statistically significant. So, once again, everyone knows it mutates, but nothing has been said it makes it any more infectious or deadly. This is also liberally sprinkled with mays, possibly, seems and mights.

The third article Now has this on top of it. https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/05/06/2007295117 Which is essentially saying the methods used in the collection and the analysis of the data is unreliable. So pretty much undercuts the article off the bat.

So your 3 articles that you used to prove your point are flawed, not peer reviewed, in publicly published journals requiring no proof (think less than Wikipedia), and so loaded with mays, possiblies, mights, seems and appears to lose all credibility as proof.

So, if you’re going to make the statement that it is mutating and becoming more dangerous, these did not do it.

 

[sfidc3]

Can't tell what's under the sign. It's most likely winter clothing which can be bought cheap this time of the year

Face my friend, I was alluding to the probability that at least some of those idiots are probably going to be infected with the virus if this behavior continues...and I have little doubt it will....